DraftKings MMA: Previewing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night

The “Natural Born Killer” returns from a 16-month absence to headline UFC Fight Night on Saturday in Goiania, Brazil. It should be an action-packed card as the octagon once again heads to South America.

If you’re hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring

  • Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
  • Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
  • Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
  • Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
  • Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

  • 1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
  • 2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
  • 3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
  • 4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
  • 5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
  • Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS
  • Scoring Notes:
    • Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered “Power Strikes” by official scorers.
    • Advances include:
      • To Half Guard
      • To Side Control
      • To Mount
      • To Back Control

 

Now, on to the fights…

Main Event – Welterweight

Carlos Condit (29-8-0) v. Thiago Alves (26-9-0)

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DraftKings Salaries: Condit ($11,100), Alves ($8,300)

Vegas Odds: Condit (-250), Alves (+210)

Condit is one of the most popular fighters in the UFC. He suffered a serious knee injury in a bout against Tyron Woodley in March 2014 and he hasn’t fought since. He is just 1-3 in his last four fights dating back to November 2012, but all three losses have come against top competition (Georges St. Pierre, Johny Hendricks, Woodley). When he’s on his game, Condit combines a great boxing base with elite cardio and the ability to finish fights via submission. Even though he’s only 31-years-old, Alves has been in the UFC since October 2005 and this will somehow be his 20th fight with the company. He has been in there with some awfully big names (GSP, Matt Hughes, Josh Koscheck, Martin Kampmann) so it seems doubtful that Alves will be in awe of being in the cage with Condit. Alves has been more good than bad (13-6 record) during his time in the UFC, but he’s notoriously inconsistent, even on a round-by-round basis. As long as Condit didn’t rush his rehab (and that seems doubtful with Greg Jackson in his corner), I think he has too many weapons for Alves.

THE PICK: Condit

 

Co-Main Event – Featherweight

Nik Lentz (27-6-2, 1NC) v. Charles Oliveira (19-4-0, 1NC)

DraftKings Salaries: Lentz ($8,000), Oliveira ($11,400)

Vegas Odds: Lentz (+230), Oliveira (-270)

This is a rematch of an infamous June 2011 contest between the two fighters. In that bout, Oliveira landed an illegal knee to the head of Lentz and then proceeded to choke him out. The referee failed to notice that it was an illegal shot that set up the finish, and as a result, allowed the decision to stand. Just days later, the Pennsylvania Athletic Commission (the fight took place in Pittsburgh) reversed the decision and changed it to the lone no contest that both fighters now have on their records. Saturday’s rematch will showcase a contrast in styles. Lentz is a wrestler. In his 14 UFC bouts, he has averaged over four takedowns per contest. Oliveira is a submission specialist. He’s one of the best in all of MMA. It just seems like a terrible matchup for Lentz. If he’s able to get Oliveira to the mat, which is his strength, he’s immediately at risk of being submitted. Lentz’s only chance would seem to be to land a ton of takedowns, avoid a submission and win a decision. It seems unlikely to me.

THE PICK: Oliveira

 

Welterweight

KJ Noons (12-6-0, 1NC) v. Alex Oliveira (10-2-1, 1NC)

DraftKings Salaries: Noons ($9,400), Oliveira ($10,000)

Vegas Odds: Noons (+110), Oliveira (-130)

Noons’ career has been predictable. He’s won virtually all the fights that he was expected to win and he ‘s lost virtually all the fights that he was expected to lose. The biggest victory of his career was against Nick Diaz back in 2007, but that was due to a doctor’s stoppage in the first round. Noons is a great striker but he brings little else to the table. This will only be Oliveira’s second UFC bout. He lost his first via submission to Gilbert Burns in the third round. He is a big, strong guy but it remains to be seen how he will fare against a pure striker in Noons. I think Oliveira has the ability to land the one big shot and finish Noons, but I would give Noons the edge in a striking battle if the fight goes an extended period of time.

THE PICK: Noons

 

Light Heavyweight

Francimar Barroso (16-4-0) v. Ryan Jimmo (19-4-0)

DraftKings Salaries: Barroso ($8,100), Jimmo ($11,300)

Vegas Odds: Barroso (+230), Jimmo (-170)

Looking at Jimmo, one would always think he is capable of more. He has the body of a Greek god, but he’s only 3-3 in his six UFC bouts. Jimmo has shown major knockout power in the past, but he’s also shown an extremely vulnerable chin and has been on the other end of some major shots as well. Barroso is another guy with major power, but not much else. He has four submission wins, but they were mostly the result of landing power shots and then finishing guys off. Jimmo is 33-years-old and Barroso is 35-years-old, so it’s not like both guys have a ton of room for growth. Barroso has the advantage of fighting in his native Brazil, while Jimmo has the advantage of having faced better competition. The way both of these guys load up on their shots, it’s hard to believe that this one will go the distance.

THE PICK: Jimmo

 

Lightweight

Francisco Trinaldo (16-4-0) v. Norman Parke (21-3-1)

DraftKings Salaries: Trinaldo ($8,400), Parke ($11,000)

Vegas Odds: Trinaldo (+190), Parke (-230)

Parke is frequently talked about as a fighter with a lot of potential, but he’s now 28-years-old, has been in the UFC since December 2012 and has yet to earn a signature win. His most recent bout in January against Gleison Tibau was his biggest test to date. He lost a split decision. Trinaldo has been in the UFC since June 2012, and he’s also yet to beat anyone of note in his nine bouts with the company. Parke is known for being extremely active and throwing a lot of shots. He also likes to go for the takedown, although his takedown percentage (25.58%) is terrible. Trinaldo should have the edge in the submission game, but I’m skeptical that he’ll be able to get the fight to the ground to use his skills. Parke needs to win this fight in order for people to continue to take him seriously moving forward.

THE PICK: Parke

 

Other Bouts:

 

Welterweight

Wendell Oliveira (24-8-0) v. Darren Till (12-0-0)

DraftKings Salaries: Oliveira ($9,900), Till ($9,500)

Vegas Odds: Oliveira (-120), Till (+100)

THE PICK: Till

 

Featherweight

Rony Jason (15-5-0) v. Damon Jackson (9-1-0)

(DraftKings does not currently have this fight listed on their site)

Vegas Odds: Jason (-210), Jackson (+160)

THE PICK: Jason

 

Flyweight

Jussier Formiga (17-3-0) v. Wilson Reis (19-5-0)

DraftKings Salaries: Formiga ($10,100), Reis ($9,300)

Vegas Odds: Formiga (-155), Reis (+115)

THE PICK: Formiga

 

Welterweight

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (14-4-4) v. Nicolas Dalby (13-0-0)

DraftKings Salaries: Zaleski dos Santos ($9,600), Dalby ($9,800)

Vegas Odds: Zaleski dos Santos (+235), Dalby (-315)

THE PICK: Dalby

 

Lightweight

Lucas Martins (15-2-0) v. Mirsad Bektic (9-0-0)

DraftKings Salaries: Martins ($9,600), Bektic ($9,800)

Vegas Odds: Martins (+250), Bektic (-350)

THE PICK: Bektic

 

Women’s Strawweight

Juliana Lima (7-2-0) v. Ericka Almeida (7-0-0)

DraftKings Salaries: Lima ($9,700), Almeida ($9,700)

Vegas Odds: Lima (-210), Almeida (+160)

THE PICK: Almeida

 

Welterweight

Luiz Dutra (11-3-1) v. Tom Breese (7-0-0)

DraftKings Salaries: Dutra ($9,900), Breese ($9,500)

Vegas Odds: Dutra (+110), Breese (-150)

THE PICK: Breese