Beat the Cap: Leaving Money on the Table

Beat the Cap: Leaving Money on the Table

This article is part of our Beat the Cap series.

It is alright to slide under the salary cap in daily contests. You don't have to max out your roster every night. Sometimes the prices fit, and sometimes they don't. A team of targeted players at 96 percent of the cap is likely to beat your team flush to the cap, which is filled with targeted players and a few skaters you swap in late because their prices fit.

My refusal to leave money on the table has been costly. So many times solid lineups are locked into place and there is cap space left. The auction adage of not being able to take the money with you kicks in, and before long, three changes are made and the lineup is at the cap.

The No. 1 rule in fantasy auctions is don't leave money on the table, but daily games aren't auctions.

It is extremely rare that the changes improve the team, and only a slightly higher percentage of the time do the changes not factor in. More often than not, adjustments solely to spend more are bad choices. Only recently have I been able to leave money on the board, and I still feel uncomfortable when I do.

Last week, the topic of leaks was touched on, and in previous articles reflecting on past performance to improve future outcomes has been discussed. In daily games, this has been the biggest weakness to my approach. Typically, I'll end up with a high-priced forward I wasn't targeting instead of someone I identified as a plus-start.

The biggest issue here is that another entire column focused on why these daily prices are wrong. Briefly recapping, FanDuel slowly adjusts their prices, leaving producing players underpriced. DraftKings, meanwhile, overreacts to recent trends and solid scorers drop to the mid- to low-price range because they go three games without a point.

Still, when your lineup isn't at the cap, it is difficult to kick the notion it isn't inferior.

Obviously, you cannot roster whoever you want and fit under the cap, but you can build your roster around any number of players depending on the approach you take. These daily contests shouldn't be viewed as cap contests, but rather pick 'em contests.

Determine your approach, or better yet, try a few approaches before finalizing your rosters. Put together a balanced roster with mid-priced players and compare it with a lineup with a mix of high-priced players and low-priced players.

Take these very similar lineups from before the All-Star break as examples:


The lineup on the left has mid-priced skaters throughout, except at left wing, where there is a significant price disparity. The one on the right is similar, but has two high-priced centers and two low-priced wingers.

Finally, here is a last lineup without any cheap forwards:

It is always wise to keep the average remaining salary per player in mind as you assemble your lineups. The beginning point for FanDuel is $6,100 and DraftKings is $5,555. With desirable goaltenders being significantly more expensive than the average, you're already budgeting.
However, both sites usually have viable defensemen at discounts, which can help stomach the initial cap hit your goalie eats up. Then you can either spend around the mean, or you can reach above and below. Backtracking, this is where these contests should be viewed as pick 'ems more than salary cap formats.

Sticking with the examples above, should you roster a combo of Evgeni Malkin and Beau Bennett or Derek Stepan and Marian Hossa?

Looking ahead to Wednesday's contests on DraftKings here are a few examples of beginning points keeping the $5,555 mean in mind:


A balanced lineup, which never strays far from the mean, expect in goal.


This lineup has a cheap defenseman and three below-mean wingers to compensate for Sidney Crosby's cap hit.


Similarly, this lineup has linemates Joe Pavelski -- the most expensive skater -- and Melker Karlsson along with three players below the average $5,555 salary.

Crosby and Pavelski were included to reinforce that you can roster whoever you want, if you're willing to go cheap elsewhere. If those are the players you're confident in and are your lineup targets, then filling out these rosters shouldn't have significant salary implications. Identify the players you want who will fit under the cap and hit submit.

When filling out the first lineup, you can add two mid-range skaters like Sean Monahan and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, or an expensive Rick Nash and one of Karlsson, Anton Lander, Mark Arcobello or Markus Granlund. Build your lineup around the players your confident in, and it's alright if you don't spend to the cap.

Continuing with Draft Kings and Wednesday's examples, just because you can fit Mark Giordano ($8,000 salary, 16.0 percent of cap) under the cap, it doesn't mean he is a better play than Kris Letang ($7,700 salary, 15.4 percent of cap). They're priced in the same tier, and the focus should be on choosing the player you think will have the best night, regardless of price.

Leave the $300 on the table if you think Letang is the better play. Similarly, leave the $600 there if you prefer Johnny Gaudreau ($5,300 salary, 10.6 percent of cap) over Brad Marchand ($5,800 salary, 11.6 percent of cap).

Being cap conscious is one thing because you're spending is limited. However, letting the cap dictate your lineup is an entirely different animal, and should be avoided in the process of lineup assembly, especially in the vacuum of one-day contests. It is alright to leave money on the table.

If you have additional questions or would like to see anything specifically covered in Beat the Cap, contact me in the comments below or via Twitter @naparker77.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Neil Parker plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: naparker77, DraftKings: naparker77.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Neil Parker
A loyal Cubs, Cowboys and Maple Leafs fan for decades, Neil has contributed to RotoWire since 2014. He previously worked for USA Today Fantasy Sports.
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