NFBC Draft and Hold: 50-Round DC Express

I think it’s important to be transparent, so here are all 50 of my picks from Sunday’s NFBC Draft Champions Express (15 teams):

 

1.3 Ronald Acuna

2.28 Andrew Benintendi

3.33 Blake Snell

4.58 German Marquez

5.63 Blake Treinen

6.88 Miguel Andujar

7.93 Michael Conforto

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8.118 Robinson Cano

9.123 Kyle Hendricks

10.148 Mike Moustakas

11.153 Eduardo Rodriguez

12.178 Yusei Kikuchi

13.183 Garrett Hampson

14.208 Justin Smoak

15.213 Jesus Luzardo

16.238 Max Kepler

17.243 Danny Jansen

18.268 Greg Allen

19.273 Hunter Strickland

20.298 Enrique Hernandez

21.303 Anibal Sanchez

22.328 Marcus Stroman

23.333 Omar Narvaez

24.358 Evan Longoria

25.363 Ryan Brasier

26.388 Jeff Samardzija

27.393 Chad Pinder

28.418 Willie Calhoun

29.423 Steve Pearce

30.448 Yandy Diaz

31.453 Domingo German

32.478 Jason Heyward

33.483 Billy McKinney

34.508 Logan Allen

35.513 AJ Puk

36.538 David Fletcher

37.543 Lucas Giolito

38.568 Daniel Descalso

39.573 Travis d’Arnaud

40.598 Addison Russell

41.603 Isan Diaz

42.628 Ryan Madson

43.633 Austin Dean

44.658 Jeff Mathis

45.663 Jorge Lopez

46.688 Roberto Perez

47.693 Griffin Canning

48.718 Alcides Escobar

49.723 Lucas Duda

50.748 Emilio Pagan

 

The KDS draw was favorable. For me, the earlier the pick the better this year and most years. I previously had J.D. Martinez as my No. 3 player (No. 4 before the Lindor injury), but the report from Saturday suggesting Braves manager Brian Snitker may bat Acuna leadoff after all pushed me toward James Anderson’s side with Acuna. Benintendi is a really good player and when paired with Acuna provides an excellent five-category foundation.

 

I was a bit surprised Snell was the one left over after a run of four straight pitchers after I took Benintendi: Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Luis Severino, Carlos Carrasco.

 

I put my money where my mouth is here with Marquez. It was between him and Jose Berrios. I had been informed on Twitter that Marquez had gone as high as 51 in a recent NFBC draft, and I had Marquez in the 50s in my initial ranks anyway, so I decided to just get my guy at 58. Assuming full health, I’m locking in 210-plus Ks, and there’s plenty of upside from there. I buy into Marquez’s second-half surge and think the stuff is ace-level. He’s my ideal SP2 in 15-teamers this year despite the park, unless of course you can get like, Walker Buehler, in a league that doesn’t push up pitching so aggressively. I’d like to be able to take Marquez later. Oh well.

 

When I took Marquez, I thought there was no chance I’d have to make a call on Treinen with my next pick. After all, Edwin Diaz had gone eight picks before I drafted Marquez. However, Treinen was still there, and I decided that he was the more scarce commodity than any of the remaining hitters or starting pitchers.

 

Andujar fell pretty far past ADP, and I popped him over Yasiel Puig, which I now regret. That said, Andujar is a very good fantasy 3B and his placement on a couple Bill James leaderboards recently opened my eyes a little. Andujar ranked seventh in the AL in Best BPS on OutZ (min. 502 PA) — batting average plus slugging on pitches outside the strike zone —  and fourth in OPS vs Curveballs (min. 50 PA). I always knew he could ambush a fastball.

 

And while I didn’t get Puig, I did get another guy I like to break out in the outfield in Conforto. Don’t expect to be able to get him here in March. Cano, Hendricks and Moustakas I felt were rock-solid value picks. I did consider Archer over Hendricks, but I like Hendricks as a ratios anchor. I pushed up Eduardo Rodriguez a fair bit. I want all the E-Rod shares this year. BSOHL is just the cherry on top — the skills are there and I’m jumping in with both feet with the faith that the knee issues are behind him, having been surgically corrected.

 

I didn’t expect to draft Kikuchi anywhere, especially after a slow-mo video of his delivery surfaced on Twitter. That shouldn’t push up his draft cost, but I figured it would since it looked like he hid the ball really well and because, well, slow motion makes everything look better.

 

I was getting light on speed and grabbed Hampson, which I was thrilled with. I like Smoak and can live with the pick, but that meant I missed Joe Musgrove, and that’s eating at me. Musgrove is going to be a must-get in subsequent drafts.  I know the stuff and command are there. He also turned up surprisingly high in some very basic Google sheet functions I ran recently:

 

Further, the fact that the Pirates are already effectively locking Musgrove into the No. 3 rotation spot right now gives me confidence in his health.

 

Luzardo and Kepler kind of made this draft for me. I like both a round early.

 

Jansen was a top rate contributor at the position during his brief time in the majors last year, and Allen should probably be going a lot higher than he is just because he contributes in a scarce category. I don’t like most speed-only guys at cost, but I can take that dive with Allen outside the top 250.

 

Strickland I think is a decent bargain-bin closer, and Sanchez and Stroman seem like decent fliers to take this year. In the reserves, I was content to load up mostly with a lot of warm bodies including Heyward, Pearce, McKinney, Fletcher, Descalso, etc.

 

Check out the full draft results below. Let me know what you think on Twitter @claywlink.