Mound Musings: A Who's Who of Rotation Aces for Draft Day 2017

This column typically spikes an annual debate session because it's almost impossible to generate a consensus on which pitchers will be the most valuable on draft day next spring. I like that. Controversy in fantasy baseball is good. Remember, these candidates are predicated on both 2016 results and some expectations for future performance. As I always say, anyone can draft based on the past, but the winner's usually find a way to look into the future, too. That said, here are my top draft-board arms for next year – assuming they stay healthy of course – three in the National League, and three in the American League. Let's take a look …

National League:

Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)

Kershaw missed two months of this season with back problems, but I can't take him out of the top spot until he shows some after effects that could carry over into 2017. He's currently 11-2 with a 0.73 WHIP and a 1.79 ERA. Those stats are actually slightly better than the numbers he has produced over the past three seasons. "Slightly better"? That's borderline ridiculous. Kershaw is just 28 years old. He's just entering what should be his prime years. I suppose you could be a bit concerned about his workload – he has averaged about 220 innings in the six seasons prior to this one – but until his productivity dips, it's probably not a good idea to discount his projected contribution. Kershaw almost single-handedly changed the draft strategy in fantasy baseball. He has been, and probably will continue to be, a pitcher with true first-round impact.

Noah Syndergaard (New York Mets)

"Thor" has put up a very encouraging second season in 2016, and I'm fairly convinced the best is yet to come. The Mets' ace currently holds a 1.11 WHIP with a 2.56 ERA and 188 strikeouts in just 162 innings. Perhaps most amazing, he easily maintains an average fastball velocity in excess of 98 mph deep into games. That is game changing. That equates to a top tier closer hurling six, seven or even eight innings per outing. Syndergaard's fastball includes plenty of movement, and he has the breaking and offspeed pitches to make that fastball all the more impressive. His only "weakness" is slightly inconsistent command that can drive up his pitch counts, but that's improving. Some say his velocity will be the norm in a few years, but it's rather unique today.

Jose Fernandez (Miami Marlins)

This was hard! I debated for a couple of days whether this spot should go to Fernandez or to Stephen Strasburg. I'm still inclined to call it a tie – if you get either you can say you own a true ace with confidence. I gave the edge to Fernandez because he looks like he could move beyond his Tommy John surgery and step right back into the elite tier of starting pitchers. Strasburg can too, but he's still a bit fragile, prone to stints on the disabled list, and that naturally reduces his fantasy impact. Look for a sub-1.00 WHIP and a sub-3.00 ERA with huge strikeout totals next season. They have slightly limited his innings, but that probably won't happen again in 2017.

American League:

Yu Darvish (Texas Rangers)

I admit to having something of a man-crush on Darvish, but at least I've fallen for someone with the upside to justify the love affair. There are three things that propel him to the top of the American League's elite pitcher list. First and foremost, with it unlikely he will have an innings limit next season, I think it's possible he could ring up 300 strikeouts. I didn't think I'd ever say that again. Second, his smorgasbord of pitches – maybe eight to 10 give or take. Darvish may not have many games where he doesn't have several pitches working. Finally, while there are quite a few good pitchers in the AL, I just don't feel that there are more than a handful that can push him for the top spot. In 2013, the last season Darvish pitched the full year, he logged a 2.83 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and 277 strikeouts in 209.2 innings. Don't be surprised if he surpasses those numbers.

Chris Sale (Chicago White Sox)

I said this last year and I can't think of a better way to say it now: In my opinion, no other pitcher can take over a game quite like Sale. When he's on – game over. Of course, the problem with Sale is a mild case of inconsistency. He works with a rather violent motion that doesn't help the repeatability of his delivery. So, when he's on, the game may be over, but when he's not, Sale can run into trouble. Over a full season, you may barely notice (this year he has a 1.01 WHIP and a 3.07 ERA that is somewhat tarnished by his pitching in a homer haven. There are two concerns. While he's about to toss over 200 innings again this year, there are plenty of analysts who remain convinced he's an injury risk, and although he's striking out one batter per inning, that's a far cry from the 11.82/9 ratio of 2016. His true strikeout level is probably somewhere in between.

Justin Verlander (Detroit Tigers)

Unlike the National League where there were several pitchers not listed who I felt had a legitimate claim to a spot on this list, no one in the American League stands out to me beyond the top two. There are a lot of good starting pitchers, but they're all just a notch below what I think you need to make it here. And so, with a little fanfare and probably a good share of skepticism, let me introduce the new and quietly improving Mr. Verlander. The defensively challenged Tigers don't help much, but the 33-year-old hurler is close to completing the conversion from pure power pitcher to a finesse pitcher with some hop. His fastball is down 3-4 mph from his prime, but he's more savvy now, and he keeps hitters off balance with his secondary pitches, so nobody is really noticing the drop in velocity. Some pitchers never adjust, but Verlander's transformation is textbook.

There are certainly a lot of other guys who could have made the list, like Stephen Strasburg, Jake Arrieta, Johnny Cueto, Madison Bumgarner, Max Scherzer, Felix Hernandez, Cole Hamels, Masahiro Tanaka, Rick Porcello, and even a couple were considered who would be major surprises like Aaron Sanchez, Jameson Taillon, Kevin Gausman and Danny Salazar. But, all have given reasons, recently or in the past, to be considered, but those are the three in each league I'm circling on draft day.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

I didn't include Marcus Stroman in the top pitcher considerations, primarily because he has been so frustratingly inconsistent this year. Like a few others, you can see the upside on almost any given night, but too often you also see the unraveling that can take place when he gets out of synch. I think he'll be an appealing sleeper in 2017.

I made a big mistake acquiring Zack Greinke in my home league at the trade deadline. I've never been convinced he's as good as he sometimes looks, and he wasn't showing a lot since returning from a minor injury. In six starts for me, he's contributed a simply horrendous 1.63 WHIP and an equally ugly 7.76 ERA. The bench is that way.

Seattle's James Paxton keeps teasing us with hints that he could be a useful fantasy option, but injuries and inconsistency make it difficult to trust him. In his last start, he struck out eight (and made them look silly doing it), but he also gave up six runs (four earned) and lasted just four innings. I keep waiting for things to come together.

It's never easy finding a pitcher who can handle the challenges of pitching in Coors Field, but the Rockies may have found one. Former first-round pick, Tyler Anderson, has compiled a nifty 3.35 ERA despite making of 11 of his 16 starts at home. He's a groundball pitcher and throws strikes which always helps.

This has been a brutal season for injuries to high-quality starting pitchers, I have never been a big Dallas Keuchel fan, but a diagnosis of "shoulder inflammation" takes him further down the list of pitching considerations. Even minor shoulder problems often linger in the background and recur throughout a career. You have to love a guy to balance the risk.

Brandon Finnegan has really made some notable strides this year with the Reds, but his season is just about over. The team is expected to shut him down after a couple more starts (he's currently logged 159.2 innings). His ERA, at 4.17, is still high, but he just needs to continue refining his command. The stuff is there.

The Endgame Odyssey:

Andrew Bailey clearly looks like the Angel to own if you are trolling for saves. The former topshelf closer will try to put all the injuries behind him over the last month of the season. In San Francisco, Santiago Casilla has now blown seven saves, but contending teams don't like to make changes this late in the year unless things get really ugly. The Braves continue to use Jim Johnson when he's available, but remember Mauricio Cabrera gets an occasional opportunity when Johnson needs a day off. He doesn't profile as a true closer, but the Padres' sinkerballer Brandon Maurer is holding his own since stepping into the role. If he avoids any meltdowns he should keep the gig for the remainder of this season. The Marlins continue to use A.J. Ramos in a set-up role while allowing Fernando Rodney to close. Rodney often makes things interesting, but he has been closing for many years. They might leave things as they are for now. Things haven't gone well for the Pirates' Tony Watson of late, including a blown save with three home runs in two-thirds of an inning. If healthy, Neftali Feliz would probably be next in line if his struggles continue, but he's not an option right now. In Oakland, Ryan Madson hasn't been automatic for most of the season, but he has been on his game lately, and has probably assured himself of a job for the remainder of the year. Pitching for the third day in a row, Dellin Betances got lit up earlier this week.