This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
This week brings the biggest Tuesday slate we've had yet -- 12 games -- and the first time in 2018 that I've been annoyed by the Indians' decision to start their weeknight home games at 6:10 ET, dropping their matchups from the Main slate (they are available on the all-day slate).
There are a pair of inexperienced starters taking the ball Tuesday serving us viable stack targets:
- Eric Skoglund vs. SEA
- Caleb Smith vs. NYM
Along with some of the usual suspects:
- Martin Perez vs. LAA
- Homer Bailey at PHI
Additionally, the Rockies continue their series with the Padres and get a second look at rookie Joey Lucchesi, who quieted the Colorado lineup at Petco on Wednesday afternoon.
Thanks to a matchup of two aces in Boston (Luis Severino vs. Chris Sale), the ownership of Red Sox and Yankees bats will plummet for a day, and a smattering of other top-end arms: Stephen Strasburg, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Martinez, Aaron Nola will also narrow down the number of viable bats Tuesday.
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Pitcher
Jacob deGrom, NYM at MIA ($9,600) -- Weather isn't a factor with a matchup in Miami, against a Marlins team that has been one of the most generous to opposing pitchers to begin 2018. The latest organizational fire sale has left the Marlins with an offense that currently ranks 28th out of 30 teams in wRC+ (72) -- as a reminder of how early in the season it is, the Dodgers and Indians are the two teams behind them -- and has a 23.2% K%. The win probability for deGrom is very high as well, as the Mets are -200 favorites Tuesday.
Also consider: Stephen Strasburg, WAS vs. ATL ($9,800), Carlos Martinez, STL vs. MIL ($8,700), Chris Sale, BOS vs. NYY ($11,000)
GPP Fade: Dallas Keuchel, HOU at MIN ($8,300) -- I'm not really expecting a high ownership rate on Keuchel, but this is more just a note about wanting to see him stay at this price when the Astros get a home matchup in the near future. Target Field is more favorite to hitters than pitchers, and the Twins' lineup is solid. In addition to boosting runs and homers to righties, Target Field reduces strikeouts. All in all, it's a surprisingly difficult setup for Keuchel on Tuesday night.
Cheap GPP Consideration: Hyun-Jin Ryu, OAK at LAD ($6,500) — Full disclosure: I'm not planning on playing Ryu. I think there are enough quality arms at the top with reasonable prices, so I'm not digging deep to free up a lot of extra money for upgraded bats Tuesday. The combo of being at home, having decent base skills, and a matchup against an Oakland team that has plenty of swing-and-miss in the lineup (despite increasing upside and quality) makes Ryu standout compared to the other pitchers on the lower-third of the price list Tuesday.
Catcher/First Base
Ryan Zimmerman, WAS vs. ATL ($2,700) -- Zimmerman has posted five consecutive scoreless efforts on FanDuel, while he's topped six points in a game once in seven starts. It's a righty-righty matchup Tuesday against Mike Foltynewicz, who is ideally picked on with a left-handed hitter (1.43 HR/9, .355 wOBA since 2016), but Zimmerman's placement in a strong Washington lineup is still good enough to take the suboptimal matchup in order to save some cash for other targets. If the Nats elect to give Zimmerman another day off to clear his head, his likely replacement, Matt Adams ($2,900), is a viable swap for lineups given Folty's struggles against lefties.
Pivot to Jose Martinez against Brent Suter ($3,000) if Martinez is cleared to return to the lineup following an Achilles contusion that knocked him out in the late stages of Monday's game against the Brewers.
Second Base
Asdrubal Cabrera, NYM at MIA ($3,300) -- Cabrera has averaged 10.7 fantasy points per game on FanDuel to open the season, and more importantly, the switch-hitting infielder has been more productive against lefties than righties in each of the last two seasons, including a .946 OPS (.392/.434/.512) in 2017. The Mets are facing a lefty for the second time in the first 10 games Tuesday, and it's worth noting that they used Cabrera atop the order in their previous matchup against one on April 7. Even against righties, Cabrera hasn't hit lower than fifth in the order thus far.
Third Base
Christian Villanueva, COL vs. SD ($3,100) -- The Padres started Villanueva in six consecutive games before giving him a day off against a tough righty (Jon Gray) in Monday's matchup with the Rockies. Against a lefty Tyler Anderson, Villanueva should be back in the lineup Tuesday. Since his three-homer game last Tuesday, Villanueva has hit clean-up in four of the five games he's started. The risk here is that he's had a surge in strikeouts as a big-league hitter during his limited time with the Padres in September and to begin this season (0:20 BB:K, 59 plate appearances), but his sub-20 percent K% at Double-A and Triple-A over the previous two seasons (2015 and 2017, since he lost all of 2016 to a broken leg) is encouraging.
Shortstop
Paul DeJong, STL vs. MIL ($3,100) -- Soft-tossing lefty Brent Suter is starting for the Brewers, which could be enough to push DeJong into the fold despite a low placement in the Cards' batting order thus far. DeJong has hit seventh for the Cards in each of the team's first 10 games, while manager Mike Matheny has used the exact same top-seven in every games this season. If Jose Martinez is unavailable, somebody has to move up, and while that may simply nudge Yadier Molina to fifth and DeJong to sixth, at least it's a small step forward. The low lineup placement, and DeJong's poor plate discipline (career 28.8% K%, 4.6% BB%) likely limit him to GPP lineups Tuesday.
Outfield
Hunter Renfroe, SD at COL ($2,600) -- Renfroe has struggled against righties as a big-league hitter (31.9% K%, 73 wRC+), but he has mashed against lefties (17.9% K%, 177 wRC+) to the tune of a .306/.386/.677 line. With the chance to hit in the heart of the order with Villanueva at Coors on Tuesday night, he will be among the most heavily-owned players. Using one (or both) provides extremely affordable bats in a favorable matchup taking place in the best hitter's park in the game, but keep in mind that Renfroe is a regular cheap outfield target when he's home against more established lefties an Anderson when the price falls this far.
Justin Upton, LAA at TEX ($3,900) -- Three homers in the span of four games last week may have nudged the price up a bit on Upton, but he draws lefty Martin Perez and a big park boost Tuesday night. The move from Anaheim to Texas for this particular matchup leaves Upton is a in spot that increases the overall run production by 17 percent above a neutral park (Anaheim has played nine percent below neutral over the last three seasons), and one that reduces strikeouts significantly (three-year park factor 93, compared to 109 in Anaheim). Perez has an 11.2% K% against righties over the last two seasons, and while he's not extremely homer prone, he's not far (1.07 HR/9) from the mean of the splits against righties of the starters going Tuesday night (1.14 HR/9).
Tommy Pham, STL vs. MIL ($3,200) -- The same logic that makes Paul DeJong viable in tournaments applies to Pham, but he's been used as the Cards' No. 2 hitter every time out to begin 2018. Thus far, he's been hitting the ball on the ground even more than last season, while pulling the ball at an increased rate from a year ago. Those trends are worth monitoring in the weeks ahead, but the deflated price is worth the risk given his lineup placement and favorable matchup Tuesday night.
