MLB Barometer: Hahn Solo

The Wright Brothers. Jordan and Pippen. Gretzky and Kurri. Ben and Jerry. Whether in sports, business or even marriage, successful partnerships require time, tenaciousness and most of all chemistry and trust. A partner has to be able to comfortably give up a bit of control for the greater good. Though Jordan and Gretzky could put their teams on their backs and single-handedly dominate outings, there were many times when a no-look pass based upon feel and trust produced similarly positive results. Marriages fall apart every day because of a lack of chemistry, and the same happens in businesses around the world because partners can't trust one another. Trust and chemistry is everything in a successful partnership - and it's hard to find.

So, what about partnerships in fantasy baseball? Many of you run your own teams, but is going solo the best road to success? The Morgan father and son duo won fantasy baseball's biggest season-long prize last year - the NFBC Main Event. Emmett Ruland and Pat Gagne won the Double Play Live at NFBC three years ago and Ken Magner and Jim Christie dominate in their national contests every year. These are just a few examples of wise fantasy minds who have good chemistry, a solid rapport, and a great trust for another. But what happens when you like to live life on the edge? When you're a fantasy baseball nut with five different partners on the season? Well, I am about to find out. I have eight teams this year, and five of them are with different partners. I call all of them my friends and would feel the utmost confidence leaving them to make decisions by themselves if ever I decided to take a vacation or had a can't-miss family function that kept me away from FAAB and lineup decisions on a Sunday night. I've worked with three of these gents before and have established good chemistry, and the other two I've talked baseball with for close to a decade. People I trust.

Even so, you may think I'm absolute nuts - call me a roto polygamist if you will (though technically that term would be appropriate if I had five partners in the same league, right?). The plan was never to make my Sunday nights as humanly difficult as possible. All five of those drafts went smoothly - plenty of prep beforehand, and most importantly, a respect for each other's strategies, target players and guys to avoid. We were happy with the team after each one draft. Most in-season decisions will be made jointly, and on a couple of teams, the final decision on FAAB is made by one of us, and lineup decisions by the other. In fact, everything was going smoothly until Sunday night. FAAB was set and Week 1 lineups were discussed via either text, email or phone and were set for the deadline a few hours beforehand. Then the San Diego Padres announced the trade for Craig Kimbrel. Guess who owns four shares of Joaquin Benoit? -> This guy <-. I'll be honest, I was definitely a little Panik Joe there. The season had yet to commence, and surely this wouldn't be the only weekend where close-to-the-deadline decisions would be required. Prices on the Jason Grilli bids were evaluated with each partner, and I ended up with just one winning Grilli bid of my four Benoit teams.

With all of the correspondence and coordination, this certainly won't be my easiest fantasy season. Though I keep each partnership independent of the other, I likely haven't accounted for possible late September conflicts of interest if I have teams competing for an overall. The guys trust me, and know I'll always try to do the honorable thing. Either way, I'm up for the challenge and I'll make the time without sacrificing the partnership that means most to me - in fact, the wife has slowly come around to my obsession, but sadly enough remains a Giants fan.

Starting Pitchers on the Rise
Risers and fallers will find their rightful places within this piece once the first week of the season has concluded. Over the final two weeks of draft season, we have covered helium players according to ADP and discussed undervalued hitters. With just one of 162 games in the books, this feels like a good time to take one last look at this season's crop of pitchers that are expected to take their games to the next level.

We can easily call 2014 the Year of the Pitcher. Power numbers have been on the decline over the last decade and the number of 30 HR, 90 RBI players have recently decreased from previous seasons. An average of 30 players drove in 90 or more runs in 2011 and 2012, while only 22 have done so over per season, in 2013 and 2014. There were 23 hitters with 30-plus homers in 2012 - the exact number of 30-plus home run hitters in 2013 and 2014 combined!

As for the arms, we saw an incredibly high number of starting pitchers throw over 150 innings with ERAs under 3.00 - 23 to be exact. Compare that to just 12 sub-3.00 ERA starters in 2013. Many of those pitchers were either undrafted in 2014 fantasy leagues, or available in the later rounds. Several of them did not throw 150 innings in their previous season, including: Corey Kluber, Jake Arrieta, Jacob deGrom, Colin McHugh, Alex Wood, Tyson Ross and Tanner Roark. Dallas Keuchel barely came in under the 3.00 mark (2.93) and nearly cut his ERA in half from the previous season (5.15 ERA in 153 IP). Even the Royals Danny Duffy pitched 149 innings of sub 3.00 ball, so close to being the 24th. With a plethora of arms producing top-notch ratios and great strikeout-rates, many of us came to the draft tables this year thinking we could pass on the safe group of arms (Kershaw, Sale, Hernandez, etc.) and draft hitters early and often, knowing that good arms will be available later. But, something has got to give. Even with how pitching has been trending over the last couple of years, do you really expect another 23 starters to throw 150 or more innings at under 3.00? I don't. And even if there 15 of them in 2015 under 3.00 (and under a 1.10 WHIP), what is the probability that many of these names will be the same, outside of the list of usual suspects? I know that ERA is just one category, but it relates to other categories as well, mostly WHIP and to an extent, wins. Most of the names on the list were 7.5-plus K/9 guys as well (Henderson Alvarez was one of the few exceptions).

Let's take a look at some of this season's breakout starters:

Taijuan Walker, SEA - Walker doesn't fit in with the theme of the rest of the guys on the list, but he must be mentioned. He was already a touted prospect heading into spring training, but an incredible March (25 IP - 24 K, 4 BB, 9 H) launched Walker's ADP to the point of no longer being a value pick. Walker has a 96 mph fastball, a cutter, curveball and a 90 mph changeup that will give lefties fits. The home park will be a nice advantage, and his division opponents do not appear as imposing as in years past, except for Mike Trout of course. We have to remember that Walker is still 22 years old and won't reach the 200 innings pitched mark this year. But, somewhere between 160 and 185 IP with a sub 3.00 ERA and an 8.5 K/9 season is in the cards. It should be enough to push him into the SP2 conversation for 2016 fantasy drafts.

Wily Peralta, MLW - Peralta enters his third full season as a member of the Brewers' rotation. Teammate Mike Fiers was all the hype until a sore shoulder and a slow start held him back in spring, while Kyle Lohse is just a guy (though not much of one yesterday) and Matt Garza's bad karma seems to transfer onto his performances on the mound. That leaves Peralta with an opportunity to be the ace of the staff. Peralta's numbers the last two seasons aren't sexy, but they have improved. He raised his strikeout-rate by a 0.5 and reduced his walk-rate by almost a full walk, per nine innings. His 2014 was a tale of three seasons - a strong start, a crushing middle, and a decent finish. He was off to an incredible start through the end of May (2.12 ERA in his first 64 IP) until a 6 ER blow-up against the Cubs on Memorial Day. He was destroyed by LHB in the summer months as his slider was continually crushed, and allowed 13 HR in 16 starts. Peralta is 26 years old, is still developing and had a solid13:4 strikeouts to walk ratio in the spring. If he can utilize his full arsenal, up the strikeout-rate and harness some of his early-season success from last season, he is one of the best off-the-radar candidates in the mid to later rounds who can dip below the 3.00 ERA mark.

Yusmeiro Petit, SF - It is well documented that Petit was much better as a reliever than he was a starter and is perhaps suited better in that role. But it looks like he may not have a choice soon. Matt Cain is going to the doctor's office this week, though Bochy says it will only be 'a couple of weeks', Tim Hudson probably has grandchildren playing high school ball and Tim Lincecum is well, Tim Lincecum. Petit should have a starting role with Giants eventually, if not soon - they just need to continue to stretch him out. Despite a fastball velocity near the bottom 10 percent of those who threw them 200 or more times last year, Petit's strikeout-rate was (10.2) was elite status in the Darvish/Sale/Kershaw range and his SwK rate (13%) was lights out. Petit may not last beyond 5 IP in his early starts, but should he solidify himself in the rotation, he can very likely provide solid value this season. I wouldn't expect a sub-3.00 ERA, but a repeat of his 1.02 WHIP based on his solid control, and a K/9 above 9.0 again isn't out of the question.

Brett Anderson, LAD - Too bad health isn't something that's 'due'. If that was the case, Anderson would be slated for the NL Cy Young. Anderson has just one full season of 30 starts in his big league career, way back in 2009; and has not pitched more than 80 innings in a season since 2011. So, what exactly is there to look forward to? His situation. Half of his games (hold your Anderson health jokes please) in a nice pitchers park, with a solid defense behind him and offensive run support. Anderson has always pitched well when healthy, and that's all there really is to it. 'Enjoy your three weeks' with Anderson is what your draftmates snickered when you took him. Hey, maybe this year, we'll have the last laugh.

Jesse Hahn, OAK - I'm pot-committed to Hahn this season with five shares over eight teams and even started with him for his Week 1 two-step in the CDM Points game, where usually only the crème de la crème make your roster. That's a salary cap game, so obviously his low price played a part in the decision, but regardless, Hahn moves from one good situation in Petco to another in O.Co Coliseum. Still developing his arsenal as a 25-year-old, Hahn had a nice eight-game stretch in June and July where he allowed less than two earned runs in six of those games. He allowed just 0.49 HR/9 over 73 innings with a 8.6 K/9, but walked too many guys (almost four per nine innings). Don't fret if the Rangers pay the A's back tonight for the whooping they got from Sonny Gray last night - one start does not make the man. Don't expect 180-plus IP, but he could hover around 3.00 for the season. Targeting starters from OAK, LAD, SD, ATL, SEA will once again be a great strategy for those who were able to pull it off.

Sub-3.00 ERA candidates (after the top 15)
Gerrit Cole, PIT
Mat Latos, MIA
Andrew Cashner, SD
Jason Hammel, CHC
Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA
Trevor Bauer, CLE
Gio Gonzalez, WAS
Kendall Graveman, OAK
Michael Pineda, NYY
Jarred Cosart, MIA
Drew Smyly, TB
Brandon Morrow, SD
Carlos Martinez, STL
Tyler Matzek, COL (road starts only)

Deep Stashes
Carlos Rodon, CWS
Rafael Montero, NYM
Steven Matz, NYM
Matt Wisler, ATL
David Phelps, MIA
Jacob Turner, CHI

Not Buying It (aka, pumpkins at midnight)
Drew Hutchison, TOR (on an island here)
Clay Buchholz, BOS
Dan Haren, MIA
Jered Weaver, LAA
A.J. Burnett, PIT
John Lackey, STL