This article is part of our The Z Files series.
In the final part of what turned out to be an unofficial four-part series, we'll take a look at some of the surprising starting pitchers to date and discuss their rest-of-season expectations. The ranks solely cover starting pitchers, omitting relievers. The dollar amounts are based on a standard 5x5, 15-team mixed league and include games through Tuesday night, June 14.
Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs (4th, $25): If last March I were to predict that a Cubs pitcher would be 8-3 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, you'd say Jake Arrieta is having a great campaign defending his 2015 Cy Young award. Arrieta is indeed 10-1 with a 1.86 ERA but that's not surprising. When Lester was discussed a couple weeks back, I contended he wasn't an SP1 for me going forward under the guise of a rest-of-season redraft league. Well, I reserve the right to change my mind. If we were drafting today, I'd be giddy to have Lester anchor my fantasy staff. His consistency and reliability gain extra points in a season replete with unusual volatility among the elite starting pitchers. Will he pitch to a sub-2.00 ERA going forward? Probably not, but I still expect something below or right around 3.00, which is fine. I'll take the batter-an-inning whiff rate across a high number of innings along with the victories that emanate from a club on pace to win over 110 games. Since there are very few leagues that actually draft for real in-season, the
In the final part of what turned out to be an unofficial four-part series, we'll take a look at some of the surprising starting pitchers to date and discuss their rest-of-season expectations. The ranks solely cover starting pitchers, omitting relievers. The dollar amounts are based on a standard 5x5, 15-team mixed league and include games through Tuesday night, June 14.
Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs (4th, $25): If last March I were to predict that a Cubs pitcher would be 8-3 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, you'd say Jake Arrieta is having a great campaign defending his 2015 Cy Young award. Arrieta is indeed 10-1 with a 1.86 ERA but that's not surprising. When Lester was discussed a couple weeks back, I contended he wasn't an SP1 for me going forward under the guise of a rest-of-season redraft league. Well, I reserve the right to change my mind. If we were drafting today, I'd be giddy to have Lester anchor my fantasy staff. His consistency and reliability gain extra points in a season replete with unusual volatility among the elite starting pitchers. Will he pitch to a sub-2.00 ERA going forward? Probably not, but I still expect something below or right around 3.00, which is fine. I'll take the batter-an-inning whiff rate across a high number of innings along with the victories that emanate from a club on pace to win over 110 games. Since there are very few leagues that actually draft for real in-season, the applicable advice is don't hesitate to deal for Lester if you're looking to upgrade pitching. Especially in keeper leagues, the lefty could be available. If he is on a team likely to look more to the future than the present, someone like a cheap and controllable Drew Pomeranz, Vince Velasquez or Michael Fulmer are viable offers.
John Lackey, Chicago Cubs (6th, $22): Lester's former and current teammate Lackey checks in next. Even though his peripherals are almost identical to those of Lester, his more advanced age factors into expectations going forward so he would not make my list as an SP1. However, I'll make him my SP2. Perhaps this is more narratively driven than I usually like to work, but both Lackey and Lester have been through the ringer and should be able to handle the added attention the Cubs receive over the second half as they look to do what no Cubs team has done for 108 years. In addition, both grizzled veterans know if they aren't pitching with a lead chances are they soon will be which has to influence their approach, resulting in them just throwing strikes and not taxing their respective wings as much as some hurlers might. Like Lester, Lackey also makes an ideal target in keeper leagues to boost pitching as there's even less of a chance he's a keeper himself, so the cost of acquisition won't be as steep. Perhaps Archie Bradley, Trevor Bauer or Danny Duffy would get it done.
Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves (12th, $17): Making this year-to-date ranking even more impressive is the fact that Teheran only has a pair of wins. That said, his 2.93 ERA is greatly aided by Lady Luck as evidenced by a 4.06 FIP and 3.93 xFIP. Lester and Lackey also sport expected ERAs higher than their actual but the correction isn't in line to be as sharp. Teheran is enjoying a rather fortunate .221 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), though some of that is due to a few extra hard-hit balls leaving the yard thus not being in play. To wit, he sports a 13.5 percent home run per fly ball mark (HR/FB%). He has also benefited from a lofty 81 percent left-on-base mark (LOB%). Clouding how to evaluate Teheran going forward is that including the current campaign, he's maintained an ERA below what's expected throughout his career. There are two ways to look at that. Either he'll continue to do so until he doesn't, implying regression will eventually kick in, or there's a tangible reason he's doing it which isn't yet recognized by conventional analytical processes. For his career, Teheran's rate of line drives allowed along with hard hit percent are about league average. so that's not the culprit. Curiously though, this season he's allowing significantly fewer liners but more hard contact. If the hard contact continues and the line drives normalize, we're looking at a rather steep ERA correction. This contention would have been wrong two of the past three seasons, but I'd be surprised if Teheran continues to outpitch his skills the next three and a half months and thus expect an ERA going forward in the mid to high threes.
Steven Wright, Boston Red Sox (13th, $17): I learned a long time ago not to waste the limited healthy brain cells that made it through the drinking years on evaluating closers or knuckleball specialists. If you picked up Wright on a whim, congrats. Dealing with a knuckler is actually straightforward. You either have him active every start, regardless of opponent or venue, or you don't have him on your roster. It also helps not to watch the games they pitch, but that's up to you. The relevant point is Wright is now a fixture in the Red Sox rotation, getting the ball every five days.
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (17th, $16): Most expected Nola to be good, very good in fact. But this good? The key is an unexpected spike in strikeout rate, buoyed by a plus curve. Earlier in the season Nola's swinging strike rate (SwSt%) supported an elevated K/9 but that's a different story now as his 10.3 percent swinging strike rate portends an 8.5 K/9 as opposed to the 9.7 it sits at now. A mark in the mid-eights is the original expectation which again is good, very good in fact, but not great. I'm happy to have Nola on my fantasy staff, but as an SP3.
Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles (18th, $15): Tillman had a nice run from 2012-2014, but nothing like this, especially in terms of WHIP. Whenever a low WHIP is in play the initial reaction is to look at BABIP and sure enough, Tillman's mark is .267, very much on the fortunate side. His walk and home run rates mirror last season's marks. However, Tillman's whiffs are at a career high pace and the increase is supported by an elevated SwSt%. The righty's 3.90 FIP and 3.95 xFIP suggest his 2.87 ERA is a run too low but any ERA below 4.00 is playable in American League only and given the current state of pitching in the junior circuit, the goodly number of strikeouts is even more useful. I'm not interested in Tillman in mixed leagues, as he carries too much risk working in a hitter's park in the American League, but I have no issues running with Tillman in AL-only.
Colby Lewis, Texas Rangers (27th, $11): Every year there's a maddening arm that you stack against in DFS and he keeps foiling your efforts, until you finally opt to back off and then he gets lit up. This year's version is Lewis. His 1.08 WHIP is a result of a low .253 BABIP. As a fly ball pitcher, Lewis is expected to carry a low WHIP, but he's also likely to sport a high HR/9, which he is at 1.3. Lewis has benefited from minimal runners on base along with an unusually high LOB%. Finally, Lewis checks in with a very pedestrian 5.8 K/9. It's really not earth-shattering analysis to recommend divesting from any Lewis shares, even in AL-only formats. This summer is supposed to be unseasonably warm which should result in even more homers. Once the hit rate corrects, they'll be more long balls with men on base.
Tyler Chatwood, Colorado Rockies (28th, $11): Check this out. At home, Chatwood's ERA and WHIP are 5.10/1.49 as compared to a ridiculous 0.65/0.84 on the road. Obviously, you don't need me to tell you Chatwood's road numbers will regress. The question is if he'll be viable as a streaming candidate for road starts. Or, if you're in an NL-only league, will his road numbers continue to overpower his home stumbles and warrant being active in leagues that don't allow free movement from active to reserve? Let's cut right to the chase: no. Chatwood's fanned just 28 with 11 walks in 41.2 innings away from Coors Field. His success stems from no road homers. Even now it's tempting to stream Chatwood for road affairs but unless he's facing a weak team, preferably in a pitcher's park, I want nothing to do with Chatwood.
Josh Tomlin, Cleveland Indians (36th, $9): Something that should have been mentioned with both Tillman and Chatwood is an elevated win total aided their lofty rank. The same is true for Tomlin and his 8-1 mark. Though wins don't care if an ERA is lucky, a low ERA usually results in more wins. Tomlin's 3.27 ERA is relatively low but his 1.12 WHIP is excellent. You know the drill, let's look at the BABIP. A .283 is in line with what a fly ball pitcher should spin, so the question becomes whether Tomlin can continue to boast a minuscule walk rate. The Tribe right-hander's career mark is 1.44 with a 1.10 over the past three seasons so while his current 0.85 is low, even when it corrects Tomlin's WHIP should be useful. Then it's all about the home run as Tomlin's career HR/9 is 1.5. Even with a low strikeout rate, I'm good with Tomlin in AL-only but there are better options in mixed leagues.
Dan Straily, Cincinnati Reds (37th, $9): To put things in perspective, the 37th-best starter is a mid-ranked SP3. Can you imagine Straily as your third starter in a mixed league? This one won't take long either. Straily has pitched to a .232 BABIP. Once that corrects, his WHIP will skyrocket as his 3.9 BB/9 is well above average. Straily's career strikeout rate of 7.6 K/9 is just good enough to be dangerous, if only he could find a way to reduce the free passes. Unfortunately, he hasn't exhibited any reasons to believe the bulb will go off. Sell, sell, sell.
Thus ends our impromptu series. Unfortunately, the rather tame analysis of the end of the list means we're going out with a whimper. Trust me, I'd prefer to be the one finding a silver lining with some of these early season surprises but hopefully you prefer the truth over sensationalism. If there's any hurler that's surprised you and you're curious if there's any chance they continue to succeed, let's continue this in the comments.
