Daily Games Review: Trust Tracker

I use the Trust Tracker to publicly track the usefulness – or lack thereof – of the recommendations I made in my most recent Daily Games Cheat Sheet article.

For a more detailed introduction, check out my first and second posts here and here.

Players are measured according to their p/K (points per thousand dollars spent). Depending on their p/K and the approximate number of points needed to win a 50-50 league that night, players are rated as either “helpful”, “competitive”, or “harmful”.

On a normal night with a full slate of games (roughly 10 or more), you will need to score between 240 – 250 points to win a 50-50 league. On those nights, a p/K of 4.8 or higher is helpful, a p/K between 4.0-4.8 will keep a roster competitive, and a p/K below 3.5 is harmful.

Those are our baseline benchmarks, but it is important to adjust my analysis so that it reflects the night in question. While there is always variation from contest to contest, the scores required to win each one on any given night are usually very closely grouped, regardless of entry cost. This entry will review two articles’ worth of recommendations. By coincidence, the scores required to win most contests on both nights – Wednesday, January 7, and Thursday, January 8 – were within the same range, between 225-230 (93% of the 240-250 range). As such, I will proportionally decrease expectations for these analyses:

  • Scores above 4.5 p/K are helpful
  • Scores between 3.7 and 4.5 p/K keep a roster competitive
  • Scores below 3.3 p/K are harmful

In Wednesday’s article, I recommended 11 players for use:

  • Seven players (64% of those recommended) recorded p/K values above 4.5.
  • Six players (55%) recorded p/K values above 5.0.
  • Three players (27%) recorded a p/K value between 3.7-4.5.
  • One player (9%) recorded a p/K value below 3.3.
  • The best recommendation was Mo Williams, who recorded a p/K of 9.9. He registered the highest p/K in the league Wednesday night.
  • The worst recommendation was Jared Sullinger. With Kelly Olynyk, Brandon Bass, and Tyler Zeller around, the Celtics have no need to rely on Sullinger when he is having an off night. Thus was the case Wednesday, when he went only 1-7 from the field, and in turn played only 24 minutes (he is averaging 30 minutes per game over the last 15 days).  His rebound and assist production was actually in line for an above-average night, had he seen his normal workload. He ended up with two points, six rebounds, three assists, and 15.5 fantasy points for 2.4 p/K.

Overall Wednesday, 91 percent of my recommendations were of competitive value or better, 64 percent were actively helpful, and 9 percent were damaging.

The team that I entered Wednesday on DraftKings was created using primarily players highlighted in my Wednesday article. Due to the salaries of the players mentioned, I needed to use one more high-priced options than I recommended – the other seven players were all from the article. I tallied 234.75 points for an overall p/K of 4.7.

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In Thursday’s article, I recommended 11 players for use (the article named 12 players, but it was announced after the article was published that one, Cody Zeller, would not play):

  • Nine players (82% of those recommended) recorded p/K values above 4.5.
  • Three players (25%) recorded p/K values above 6.9, ranking in the top 10% of performers.
  • Zero players (0%) recorded p/K values between 3.7-4.5.
  • Two players (18%) recorded p/K values below 3.3.
  • The best recommendation was Hassan Whiteside, who recorded a p/K of 7.2. He registered the 6th highest p/K in the league Thursday night, and was ranked first among centers.
  • The worst recommendation was Gary Neal. Neal is a consistently used piece off the Hornets bench, typically seeing workloads ranging from the high-teens to the mid-twenties. Coming off back-to-back poor shooting performances, Neal’s price was decreased, and I thought that made him a great bargain. Instead, he posted a stat line even worse than the two previous games, scoring only a single point and totaling just 2.75 fantasy points for a p/K of 0.8.

 

Overall, 82 percent of my recommendations were actively helpful, and 18 percent were damaging.

The team that I entered Thursday on DraftKings was created using only players mentioned in my Thursday article. I tallied 228.5 points for an overall p/K of 4.6.

Both of these games, Wednesday and Thursday, were among my best of the season. Wednesday set my personal best for percent of players of competitive value or better (91%). Thursday set my personal best for percent of players who ranked as helpful (82%).

Season total

Through 19 articles this season, I have recommended 227 players for use.

  • 128 have been helpful (56%)
  • 167 have been competitive or better (74%)
  • 46 have been harmful (20%)

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