The Z Files: First Draft, Part Three

I promise, this will be the only time I do this, but since we've come this far we may as well finish the job and share the last half of a real National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) team co-owned with Derek Van Riper. Everyone in the industry drafts a bunch of teams so don't worry, you'll get all the, "My man crush will do better than everyone else expects despite the lack of statistical evidence" analysis you can handle. As a trade-off, some unique game theory will be intertwined.

By means of reminder, this is an actual NFBC league, called Premature Edraftulation. It's a standard 15-team satellite league with seven man reserves and FAAB. Derek and I had the first pick and went fishing. The early rounds are covered here with everything through Round 15 discussed here.

Team LorDVR at the halfway point:

C: Yasmani Grandal (10)
1B:
3B: Justin Turner (11)
1B/3B: Miguel Sano (8)
2B: Logan Forsythe (14)
SS: Francisco Lindor (2)
2B/SS:
OF: Mike Trout (1), George Springer (3), Yoenis Cespedes (6), Kevin Kiermaier (15)
UT:
SP: Carlos Carrasco (4), Stephen Strasburg (5), Julio Teheran (7)
RP: Edwin Diaz (9), Raisel Iglesias (12), Tyler Thornburg (13)

Before revealing the second half of the club, DVR and I were predisposed to fading first base and going with some speculative prospects, figuring at worst there will be a left-handed hitting platoon option available if no one pans out.

This may seem like a bad idea, since first base is a position from which most expect big power, but I have a different viewpoint. Don't look at the roster in terms of positions but rather a spiral of choices with lessening expectations as you traverse downward. My pet name is the Slinky Snake. We all played with a Slinky as a kid. Some of us did so as an adult too when the old metal version morphed into the plastic rainbow model, but I digress. Picture yourself holding a Slinky at the very top with just your fingertips and let it fall. The early rungs are far apart, but as you move towards the floor, they're progressively closer together.

Now think of each rung as a draft round. As you slither down, the expectations between consecutive picks decline. This is analogous to the NFL draft and why the league has a preset trade matrix to establish equity for trades. That is, dealing a first and a fourth for a second and a third is not an even deal. At least on paper, the first and fourth are potentially better.

So instead of expecting a certain level of production from my first baseman, I set expectations for draft spots. This way, waiting on a first baseman means he needs to fulfill what's desired from the spot he's selected. If this is done at every spot, the overall expectation is satisfied, regardless of how much each position is contributing. For what it's worth, this approach transcends all fantasy sports.

The other prevailing thought heading into the second half of the draft was to grab a speed guy, even if he's a proverbial one-trick pony. To this point, steals are sketchy. With Trout, Lindor, Springer and Kiermaier, we could have over 100. We also could have fewer than 60. Even if the stolen base specialist sits on reserve, we wanted the ability to embellish the category if the situation dictated.

With that as a backdrop, here's the next 14 picks, as it appears we won't get to Mr. Irrelevant by posting time.

16. Drew Smyly: Right away I'm the guy rationalizing his mancrush. Smyly will do better than everyone expects despite a plummet in strikeout rate and a bump in an already unpalatable home run rate. On top of that, Tampa may opt to move the lefty. As alluded to, he's already allowing too many dingers pitching half his games in a power-suppressing venue. Depending on where he lands, this could get even worse. Still, I'm a believer in lots of whiffs with a stingy walk rate, and Smyly has the stuff to make that happen.

17. Matt Shoemaker: There's some concern that Shoemaker's mid-season peripheral surge waned down the stretch, but he works in a pitcher's park thus can be streamed if necessary, which is fine for the fifth starting pitcher on a team lined up to use three relievers a lot.

18. Cameron Rupp: Rupp's hard hit data is very good. Jorge Alfaro looms, but at least early on, Rupp should continue to get the lion's share of squatting time in Philly. Things may change, but at least this past season he was one of the few receivers hitting in the middle of the order.

19. A.J. Reed: Here's the initial first base dart. You know the deal; Reed's pedigree says he can rake, but he had trouble translating those tools. Reed won't turn 24 until next May, there's plenty of time for things to click. The Houston Astros have other pieces at the position but none with the potential of Reed, so if he gets things together in the spring, we're fine.

20. Ben Revere: Now the speculative speed dice roll as DVR and I both hope Revere ends up with a squad that will let him run. The idea being if a team acquires Revere, there's only one reason for them to do so. Keep in mind the NFBC allows Friday transactions, so a guy like Revere can essentially be a platoon fantasy player. We can activate him for series against teams that don't defend the running game very well.

21. Aaron Altherr: Altherr impressed in the spring but hurt his wrist, delaying his 2016 campaign until late July. The Phillies fly chaser never got in a groove. There's some competition for playing time but this late, it's worth the chance Altherr gets back on track with another solid spring. The kicker is there will be plenty of undrafted foils at the position to pick up if Altherr does not impress.

22. Jedd Gyorko: Gyorko is eligible all over the infield, which is both a blessing and curse. As of now, there's no definite spot for Gyorko to play on a regular basis. Maybe Jhonny Peralta is traded but as of now, we drafted a reserve into the middle infield spot, though a reserve coming off a 30-dinger season.

23. Jeremy Hellickson: In pro wrestling, they call it a face turn when a bad guy (the heel) turns in a crowd favorite (the face). Hellickson went from a guy picked on in DFS to one deployed in tournaments. Others will delve into the numbers deeper, but for me his strikeout rate is good enough to be dangerous while his walks are low. Hellickson is not a pick-and-stick starter, but he's certainly earned useful status.

24. Tyler Skaggs: One skill away, that's a phrase I'll often cite with pitching. This is especially true if the skill is control and the pitcher displayed the skill earlier in his minor league tenure. Skaggs misses bats and keeps the ball in the yard. If he can shave off some free passes, we're talking mid to front of rotation potential.

25. Chris Devenski: Devenski is very likely to climb up rankings come next spring, for good reason. To wit, in 108.1 innings, he sported an 8.6 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and 0.3 HR/9. Of course, there will be some give-back but even so, them's some good looking numbers. The kicker is Minute Maid has played as a pitcher's park the past couple of years.

26. Andrew Triggs: Some more number scouting, as Triggs twirled an 8.8 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and 0.8 HR/9. The Athletics are starved for healthy pitching and may have a gem with the Orioles castoff.

27. Dan Vogelbach: DVR suggested Vogelbach and it makes sense. Obviously, nothing is definite, but chances are the Mariners move on from Adam Lind. Dae-Ho Lee is in the mix, but he's likely a right-handed platoon bat. If Vogelbach earns the strong side of that, he doesn't need to produce much to fill the spot of our 13th or 14th hitter.

28. Josh Hader: Another DVR special, Hader has been on my radar too since he excelled in the 2015 Arizona Fall League. As Derek noted to me, don't get hung up on Hader's stats at Triple-A Colorado Springs. As he so succinctly put it, "Nothing near the strike zone is a good idea in that park."

29. Peter O'Brien: Derek and I discussed O'Brien on several podcasts over the summer, both of us curious as to why he wasn't given more of a chance in the desert. Part of the thinking here is there's new brass in Arizona, so moving (or using) O'Brien is likely. There's a certain team in Boston devoid of a designated hitter whose General Manager now runs things for the Diamondbacks, soon to be joined by the Red Sox bench coach. It's too bad neither Mike Hazen nor the probable Terry Luvollo move requires compensation, as O'Brien would be perfect. This late, it's worth the chance he lands with someone needing a stick.

30. TBA, but likely a speculative middle infielder.

Here's the complete roster:

C: Yasmani Grandal, Cameron Rupp
1B: A.J. Reed (Dan Vogelbach)
3B: Justin Turner
1B/3B: Miguel Sano
2B: Logan Forsythe
SS: Francisco Lindor
2B/SS: Jedd Gyorko
OF: Mike Trout, George Springer, Yoenis Cespedes, Kevin Kiermaier, Ben Revere (Peter O'Brien)
UT: Aaron Altherr
SP: Carlos Carrasco, Stephen Strasburg, Julio Teheran, Drew Smyly, Matt Shoemaker, Jeremy Hellickson (Tyler Skaggs, Chris Devenski, Andrew Triggs, Josh Hader)
RP: Edwin Diaz, Raisel Iglesias, Tyler Thornburg

At least to my eyes, the areas that need monitoring are 1B, MI, OF5 and UT. Truth be told, this was by design once it was apparent pitching would be the strong suit. Of course, this relies on Strasburg's health, but part of the reason for the focus on arms was as an injury hedge.

There's a little position flexibility as Gyorko can go to 3B, pushing Sano to OF. This helps in case we unearth a sleeper middle infielder and Gyorko plays regularly.

Thus concludes the construction of Team LorDVR. As always, comments, questions and criticisms welcomes below.