MLB Barometer: Mistakes, I've Made a Few

What a long and grueling regular season. Crack open a cold one and get ready to exhale. If you're still reading this, chances are you've had a successful 2015 fantasy season and are looking to finish the year off on a strong note.

As it is with all of our teams every year, nothing is ever perfect. No matter how dominant our results, we feel like there were so many things we could have done better. Drafting James Shields over Jake Arrieta in the NFBC Main Event was probably the biggest mistake of my season. I can brood over it and stew in my regret for the next six months, but that wouldn't be constructive.

One way we can improve for next year is to note the lessons learned and attack our own weaknesses as roto players. Be sure to recap the season in full - from draft prep, through draft, and FAAB pickups - do it after the season, again around the holidays and once more when you begin next season's prep. My Arrieta-Shields mistake can easily be chalked up to two of my biggest weaknesses - assuming a pitcher's park makes the man (ie - PETCO), and in-draft decision-making. I assumed that Shields had a higher floor, and that pitching in the NL West (and in that park for half his starts) made him the smarter pick. He sure showed me.

The in-draft decision-making is a bona fide weakness of mine (making decisions on the spot, under a draft clock), no matter how prepared I am. That Shields over Arrieta decision was similar to the 15th round of my 2014 Main Event draft when I took Eric Young Jr. over a breakout Dee Gordon even though I had Gordon ranked higher. Live drafting isn't easy, but that's no excuse. It's a weakness I can address by having more confidence in my research and working on being more assertive with my though process under the gun. Whatever your weakness, make sure to identify them and address it head-on.

On to happier things. Just wanted to say that my feeling of pride and accomplishment was prominently felt this week as I received emails and comments from several of you - telling me that this column helped win your league and helped you stay competitive all season. Thank you for the notes as they mean a lot to me. Not trying to humble brag, but some of my good advice did coincide with a successful season for me as well. Though I'm still fighting out a couple of leagues over the final week, I'll hopefully be locking in first or second place in 6-of-7 NFBC leagues. I've had more good seasons than bad over the last 15 years, but can definitely say 2015 has been my best - more importantly, my most consistent.

To end on a positive note, I've omitted the 'fallers' and have mixed in a list of names to consider adding for the last week of the season, as well as a few who may be undervalued next year.

2016 RISERS
Justin Bour (1B, MIA) - At 6'4'', 250 lbs, Bour certainly looks the part of major league slugger. Recently, he has been playing the part. Bour slammed his fourth home run of the week on Sunday, and now has 22 on the year. He has maintained acceptable plate discipline (8 percent walk-rate, 22.5 percent strikeout-rate) and has crept his ISO over the .200 mark. Bour deserves his first base job and lineup slot, and should be the favorite for the position heading into 2016. Spending several years in the minors with the Cubs and Marlins, Bour finally came on the scene at age 27. Hitting 30 homers next season would be a longshot next year, but not out of the realm of possibility. Bour may very well find himself underrated in fantasy drafts. He makes for a good CI target if his ADP comes in after the top 200 overall picks.

Jorge Soler (OF, CHC) - Soler's 2015 season will go down as a lost one. Soler never had the opportunity to fulfill the breakout status expected of him this year, missing 56 games because of ankle and oblique injuries. He showed great promise in September last season, knocking out 5 HR with 20 RBI in 24 games, and was selected right around pick 100 overall in NFBC leagues this spring. Soler's numbers aren't horrible through 97 games - 10 HR, 47 RBI, 39 R, 3 SB, .266 - but they leave much to be desired and the strikeouts have been far too frequent (30 percent). Soler has been unable to get into rhythm with consistent playing time since returning from the DL on September 18, but has slammed three homers in his past 14 at-bats (through Saturday). With plate discipline concerns and possible questions about playing time heading into next season, Soler should be heavily undervalued come February/March and should exceed value at a depressed price.

J.T. Realmuto (C, MIA) - With possibly 10 other catchers hitting 15 home runs or more this season, a gem like Realmuto may fly under the radar next year. Realmuto converted from shortstop a couple years ago, but was steady as a Double-A catcher last year, gunning down 22-of-58 would-be base stealers. Realmuto also hit .299 and stole 18 bases last year. The sneaky speed at a position not known for it gives his owners a little extra bump (he has eight stolen bases this season). Realmuto has had his ups and downs this season, but has been hot in September, hitting .328. Realmuto may not hit ever hit .300 in a season, but he should be a plus contributor to batting average - a category that catchers not named Posey rarely provide a benefit in. If you choose to pass on the top names at the position next season, Realmuto is a perfect punt option who can contribute across the board.

Aaron Nola (SP, PHI) - First off, note that Nola made his final start of the year last week and is shut down for the remainder of the season. With the plethora of reliable pitching that will be available next year - both in the top and middle rounds - the ace of a team providing little run support will most definitely fly under the radar. Nola was not expected to be the Phillies' best pitcher so quickly after being drafted in the first round (seventh overall) in the 2014 amateur draft. Nola doesn't have filthy stuff (91.7 mph fastball), but has a nice variety in his arsenal (changeup, slider, two-seamer) and is more of a pitcher than hurler. Surprisingly (considering the Phillies' offensive woes), Nola finishes his rookie year with a 6-2 record in 13 starts and a solid 2.2 walks per nine innings (and a 1.20 WHIP). In five September outings, Nola was roughed up for 6 ER twice, but allowed just 0 or 1 ER in his other three starts. Nola has looked great as a 22-year old and will mature before our eyes. He has the capability of producing as an SP2 or SP3 as soon as next season - for an SP4/SP5 price tag.

HONORABLE MENTIONS
Corey Seager (SS, LAD) - Yes, Seager is long gone off free agent lists and deserves better than to be listed as an honorable mention. Everyone already knows his pedigree and have witnessed his immediate contributions. Through 20 games, Seager has 13 runs, 13 RBI and an incredible .347/.447/1.058 slash. He's going to come at a premium next season - think top 60 overall - an ADP that may increase furthermore if he sparkles on the national playoff stage like I think he's about to. With Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor and Xander Bogaerts in the fray, the shortstop position is relevant in fantasy again.

Steven Souza (OF, TB) - Souza's midseason absence due to injury has helped depress his price heading into next season. Sure, Souza's plate discipline is horrendous and he may be a headache you don't want to deal with next year (.222 BA, 34 percent strikeout-rate). But even a guy like Souza has some value - consider a late round outfield flier on a guy who can hit 25 homers / steal 20 bags and may actually hit .250 next year.

Henry Owens (SP, BOS) - Like Nola, the big left-hander will be another sophomore (like Nola) worthy of our consideration next season. A first-round pick in the 2011 draft, Owens made his major league debut on August 4 and has since made 10 starts. Six of them were quality starts, including Sunday's 7.2 inning shutout of the Orioles. Similar to Nola, Owens does not have the filthiest of stuff, but is a smart pitcher who is ready to contribute as an SP3 to your fantasy team. Owens should still be expected to make his final start of the season, this weekend against the Indians. Be sure to check and confirm before locking him in.

Rich Hill (SP, BOS) - Wow, where did this come from? In early August, the 35-year old was pitching for an Independent League team wearing the 25th uniform of his pro career. As of this past Friday, he was a surprise fantasy darling, completing his third consecutive 10-strikeout outing for the Red Sox. It's a boost that may have helped the lucky owner in your league (perhaps, you) creep up the standings via pitching categories, or solidify that nail in your league's coffin. The enigma gets one more start against the Yankees this week, and we'll keep an eye for his whereabouts in spring training next year.

WEEK 26 FREE AGENT PICKUPS
Greg Bird (1B, NYY), Aaron Altherr (OF, PHI), Michael Conforto (OF, NYM), Mikie Mahtook (OF, TB), Jarrett Parker (OF, SF), C.J. Cron (DH, LAA), Roenis Elias (SP, SEA), Matt Moore (SP, TB), Adam Conley (SP, MIA), Brandon Finnegan (SP, CIN)

For the final week, I've added Conforto, Parker, Bird, Cron, Moore and Conley everywhere I could. Hopefully some of these options are still available for you and can help you finish the season off strong.

Enjoy the holidays, the rest of the football season and be sure to get your well-deserved rest. The 2016 baseball season will be upon us before you know it. Best of luck this week and thank you for reading.

Vlad