Regan's Rumblings: 10 (Somewhat) Bold Predictions

There several definitions of the word "bold," but for the purposes of this piece, we'll go with this one from Dictionary.com:

beyond the usual limits of conventional thought or action;

A bold prediction isn't that Corey Kluber may take a small step back (he probably will) or that Mike Trout will steal more than 16 bases (he will).

"Bold" also isn't being completely outlandish and saying Alex Rodriguez will hit 40 home runs (he won't) or setting the over/under on Troy Tulowitzki games played at 160.5 (I'll take the WAY under). Let's look at 10 predictions that fall somewhere between. I tried to keep these fairly reasonable.

1. Paul Goldschmidt will lead the NL in home runs with 45

Fresh off a 36-homer season in 2013, Goldschmidt put up an impressive .300/.396/.542 line last year, but a broken hand resulted in just 406 at-bats for the season. It's important to note that it was a hand, not a wrist, which for a power hitter would have been far more troubling. Fully healed and in his prime at that magical age 27, Goldschmidt should be a monster this year. He led the league in flyball distance last year and was in a virtual tie for the top spot in 2013, so when he gets the ball in the air, it tends to go a long way. He's as safe a top-five pick as they come, as he'll also run enough to steal 12-15 bases.

2. Starling Marte will be a top-20 fantasy player

Marte's 2014 slash (.291/.356/.453) is a 25-point OPS improvement over 2013, but he really came on in the second half last year, batting .348/.408/.567 while cutting his K% from 27.7 to just 18.0. Given the presence of Andrew McCutchen and the highly-touted rookie Gregory Polanco alongside him in the Pittsburgh outfield, Marte flew a bit under the radar, but after 2015, that won't be possible. The Pirates are reportedly looking at batting Marte fifth, which probably impacts his SB totals while improving his run-producing opportunities. Perhaps instead of 50 RBI and 35 SB, we're looking at 80 RBI and 25 SB. I am targeting him in all leagues.

3. Yasmany Tomas will be a bust

This isn't based solely on the fact that Tomas is 7-for-33 with a 7:1 K:BB this spring, as he has the tools to hit major league pitching. What concerns me are the negative reports about his focus in the field. And really, not playing due to a "headache"? Now, I've had family members with migraines and they can be debilitating, but if it were that serious, we would have heard about it. He also hit a so-so .290/.346/.450 last year in Cuba, though perhaps those numbers were impacted by a wrist injury. Scouts have also expressed concerns over his ability to hit breaking stuff, and when you add it all up, there is bust potential here. After all, not every Cuban can come here and have the success of a Jose Abreu or Yasiel Puig, right?

4. Your AL Rookie of the Year: Carlos Rodon

I just can't get over the fact that the Astros could have drafted Kris Bryant and Rodon in successive drafts but instead ended up with Mark Appel and a guy (Brady Aiken) they never signed. Anyway, Rodon has been up and down a bit this spring, but he's big-league ready after fanning 38 in just 24.2 innings in an abbreviated 2014 pro debut in the minors. He's competing with Hector Noesi to fill in for the injured Chris Sale (foot), but it won't be long before he's a fixture in the team's rotation. There is some concerns that the White Sox will have him be a multi-inning reliever to build up his workload, but for now, all signs point to Rodon remaining a starter.

5. J.D. Martinez will hit .300 with 25 home runs

One of my better moves in the RotoWire Staff League was picking Martinez up off waivers, though I had no idea he'd go on to hit .315/.358/.553 in 123 games. After a hot start in the first half, Martinez hit an inevitable slump in August, likely leading many owners to either cut bait or think "well, at least I got THAT out of him." He then rebounded to bat .354/.411/.594 in September and will enter his age-27 season as a full-time starter. Martinez has some bust potential given his mediocre pre-2014 track record, subpar 6.3 BB% last year, and his inflated 19.5 percent HR/FB rate, but I think his floor is .280-20-75, and you should still be able to get him at a decent price. If you look at his hit charts, Martinez has become a much more well-rounded hitter, having learned to go with the pitch to the opposite field far more than in past years. I think he's a legitimate threat to go .300-25-85.

6. Bryce Harper will win the NL MVP

I'm fairly confident the Nationals are going to win the NL East, and it's possible they wind up winning 100 games with that pitching staff. MVPs often come from winning teams, and this year will be no exception. Harper hit a disappointing .273/.344/.423 last year with 13 homers in 352 at-bats in a season shortened by a thumb injury. He admitted the thumb affected him last year, but 10 of his 13 homers came in August/September, and I like that he showed improvement versus lefties. Harper also hit three home runs in four postseason games if you recall, and it's amazing to think that at 22, he already has nearly 1,500 MLB PA and that he's still a few years away from his prime. I think this is the year we see a breakout to the tune of .295/.375/.550 with 35 home runs, 120 RBI and 12 stolen bases.

7. Yasmani Grandal is a top-five catcher

Grandal was arguably a top-10 catcher last year after hitting 15 home runs and posting a .225/.327/.401 slash with the Padres, but there's reason to expect improvement this year with the Dodgers. First, Grandal batted just .162/.323/.189 versus LHP a year ago, but he put some of the blame on his surgically-repaired right knee, which affected him more hitting right-handed than left. Second, Dodger Stadium quietly plays as much more of a home run park than pitcher-friendly Petco. Next, he's now a full year removed from the PED suspension and the ACL tear. He's healthy and ready to be productive. Finally, he has the prospect pedigree that I like. Former No. 12 overall pick who hit at every minor league stop prior to his MLB debut in 2012. It wouldn't shock me to see him bat .260/.360/.460 with 20-25 home runs and 70-80 RBI.

8. Steve Souza will be runner-up to Carlos Rodon in the AL ROY vote

No, minor league production doesn't always translate at the big-league level, but it often does, and Souza has clearly proven he deserves to at least get a look as a starting outfielder. Here are his OPS totals the last three minor league seasons: .938, .944, 1.004. There are certainly flaws in Souza's game, primarily a strikeout rate that was in the 23-percent range in some minor league seasons, but dropped to an acceptable 18.4 percent in Triple-A last year. His .350 BA in Triple-A was supported by a .407 BABIP, leaving it tough for me to predict more than .280 in the big leagues, but in 722 minor league games, Souza averaged 21 homers and 35 stolen bases per 162 games, giving him an enticing power/speed combination for fantasy owners. If I had to guess, I'd put his slash around .280/.330/.470 with 22 HR and 18 SB.

9. This year's Corey Kluber: Teammate Carlos Carrasco

It's tough to say that Carrasco is going to rack up 269 strikeouts and win the AL Cy Young a la Kluber, but after making some adjustments the Indians' bullpen midseason, Carrasco was a different guy down the stretch. In his last 10 starts, Carrasco posted a 1.30 ERA, 10.2 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9. He was as highly-ranked prospect in the Phillies' organization, and now instead of being destined for middle-relief, he has a chance to be a dominant No. 2 to Kluber's No. 1. You don't see this sort of spike often, but some mechanical adjustments resulted in Carrasco averaging a whopping 95.3 mph with his fastball this year, and while some of that is due to his relief stint (pitchers generally throw harder as relievers than starters), it's still a significant increase over his 2009 rookie season (92.3 mph). Carrasco also developed his slider to the point where he threw it 21.4 percent of the time versus 10 percent the previous year. His changeup became a plus pitch, and when you put it all together, the net result was batters swinging and missing more often (13 percent swinging strike rate vs. 9 percent in 2014). With a 2.44 FIP, Carrasco's 2.55 ERA was no fluke, and though some regression over a larger sample size of 200-plus innings is possible, I see no reason why Carrasco can't post a sub-3.00 ERA with 200-plus strikeouts.

10. Kris Bryant will make his big-league debut not on Opening Day, but on April 17

Since everyone else is chiming in on Bryant, I thought I'd add my two cents. This isn't a bold prediction by any means, but a sound and rational decision by the Cubs. By delaying Bryant's free agency from after the 2020 season a year to 2021, they will save millions and control a potential All-Star an additional season. We saw these sort of maneuverings with Gregory Polanco and George Springer last year, so this is nothing new, but Bryant is hands down baseball's top prospect. And oh, he's hitting .435/.500/1.304 through 23 spring at-bats with twice as many home runs (six) as the guys tied for second this spring. Mike Olt is having a solid spring, but let's not kid ourselves. Bryant has the potential (unless he moves to the outfield) to be the Cubs' best third baseman of all-time, perhaps even surpassing the late, great Ron Santo and the more-recent Aramis Ramirez. I'd guess the following production for 2015: 145 games, .265/.350/.510., 28 HR, 90 RBI, eight SB.

If you're looking for a few baseball (or college hoops) non-fantasy related predictions:

• "With the No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft, the Philadelphia Phillies select ..."

• First manager to be fired: Fredi Gonzalez

• Pete Rose will never be in the Hall of Fame

• The Nationals and White Sox will square off in the World Series

• Notre Dame will stun Kentucky in the Elite Eight