FanDuel MLB: Thursday Value Plays

FanDuel MLB: Thursday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

Thursday's main slate consists of only four games as the early-season day games (seven) dominate the day. It's extremely important to note the early-game slate kicks off at 6:35 p.m. EDT instead of the usual "just past" 7:00 p.m. EDT start time.

The four-game slate has two distinct paths to take tonight: (1) Pay up for one of the three good pitchers and find value in hitting, or (2) take one of the five cheap pitchers and take expensive hitters including those hitting in the Bronx tonight.

The obvious stack tonight will be the Yankees, who saw Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez all go yard yesterday and get an even better matchup against Andrew Cashner. Note that Cashner gave up three home runs in his first start and throws a straight fastball.

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PITCHER

Masahiro Tanaka, NYY vs. BAL ($9,300): With only four games on tonight's slate, there is a big enough discrepancy between the pitching prices that paying up is almost a must. Tanaka comes in behind Robbie Ray in price by $300 but has the better matchup at home. The Orioles have been dreadful to start the season, running Chris Davis out to hit leadoff and leading the league with a 28.1 percent strikeout rate and have the four-lowest wOBA with a .254 mark. Tanaka's ERA at home was over three runs less than on the road, and he sported an elite .285 wOBA at Yankee Stadium.

Also consider: Robbie Ray, ARI at STL ($9,600)

GPP Fade:Jon Lester, CHC at MIL ($8,900): Lester struggled on the road last season with a 4.41 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. The Brewers have several players (Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain and Domingo Santana) who all had wOBAs of .350 or more last season. Throw in that Lester can't hold anyone to a base and there should be some bonus points coming tonight for the Brewers in the way of steals.

Cheap GPP Consideration:Adam Wainwright, STL vs. ARI ($6,000): There are slim pickings when looking at the five cheap pitchers tonight, considering all come with a red flag. Wainwright is coming off the disabled list and had a 2017 season that saw him put up a 5.11 ERA over 23 starts. However, mixed into those 23 starts were eight performances of hitting 37 or more fantasy points, showing there's still some upside with the 36-year-old. Just realize he may be limited to much less than a normal workload in his first start off the DL.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

Ryan Braun, MIL vs CHC ($3,300): Braun has gotten off to a great start this season with two home runs in his first four games, both of which were game-winners. He has a career .426 wOBA against left-handed pitching for his career and has a lifetime 1.033 OPS vs. Jon Lester. Lester's worst splits last season were on the road against right-handed hitters: He gave up a .359 wOBA in those settings.

SECOND BASE

Chris Owings, ARI at STL ($2,600): Owings has gotten off to a nice start, reaching base in every game he's started while putting up 15.2, 22.1 and 28.7 fantasy points in three of those contests. Owings has always shown a reverse split throughout his career and had a .321 wOBA last season against right-handed pitching. Only 26, there's reason to believe his best season is yet to come, given his 34-point increase in ISO last season.

THIRD BASE

Eugenio Suarez, CIN at PIT ($3,200): Suarez raked against southpaws last season, finishing with a .383 wOBA against them, a mark that was stable on the road at .370. Steven Brault (who will be discussed in more detail in a minute) has limited experience in Pittsburgh and is a good pitcher to target tonight. Suarez showed excellent growth last season raising his walk rate by over 5 percent while slightly lowering his strikeout rate and increasing his ISO by 37 points.

SHORTSTOP

Paul DeJong, STL vs. ARI ($3,700): DeJong is best left for GPPs tonight and left alone in cash games. This isn't a great matchup against Robbie Ray, and coupled with his price tag, his ownership will be extremely low even for a four-game slate. Still, DeJong has been fantastic against left-handed pitching in his short career with a .414 wOBA (90 plate appearances), though he is prone to the strikeout (32.2 percent).

OUTFIELD

Albert Almora, CHI at MIL ($2,100): Almora has gotten off to a slow start this season but is an excellent defender. He also had a .386 wOBA against lefties last season, and that mark went up to .423 when Almora was on the road. All the Cubs' right-handed bats are in play tonight -- especially Kris Bryant ($4,200) -- against lefty Brent Suter.

Adam Duvall, CIN at PIT ($2,800): Duvall finds himself in a good spot tonight given his matchup against Steven Brault, who comes into the game with only 37.2 innings with the Pirates and is a left-handed pitcher. Duvall had a .382 wOBA vs. that handedness last season, while Brault is giving up a .353 to right-handed hitters at the big-league level.

UTILITY

Josh Bell, PIT vs CIN, ($3,400): Bell has come out of the gate strong, reaching base multiple times in each of his first four games. At 6-foot-2, 230 pounds, Bell has turned into a power hitter and been playing in a good RBI spot at cleanup for the Pirates. Bell owned a .343 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season, while Homer Bailey was terrible in 2018, giving up a .349 wOBA on the road.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Kevin Payne plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: Fanduel: kevinccp, Draft Kings: kevinccp, Yahoo: kevinccp.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kevin Payne
Kevin has worked for RotoWire over a decade and has covered basketball, baseball and football. A glutton for punishment, he roots for his hometown Bills, Sabres and the New York Yankees. You can follow him on Twitter @KCPayne26.
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