This article is part of our Beat the Cap series.
Beat the Cap: Leaks, Game Slates and A Bag of Pucks
The All-Star break provided an opportunity to reflect on the unofficial first half of the season. A few bankroll management realities surfaced, which hopefully can aid in fine-tuning your daily approach. Plus, there are a few lineup gems at a discount to consider for your lineups in this week's Bag of Pucks section.
Leaks
It is unlikely anyone plays daily fantasy sports to lose. While the goals range from entertainment to supplementing another income or livelihood, producing a profit is an important part of all three.
Michael Clifford dubbed bankroll management the most critical aspect of any daily sport in his NHL DFS 101 article earlier this year. One important part of building a bankroll is avoiding leaks. While initially a poker term, daily players are susceptible to their profit slowly dripping away in a number of ways.
Firstly, to beat the rake -- the first leak -- and turn a profit you need to win over 55 percent of your cash contests. Any real return requires a 60 percent success rate. So to start with, the odds aren't in your favor, and they quickly dwindle even further without a disciplined approach.
Personally, the biggest bankroll leak I have is playing outside my comfort sports. I enjoy playing daily basketball, but I usually do so at a loss. Friday, I finished mere points outside cashing all lineups across two sites in daily basketball. Having to win over 60 percent of my hockey contests to continue rolling at a profit is the result.
The other main leak is entering additional contests because I like a lineup. Sticking to the same contests each day or spending a consistent percent of your bankroll allows for more stability. All it can take is a late scratch on a site without late-lineup swaps to turn an optimal lineup into a disaster.
Over time and depending on your frequency and amount of play, these leaks can have a significant impact on your profit. It could be the difference of playing on an initial deposit for an extra month, or a rent payment over the course of a fantasy season.
Game Slates
It is worth looking over your daily hockey results and determining whether the number of NHL games in play has an influence on your results. Additionally, is there any difference in your success with cash games or GPPs based on the amount of games on the schedule?
I rarely play unless there are at least four games on the schedule. However, massive slates where there are 10 or more games can be extremely luck driven, especially for GPP contests. Knowing how the schedule impacts your results is worth considering, perhaps small slates or heavy scheduled nights are personal leaks. Just because you can play every night, doesn't mean you have to.
Four- to six-game nights are my preference. Typically, I can handicap the majority of games successfully and with a solid feel for the goal totals and game winners. It is also easier to identify value and narrow down your selections in a smaller player pool.
The lineup building process is less complicated with fewer options, too. If there are four games on the slate, select the night's top goalie and top two forwards and fill out your lineup around them. You'll likely have a choice between three goalies and six skaters, depending on which teams are in play that evening.
When there are 10 games in play, the goalie choice could be between as many as five or six goalies. The lineup of potential top skaters is an All-Star team. Selecting the wrong goalie and missing out on the top skater or two all but ruins any GPP lineup with that many games in play.
Nights with a smaller game slate allow lineups to have exposure to the majority of favorable matchups. Mini stacks of three teams are typically my personal approach. Hitting two of them will cash in the majority of 50/50 contests, and even make a little noise in GPPs.
With plenty of games on the slate, it is worth going contrarian in GPPs. Try to find an angle which provides cap relief and upside. Honing in on a team's second line in a favorable matchup, for example. A balanced lineup is the best approach in cash games. Spread the wealth around a solid goalie and fill out your lineup with mid-priced players in favorable matchups.
A Bag of Pucks
Here are six skaters to keep in mind when you're looking to save cap space for high-priced goalies and star forwards.
Colin Wilson, C/LW, Nashville: Top-six minutes and 21 points over his last 21 games, Wilson is scoring at an elite level. He carries a mid-range price tag, though. In favorable matchups, he is nearly a must play.
Andre Burakovsky, RW, Washington: His early season surge (eight points in October) subsided, but a relocation alongside Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom have Burakovsky back on the radar. His three points over the past two games will attest.
Brayden Schenn, C/LW, Philadelphia: While his season totals -- 29 points -- are solid, Schenn's price tag reflects his two assists over the past five games. He is cheap, capable and skating with Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux.
Valtteri Filppula, C, Tampa Bay: A relocation to Steven Stamkos' wing has Filpulla's fantasy stock on the rise. He has a goal and two helpers over his past two outings and is a dependable low- to mid-price play.
Cam Fowler, D, Anaheim: His recent promotion to the No. 1 power-play unit aligns with a four-game assist streak, and Fowler is having a fine offensive season -- 23 points. He receives a boost where plus/minus is rewarded, too.
Dan Boyle, D, New York: A six-game drought in the point column has Boyle's price down. Still, he is putting pucks on net consistently and manning the point on the No. 1 power-play unit. Offense will follow and reward at Boyle's cap hit.
