This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defense to Avoid:
Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic: This is more of a play against the Orlando offense, as many people will want to pivot to some of their players against a bad Sixers team. There are three reasons I think the Magic are a good fade: the first is that they are playing the second half of a back-to-back set. In that loss, they choked away a 13-point lead with three minutes left and now they have to get on a plane to fly to Philly for a game 24 hours later. That screams "letdown" and lack of motivation, as this Magic team will surely be disappointed after that collapse. Philadelphia will also be well-rested and motivated for this game, as they've been off for the last five days due to some embarrassing court issues. The biggest reason, though, is the offense itself, as they rank 29th in scoring, 29th in field-goal percentage, 29th in three-point percentage and 30th in offensive efficiency. The Sixers play good defense at home too, ranking 10th in defensive efficiency on their own floor.
Offense to Use:
Toronto Raptors vs. Los Angeles Lakers: The Raptors have been clicking on offense recently and it's evident through their four-game winning streak. In that span, they are averaging over 115 points a game and piling up fantasy points. What's equally as good about this play is their matchup, as they face a 27th-ranked Lakers defense. In addition, Los Angeles is 28th in defensive efficiency, fourth
Team Analysis
Defense to Avoid:
Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic: This is more of a play against the Orlando offense, as many people will want to pivot to some of their players against a bad Sixers team. There are three reasons I think the Magic are a good fade: the first is that they are playing the second half of a back-to-back set. In that loss, they choked away a 13-point lead with three minutes left and now they have to get on a plane to fly to Philly for a game 24 hours later. That screams "letdown" and lack of motivation, as this Magic team will surely be disappointed after that collapse. Philadelphia will also be well-rested and motivated for this game, as they've been off for the last five days due to some embarrassing court issues. The biggest reason, though, is the offense itself, as they rank 29th in scoring, 29th in field-goal percentage, 29th in three-point percentage and 30th in offensive efficiency. The Sixers play good defense at home too, ranking 10th in defensive efficiency on their own floor.
Offense to Use:
Toronto Raptors vs. Los Angeles Lakers: The Raptors have been clicking on offense recently and it's evident through their four-game winning streak. In that span, they are averaging over 115 points a game and piling up fantasy points. What's equally as good about this play is their matchup, as they face a 27th-ranked Lakers defense. In addition, Los Angeles is 28th in defensive efficiency, fourth in pace and are coming into this game with a lot of injuries. A stack of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry would be the best approach, as the duo are averaging 49.4 points, 10.5 rebounds and 11.5 assists per game this season. Those two handle the ball on almost every possession and could combine for close to 100 fantasy points if things go as anticipated.
Teams on Back-to-Back Set:
First Game:Bucks, Celtics, Hawks, Lakers, Nuggets, Raptors, Sixers and Timberwolves
Second Game:Cavaliers, Clippers, Magic Rockets
DraftKings.com Player Recommendations
James Harden, HOU at DEN ($11,900): This price is pretty crazy, but Harden is the best player on the slate and has a fantastic matchup. Harden has scored at least 56 fantasy points in six of his last eight games and there's no other player Friday with that sort of reliability, aside from DeMarcus Cousins. What makes Harden the better play over Cousins is the matchup. Cousins has a favorable matchup against Boston, but Harden should be able to own the Nuggets, as they've allowed the most fantasy points in the league to guards this season. There's no better bet for 50-plus fantasy points in Harden, so get that guarantee in your lineup.
Dennis Schroder, ATL vs. DET ($6,000): Schroeder is coming off a career-high 31 points and is in the midst of his best stretch of the season. In fact, he has 129 fantasy points across his last three games and this price isn't indicative of that sort of form. He's really starting to find his rhythm as the Hawks' starting point guard and his matchup is great as well, as he faces a Pistons team who has allowed the seventh most fantasy points to point guards across their last 10 games.
Ish Smith, DET at ATL ($5,000): Smith is a regular in my articles and hasn't let me down all year. He's currently filling in for the injured Reggie Jackson and this will be one of the last times we can use him with Jackson due back shortly. He's played well recently, coming off a 19-point, eight-rebound and eight-assist line against the Celtics in his most recent game. This matchup is spectacular as well, with the Hawks allowing the second most fantasy points to point guards this season. At just $5,000, Smith is the value play of the day and my best bet to exceed 5X value.
Julius Randle, LAL at TOR ($6,800): Randle has been playing at a premium level despite this non-premium price. In his two games since returning from injury, Randle has scored 73.5 fantasy points in limited minutes. What's made him so valuable is his ability to run the offense, as the Lakers are leaning on him as the primary distributor without D'Angelo Russell in the lineup. I like this matchup too, as the power forward position is one of the few weaknesses on the Raptors.
Danilo Gallinari, DEN vs. HOU ($5,800): Gallinari is flying under the radar because he just returned from injury but could blow up in this matchup. He gets to face a bad Rockets defense that is playing a day after an exhausting double-overtime win against the Warriors. While Wilson Chandler leads the team in usage, Gallinari is not far behind and will probably start over Chandler, meaning he'll get more minutes at a cheaper price. Given that fact, he's the go-to Denver player in what is a promising matchup.
Robert Covington, PHI vs. ORL ($4,600): Covington is a much better player than what he's shown and it became evident when he dropped 35 fantasy points in his most recent game. This also builds off my "defense to avoid" recommendation, as Covington is the best defender on Philly and could accrue elite defensive statistics. In addition, Orlando's worst position right now is at small forward, as their rotation is in flux due to Aaron Gordon's struggles.
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN at NYK ($8,900): Towns is coming off his best game of the season Wednesday and it just so happens that he gets to face the same team again Friday. The Knicks allowed Towns to drop 47 points and 18 rebounds en route to 80 fantasy points. It wasn't much of a surprise, however, as New York has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to centers this season. His role is equally as encouraging, as he has taken 19 shots or more in four straight games and now ranks second in usage among Western Conference centers, just behind Cousins.
Al Horford, BOS vs. SAC ($6,500): This is easily my favorite play of the day and it's a wonder why this price is so affordable. Across his last five games, Horford is averaging over 40 fantasy points per game and around 36 for the entire season. Those numbers don't match his price, as he's continuously delivered 6X value and will face a putrid Kings defense. Furthermore, the Celtics will need to ride Horford as he lines up against Cousins, which means Horford could be looking at close to 40 minutes and potentially 50 fantasy points.
Robin Lopez, CHI vs. CLE ($5,600): Lopez has taken over Joakim Noah's role well in Chicago and hasn't gotten enough credit for it. Not only has he scored at least 29 fantasy points in seven of his last 10 games, he's averaging over 25 fantasy points per contest this season. This is also one of the few matchups where Lopez has an advantage, as he faces off against Tristan Thompson. Also, the Cavaliers have allowed the third most fantasy points to centers across their last five games.
