This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
We have four down and now move out west with just two to go in my six-part series on some key arms to watch in each of baseball's divisions. As you know, these pitchers may be primed for a breakout, ready to take a significant step forward or they might be on the precipice, more likely to tumble into the abyss. In either case, you will want to be aware of these hurlers on draft day 2015. Let's get to it this week with:
Seven Arms to Watch in the AL West
Derek Holland (TEX) - I'm a Holland fan. Simple. No secret. I was enthusiastic heading into last season, but he experienced a January knee injury that cost him almost the entire year, and I had to wait until September to watch him plying his trade. His velocity was down a bit, but that's not a big surprise given the time off, and the critical importance of a pitcher's legs. This spring he has already been in the 93-95 mph range and with his crisp movement, that velocity is plenty (and his normal). As a southpaw, he is still refining his command, even though he pretty consistently throws strikes, and as that comes you can expect his WHIP to improve and his strikeouts to rise. I am sometimes cautious when a pitcher is thrust into an unfamiliar position at the top of a team's rotation. It can add a lot of pressure. With Yu Darvish going under the knife
We have four down and now move out west with just two to go in my six-part series on some key arms to watch in each of baseball's divisions. As you know, these pitchers may be primed for a breakout, ready to take a significant step forward or they might be on the precipice, more likely to tumble into the abyss. In either case, you will want to be aware of these hurlers on draft day 2015. Let's get to it this week with:
Seven Arms to Watch in the AL West
Derek Holland (TEX) - I'm a Holland fan. Simple. No secret. I was enthusiastic heading into last season, but he experienced a January knee injury that cost him almost the entire year, and I had to wait until September to watch him plying his trade. His velocity was down a bit, but that's not a big surprise given the time off, and the critical importance of a pitcher's legs. This spring he has already been in the 93-95 mph range and with his crisp movement, that velocity is plenty (and his normal). As a southpaw, he is still refining his command, even though he pretty consistently throws strikes, and as that comes you can expect his WHIP to improve and his strikeouts to rise. I am sometimes cautious when a pitcher is thrust into an unfamiliar position at the top of a team's rotation. It can add a lot of pressure. With Yu Darvish going under the knife and out for 2015, that is where Holland finds himself, but in his case, I expect him to take it all in stride. That's another big plus -- his mound demeanor makes him all the more attractive. Maybe the year off will drop his price some? If it does, pursue with gusto!
Sonny Gray (OAK) - This one may be a bit of a wishful thinking selection. Talented young pitchers who have arrived with a splash are generally popular on draft day, and when they pitch in a friendly environment like Oakland, they can draw a lot of attention. Gray fits that profile. He was awesome late in 2013, and strong for most of 2014 (14 wins, a 1.19 WHIP, a 3.08 ERA, and 183 strikeouts in 219 innings). That was a lot of innings, especially when you add in playoff action, and he wasn't as strong through most of the second half so he might come at a fair price, albeit probably not at a discount. I think Gray will become more durable as he matures further, and may be capable of logging over 200 innings with 200 strikeouts. Put that together with solid peripherals and a knack for hanging around long enough to qualify for a win now and again, and you have the type of arm that can help anchor a fantasy staff. My guess is you will need to lock him up on draft day as his price could increase as the season progresses.
James Paxton (SEA) - Paxton breezed through the Mariners minor league system, albeit with some pretty scary command issues that arose occasionally and that may have made a lot of people consider scratching him off of their prospects list. He was strong at the end of 2013, and piqued fantasy owner interest prior to last year, but he missed four months with a lat strain and things quieted down again. He looked good over the last couple of months, with the exception of one disastrous outing that clouded his overall numbers somewhat. Paxton has the ability to miss a lot of bats with a potent mid-90s fastball that averages nearly 95 mph, and if he can stay around the plate opponents will have a tough time making solid contact. He also has a devastating (but sometimes erratic) curve and an acceptable changeup, but everything plays off of that fastball. When he is spotting both the fastball and curve, he's a handful, and I think he is poised to perhaps take the next step this year.
Garrett Richards (LAA) - Richards didn't impress me all that much when he first arrived. He had a good, but not great fastball, that could be too straight at times, and he had trouble consistently spotting both that pitch and his other offerings which led to higher pitch counts, and a tendency to throw too many "get me over" pitches. There was some potential to be sure, but there was also work to do. Fast forward to 2014. The fastball clicked up a couple of ticks (averaging more than 96 mph), it displayed some crisp movement, and he was hitting his target with it most of the time. He was also throwing his secondary stuff with authority. I'm liking this. He becomes the talk of the fantasy world with 13 wins, a 1.04 WHIP, a 2.61 ERA, and about a strikeout per inning, then a fluke knee injury ends his season. There is a lot of buzz remaining, but he's likely to miss a few starts early as he builds himself back up after rehabbing the knee this offseason. That is where I hope his price tag will benefit. The guy pitched like a true ace before the injury and there isn't any reason to doubt he'll be back at full strength. Pay the price.
J.A. Happ (SEA) - Here's a "changes in latitudes" play with some intriguing possibilities this season. He's been around since 2006, albeit he didn't work regularly at the major league level until 2009. He spent time with the Phillies, then the Astos, and most recently with Toronto (arriving there in mid 2012), all with occasional, but certainly not consistent success. That said, there are hints that he could be a late bloomer. His previous parks all favored power hitters, and he is a flyball pitcher. Conversely, Safeco Field in Seattle is a park where flyballs go to die. His velocity has been gradually, but relentlessly, creeping up. His fastball averaged a pedestrian 88 mph early on and was up to nearly 93 mph last season. His walk rate declined last year to a career low, and despite pitching in the homer-happy Rogers Centre, he was actually better in home starts than on the road. If these trends continue, he will be toiling in a hitter-friendly park, in a much lighter hitting division, and he could provide fantasy owners with mid-rotation production at an afterthought price. I like the scenario.
Collin McHugh (HOU) - This was a tough choice. The Astros are developing some young which should begin to pay off in the standings, but I am not totally sold on their current No. 1, Dallas Keuchel, and the best arm in their system, Mark Appel, isn't likely to see many meaningful innings this year, so I gave the nod to McHugh. That said, if you are looking for an Astros arm, look at him as a possibility but only if he can be had for a conservative price tag. He features a decent fastball, but he relies heavily on his breaking pitches so he can be vulnerable if he falls into any bad habits. His numbers in 2014 were eye-catching - a 1.02 WHIP and a 2.73 ERA with 157 strikeouts in 154 innings - but I am very doubtful he can repeat those peripherals. If you have to pay for 2014 stats rather than anticipated 2015 production, I would recommend looking another direction. If you are in a keeper and looking to the future, grab the high-ceiling Appel and be patient. He has all the tools, and they will come together. He is somewhat overlooked in many circles, but that could change quickly once it clicks for him.
Andrew Heaney (LAA) - As usual, this spot is reserved for an impact young arm who could contribute to your fantasy mound staff at some point this season. To be honest, I am only moderately sold on Heaney even though he is well thought of in general, and posted some pretty impressive numbers as he wound his way through Miami's minor league system, and would have given Sean Newcomb the nod if he were closer to reaching the big leagues. Keep an eye on him in keeper formats. Over the winter, Heaney was first traded to the Dodgers and then to the Angels where he is likely to claim a rotation spot this year. Heaney has a respectable but not overpowering fastball, and his off speed pitches are good enough to get the job done. He'll probably be even better as he adds strength and matures, but he throws enough strikes to be a serviceable starter now. Heaney shows confidence in all of his pitches, and typically gets ahead in the count which is a necessity given his arsenal -- he's not going to blow anyone away and needs to keep hitters off balance to succeed at this level.
The Endgame Odyssey
Here I'll cover some notes and observations on the closer scenarios across baseball. Over these weeks, the focus will be on the division featured in arms to watch.
The Mariners have Fernando Rodney coming back to close, which always makes me nervous, so owning Rodney makes we want to also own Danny Farquhar even though he's not the answer long term. Rodney is and almost always has been a wild card, so a handcuff is worth the investment. ... Perhaps the most settled end game scenario in the division revolves around the Angels' Huston Street. Street is not the typical closing buzzsaw, but he gets it done. If he's healthy, he closes. ... One of the most interesting closer battles this spring is in Texas between Neftali Feliz and a couple of intriguing options. Feliz likely starts the season with the gig, but I am very iffy on his ability to hang onto the job. Tanner Scheppers should be lurking all season, and if he's healthy again, I will be watching Kyuji Fujikawa very, very closely. ... He might not be ready on Opening Day, but Sean Doolittle proved himself last year and should continue to do well in Oakland. Tyler Clippard will be his primary set-up man and will probably get the call until Doolittle returns. ... In Houston, it's likely going to be musical closers again. Veteran Chad Qualls is the best bet early on, but Luke Gregerson could get a shot to step out of the set-up role he has excelled in, Pat Neshek is a possibility even though his motion is better suited to a righty specialist, and Josh Fields is still a big arm with shaky control. None instills a great deal of confidence.
Next week we'll close out the preseason series when we look at Seven Arms to Watch in the NL West.
