This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
We're making the turn with part four of the six-part series on some key arms to watch in each of baseball's six divisions. As you know, these pitchers may be primed for a breakout, ready to take a significant step forward, or they might be on the precipice, more likely to tumble into the abyss. In either case, you will want to be aware of these hurlers on draft day 2016. Let's get to it this week with:
Seven Arms to Watch in the NL Central
Adam Wainwright (STL) - It's pretty rare when you can have a chance to pick up one of the true aces of the game at even a small discount, but there is that possibility in this year's draft. After missing most of 2015, Wainwright probably should come at a small discount -- he could pitch a few less innings than might be expected -- but at his age, 34, the Cardinals are unlikely to hold the leash too tightly. He missed all 2011 with Tommy John surgery, but it was a fluke Achilles' tear that knocked him out last year. He returned in September and appeared no worse for wear, so expect him to be back to his usual dominant self, right out of the gate. Wainwright is not overpowering (his fastball averages just 90-91 mph), but he is a surgeon. He won't pile up massive strikeout numbers, but they will be solid, and he'll give you a WHIP and ERA that will be
We're making the turn with part four of the six-part series on some key arms to watch in each of baseball's six divisions. As you know, these pitchers may be primed for a breakout, ready to take a significant step forward, or they might be on the precipice, more likely to tumble into the abyss. In either case, you will want to be aware of these hurlers on draft day 2016. Let's get to it this week with:
Seven Arms to Watch in the NL Central
Adam Wainwright (STL) - It's pretty rare when you can have a chance to pick up one of the true aces of the game at even a small discount, but there is that possibility in this year's draft. After missing most of 2015, Wainwright probably should come at a small discount -- he could pitch a few less innings than might be expected -- but at his age, 34, the Cardinals are unlikely to hold the leash too tightly. He missed all 2011 with Tommy John surgery, but it was a fluke Achilles' tear that knocked him out last year. He returned in September and appeared no worse for wear, so expect him to be back to his usual dominant self, right out of the gate. Wainwright is not overpowering (his fastball averages just 90-91 mph), but he is a surgeon. He won't pile up massive strikeout numbers, but they will be solid, and he'll give you a WHIP and ERA that will be a big boost to your overall stats. I'd expect something around 200 innings, and few pitchers will give you his percentage of quality innings. He's a great staff anchor.
Brandon Finnegan (CIN) - Let me throw out that $1 pitcher early on the list. I really like Finnegan's upside. Yes, he needs to continue refining his secondary stuff, and hone his command, but there are signs he is getting everything together. Last year he was the key piece coming from Kansas City in the Johnny Cueto deal, and the Reds have high expectations. He tossed just 105 innings last season (across three levels ranging from Double-A to the majors), so the team will probably monitor his innings to some extent, and he is still clearly on the learning curve, but he can generate strikeouts and if he gets in a groove, he can be a nice asset in your last rotation spot. Granted, he is a better pick in a keeper or dynasty format, and owners probably shouldn't ride too long if the wheels begin to look wobbly, but the Reds need to see some development in their young rotation starters, and Finnegan has the tools to make a statement.
Taylor Jungmann (MIL) - Jungmann made 21 starts for the Brewers last season and ended up with a respectable 1.28 WHIP and 3.77 ERA. And, he also contributed 107 strikeouts in 119 innings, so there was a positive contribution there as well. What those numbers don't tell is that the tank was pretty much on empty as he struggled through September. Keep in mind his WHIP was 1.15 and his ERA 2.42 after his first September outing. I'm banking on the hope that he uglied up his stat line enough to drop his price tag in many 2016 drafts. Jungmann was the 12th overall pick in the 2011 draft so there is a pedigree there, and he has shown progress in his trek to Milwaukee. He began his pro career as more of a contact pitcher, but with experience he has found his strikeout pitch, which allows him to get out of jams more consistently. The key is command. He has enough stuff to pitch effectively, but he has to trust it. His BB/9 rate dropped significantly to 3.54 last year, but it needs to come down a bit more. Because he tends to keep the ball in the park, if he can limit baserunners he should provide help in WHIP, ERA and strikeouts. Not an ace, but he can be useful.
Mike Leake (STL) - This is a "right place at the right time" selection. Leake has been a decent mid-rotation option for a few years now. He's not overpowering, but he throws quality strikes and keeps hitters off balance. He generates a lot of groundballs, and the only real fantasy downside has been a low strikeout rate, which pushes his WHIP and ERA up a bit. He's 28 and has been in the majors for several years, so he's not all that likely to add length to his fastball, yet I think he could be heading toward a bump in fantasy value. Leake has spent most of his career in Cincinnati where flyballs find their way into the seats fairly often. Being a finesse pitcher, he needs everything to be in synch all the time -- his mistakes can be highly volatile. Now he moves to a more-friendly home park in St. Louis, and joins a staff that has consistently done well with pitchers like himself. You'll note that the description above sounds more than a little like a younger version of Adam Wainwright. If a little Wainwright rubs off -- certainly a possibility -- Leake might step up his strikeout rate and you could see a better WHIP and ERA. I'd like to take a shot that he finds his new home very comfortable.
Kyle Hendricks (CHC) - Hendricks joins the growing list of soft-tossers with some value potential in this division. As I have discussed many times over the years, selecting a finesse pitcher can and usually is something of a leap of faith. They just don't have the margin of error enjoyed by their flame-throwing brethren. If you miss your spot at 98 mph there is still a good chance you'll catch a break. Miss at 88 mph, and more times than not that mistake will land on one of the moons of Saturn. Hendricks lives in that universe with his 88-89 mph average fastball. Hendricks does allow a few long ones, but he also pounds the bottom of the strike zone resulting in a lot of ground balls, and he is so fine with his command, he rings up a lot of called strikeouts. That will be difficult to maintain as hitters get accustomed to his strike zone, but he should be able to contribute enough to make him an asset as a back-of-the-rotation starter. And, that could be the biggest question. Technically, he is competing for the fifth starter spot, but I think he wins it, and I hope he gets on the young Cubs thrill ride.
Homer Bailey (CIN) - You know the value list wouldn't be complete without a returning arm coming back from an injury. Bailey made just two starts last season (and he clearly wasn't right) before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He is progressing in his rehab and the best guess for a return date would be mid-May, and the Reds will no doubt monitor his workload after that. If I compile a list of most frustrating pitchers, Bailey will make it. There have been a handful of pitchers over the years I watched with unbridled enthusiasm as they displayed so many of the characteristics I like to see. Sometimes it's a few innings, occasionally a handful of starts, and rarely even several months. But, in the end, the house of cards collapses. That defines the Bailey rollercoaster. At age 30 he is easily the graybeard of the Reds rotation. When he comes back, can he step up and embrace the staff leadership role? He has the skills, if he has the heart. He has a lot of risk, so don't overpay, but if your roster allows it, stash him.
Jameson Taillon (PIT) - This is from last year's pitcher's to watch: "I love this guy. He has a mid-upper-90s fastball (and it was getting even faster) that sinks and darts. He throws it to spots consistently and actually displays the mound presence to throw it with complete confidence. Add in a knee-buckling curveball, and a rapidly improving change-up and it equates to a pitcher who can be a force from his first day on a major league mound." After a setback last season, he now hasn't pitched in a game in two years. Many analysts have moved the extraordinarily talented Tyler Glasnow past him on the Pirates' organizational depth chart. He may deserve it. He's really good. However, I am not ready to fold on Taillon. While Glasnow will probably be a hot commodity on draft day even though he won't be in Pittsburgh's rotation on Opening Day, Taillon will be in Indianapolis for at least a couple months, and there is some chance he will be the forgotten man. If he's finally healthy, I think his ceiling matches that of Glasnow. He's another one who requires roster space to wait for his arrival, but I think he'll be worth it. Think about Gerrit Cole, Taillon and Glasnow. If you play in a dynasty/keeper format, jump in now. The price will only go up.
The Endgame Odyssey
Here we'll cover some notes and observations on the closer scenarios across baseball. For these six weeks, the focus will be on the division featured in arms to watch.
I would call Mark Melancon one of the more reliable closers in the National League, and he appears durable enough to warrant a fairly heavy investment. Tony Watson provides capable insurance, but Melancon is the guy as long as he's healthy. ... The Cardinals have Trevor Rosenthal, who can be very erratic as well as virtually unhittable. If Rosenthal ever falters badly, there are solid alternatives including import Seung-hwan Oh, who was successful (357 saves) in Korea and Japan, and prime setup man Kevin Siegrist. ... The Cubs' young and upcoming Hector Rondon has put it all together and removed any question about who will close on the North Side. Pedro Strop is probably the first option, but Rondon should have plenty of job security now. Things get a little more complicated beyond those scenarios. ... Milwaukee will probably choose between lefty Will Smith and Jeremy Jeffress. Smith is the better option, but he is left-handed and probably more versatile so he isn't guaranteed the gig. That said, I might throw a longshot into the mix. Tyler Thornburg is better than his numbers might suggest, so keep an eye on him as long as he stays in the bullpen. ... And, in Cincinnati, the Reds no longer have their beast closer, Aroldis Chapman, so the search committee is working overtime. The best bet is probably J.J. Hoover, and Tony Cingrani, who is much better suited to a bullpen role could push his way into the mix. My darkhorse? They have a young southpaw named Amir Garrett who really looks like a closer. However, he hasn't pitched above High-A, and they are still channeling him toward a starting role. Just keep the name in mind.
Next week we'll look at Seven Arms to Watch in the AL West.
