NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

This article is part of our NL FAAB Factor series.

This is our weekly look at National League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your free-agent budget you should bid on them.

This year, we're incorporating grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grids, which are sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. Carlos Correa would have been an "A" grade player last year -- that mark will be reserved for similar high-impact prospects stepping into an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

PLAYER TEAM POS GRADE $ (12-Team Mixed) $ (15-Team Mixed) $ (NL-Only)
Tanner Roark WAS SP B 5 13 19
Aaron Blair ATL SP C 4 9 13
Dan Straily CIN SP C 1 4 6
Cesar Vargas SD SP D No 0 2
Charlie Morton PHI SP D 1 4 6
Colin Rea SD SP D No 0 3
Tyler Chatwood COL SP D No 0 2
Andrew Bailey PHI RP C 1 3 6
Caleb Cotham CIN RP C 1 3 5
This is our weekly look at National League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your free-agent budget you should bid on them.

This year, we're incorporating grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grids, which are sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. Carlos Correa would have been an "A" grade player last year -- that mark will be reserved for similar high-impact prospects stepping into an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

PLAYER TEAM POS GRADE $ (12-Team Mixed) $ (15-Team Mixed) $ (NL-Only)
Tanner Roark WAS SP B 5 13 19
Aaron Blair ATL SP C 4 9 13
Dan Straily CIN SP C 1 4 6
Cesar Vargas SD SP D No 0 2
Charlie Morton PHI SP D 1 4 6
Colin Rea SD SP D No 0 3
Tyler Chatwood COL SP D No 0 2
Andrew Bailey PHI RP C 1 3 6
Caleb Cotham CIN RP C 1 3 5
David Phelps MIA RP C No 1 2
Hector Neris PHI RP C 1 2 3
Tucker Barnhart CIN C D No 1 3
Chase Utley LAD 2B C No 3 6
Adam Rosales SD 2B D No No 2
Daniel Castro ATL 2B D No No 0
Phil Gosselin ARI 2B D No No 1
Jemile Weeks SD 2B E No No 0
Jose Pirela SD 2B E No No 0
Aledmys Diaz STL SS C 2 6 9
Danny Espinosa WAS SS C 2 5 7
Freddy Galvis PHI SS C 1 4 6
Zack Cozart CIN SS C 1 5 9
David Freese PIT 3B B 2 7 13
Brandon Drury ARI 3B C No No 2
Aaron Hill MIL 3B D No 1 3
Melvin Upton Jr. SD OF C 3 8 10
David Lough PHI OF D No No 1
Ramon Flores MIL OF D No No 0
Alex Presley MIL OF E No No 0

Starting Pitcher

Tanner Roark, Nationals – Roark was no doubt owned in NL-only formats before he fanned 15 Twins in seven shutout innings Saturday, lowering his ERA to 2.63 in the process. The righty's career strikeout rate is just over 6.0 per nine innings, which makes his dominant effort that much more shocking. Assuming his usual pedestrian strikeout rate going forward, Roark still profiles as a mixed-league streaming option, especially at home in Nationals Park. It really helps that he'll see a lot of the NL East, which features two rebuilding squads in the Phillies and Braves along with the Marlins. 12-team mixed: $5; 15-team mixed: $13; 12-team NL: $19

Aaron Blair, Braves – The Braves finally came to the conclusion fantasy players figured out a long time ago, namely that Williams Perez is not very good at pitching. Blair was called up to take his spot in the rotation and while he's not as interesting as the likes of Lucas Giolito, Tyler Glasnow and Julio Urias, the soon-to-be 24-year-old right-hander is an imposing figure who's demonstrated strikeout ability on the farm. Featuring a fastball/change-up combo, his change is particularly deceptive emanating from a large six-foot-four, 250-pound frame. Curiously, Blair's strikeouts dropped in Double-A and Triple-A last season, though through three games at Triple-A Gwinnett so far this year he's punched out 22 in 19 frames. Atlanta isn't going to win many games so he isn't going to be an asset there, but pitchers with less of a pedigree than Blair have enjoyed success the first couple trips around the league. 12-team mixed: $4; 15-team mixed: $9; 12-team NL: $13

Dan Straily, Reds – After bouncing around organizations that had a full complement of starters or were competing for the playoffs and couldn't afford to give Straily an in-season audition, the 27-year-old righty landed with Cincinnati, a club actively seeking live arms for the future. Injuries to a couple of their prospects availed the opportunity for Straily to demonstrate he belongs in the rotation and not in the bullpen. It'll be a hard row to hoe working in The Great American Ballpark, especially as that reduces his utility as a spot starter since the usual favorable home outings aren't so favorable in the Queen's City. Still, with so many poor teams in the Senior Circuit, there will be chances to use Straily. 12-team mixed: $1; 15-team mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $6

Charlie Morton, Phillies – This pick lost much of its luster after Morton injured his hamstring running to first to cover a bunt during Saturday's contest. The reason Morton made the cut is a surprising two mph increase in fastball velocity, albeit in just a handful of starts. There's no way to know if it's actionable, but the cost to find out is minimal – and could even be lower if Morton has to miss some time. If that's the case, monitor his rehab and if the velocity gains are maintained, be ready to pounce. 12-team mixed: $1; 15-team mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $6

Colin Rea, Padres – Even though some downtown construction has made Petco Park a little less pitcher friendly, it's still a great place to take the hill which puts all Padres pitchers on the fantasy radar. Injuries to Tyson Ross and Robbie Erlin created a couple of rotation openings, one of which has been given to Rea. After being lambasted by the Rockies in Coors, Rea has settled down, fanning eleven with just three walks in his last two outings spanning 12 innings. You'll want to use Rea mostly at home but with Petco at his back, he should be able to pad your strikeouts without damaging ratios. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $0; 12-team NL: $3

Cesar Vargas, Padres – Technically, Rea solidified his rotation spot after Ross hit the DL, while Vargas was summoned from Double-A to fill in for Erlin. Don't be fooled by the final score in Vargas' Saturday debut against the Cardinals. He left after five, holding the Redbirds to one run, whiffing three while walking three along the way. Prior to this season Vargas was a reliever, mostly as a Yankees farmhand. His K:BB in the minors was impressive, but that was in the bullpen. There are better options for mixed leagues, even to stream. However, really deep leagues are often won by catching lightning in a bottle, and you never know unless you ask. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $0; 12-team NL: $2

Tyler Chatwood, Rockies – While it's not recommended to pick up a starter to stream on the road, pickings are slim in the Senior Circuit and Chatwood's road success is enticing. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $0; 12-team NL: $2

Relief Pitcher

Andrew Bailey, Phillies – After being sent to the minors to build up arm strength Bailey is back in the bigs, though the early word is Bailey will not be closing out games. That said, it's not like Jeanmar Gomes has an established track record of success so a proactive stash of Bailey could result in some saves down the line. 12-team mixed: $1; 15-team mixed: $3; 12-team NL: $6

Caleb Cotham, Reds – Speaking of a proactive stash, the Reds' brass expressed their displeasure with the job J.J. Hoover is doing as closer and is looking to replace him. Usage patterns suggest Tony Cingrani could be ahead of the ex-Yankee farmhand, but Cingrani is currently the only lefty in the bullpen and Cotham's early season success could earn him a ninth-inning look. 12-team mixed: $1; 15-team mixed: $3; 12-team NL: $5

David Phelps, Marlins – The Marlins are transitioning Phelps into a late-inning relief role and since A.J. Ramos doesn't have a lengthy track record of success, well, you never know. As a reliever, Phelps has increased his strikeout rate into the double digits while maintaining fine control. This is the type of arm you want in your lineup regardless in deep leagues, as well as an option to fill in for mixers when your starters have tough weeks. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $2

Hector Neris, Phillies – Starting the season with 10.1 scoreless frames and 17 whiffs against only three walks would garner more attention on a competitive team. However, that just keeps his price low, especially for a guy now in play as a speculative closer. 12-team mixed: $1; 15-team mixed: $2; 12-team NL: $3

Catcher

Tucker Barnhart, Reds – Barnhart has emerged as the Reds' No. 2 catcher behind Devin Mesoraco. With Mesoraco coming off his hip injury, Barnhart is seeing a little extra time early on this season, making him a possible play in deeper formats. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $3

Second Base

Chase Utley, Dodgers – During drafts, Utley was avoided since it was unclear how much he'd play when Howie Kendrick returned. It turns out Utley will play a lot as the club is moving Kendrick around, working him in at the hot corner and left field. With injuries and slow starts dampening an already thin position, Utley is looking good leading off. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $3; 12-team NL: $6

Adam Rosales, PadresCory Spangenberg's injury allows the Padres to get Rosales' stick in the lineup a little more often, with those extra at-bats very useful for NL-only owners looking to plug a hole in the middle or even corner infield. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL: $2

Daniel Castro, Braves – Castro was called up in mid-April and appeared to be on the lesser side of a platoon with Jace Peterson but since he's been outplaying his teammate, Castro has essentially taken over the keystone full time. He doesn't offer a ton in the way of power or speed, which takes him out of mixed consideration. However, the handful of runs and RBI he'll collect are better than replacement level for NL-only owners. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL: $0

Phil Gosselin, Diamondbacks – With Chris Owings now in the outfield, that's one fewer mouth the Snakes have to feed in their fluid infield. Gosselin is coming off a campaign as a reserve that saw him chip in with a solid 0.873 OPS and is showing signs of getting back in that range. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL: $1

Jemile Weeks, Padres – Weeks is getting a chance to fill in for Spangenberg, bringing a little speed to the table. Coming up through the Oakland Athletics organization then spending some time with Boston last season, Rickie's younger brother can coax a walk or two, but he just hasn't hit enough in between to sustain steady major league employment. Not much is likely to change now. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL: $0

Jose Pirela, Padres – Break glass in case of emergency. Pirela is nothing more than roster filler, dabbling a little in the outfield with the flexibility to fill in at second too. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL: $0

Shortstop

Aledmys Diaz, Cardinals - Diaz has been discussed in this space earlier but that was before he assumed the shortstop gig full time and is now in danger of losing it again with the return of Ruben Tejada. It isn't a foregone conclusion that Diaz sits, though, as the Redbirds are on a roll and Diaz has been a major contributor. 12-team mixed: $2; 15-team mixed: $6; 12-team NL: $9

Danny Espinosa, Nationals – A slow start in combination with top prospect Trea Turner biding his time on the farm has antsy Espinosa owners looking elsewhere and releasing him back into the pool. Granted, he's not a game changer, but Espinosa is better than he's played thus far and at least for now, the club is sticking with him. 12-team mixed: $2; 15-team mixed: $5; 12-team NL: $7

Freddy Galvis, Phillies – No one wanted Galvis on draft day since he plays for a weak Phillies squad and he's, you know, Freddy Galvis. But three weeks into the season, with injuries already starting to mount, anyone with a full-time gig is in play. 12-team mixed: $1; 15-team mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $6

Zack Cozart, Reds – A lot of what applies to Galvis is true for Cozart, especially the "he's Zack Cozart" part. But, he's been hitting ahead of Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce, which isn't a bad place to be. 12-team mixed: $1; 15-team mixed: $5; 12-team NL: $9

Third Base

David Freese, Pirates – Sometimes it's best not to ask questions and just go with the flow, so instead of wondering why the Bucs thinking hitting Freese third is a good idea, pick him up instead. That said, don't expect it to last as he's displaying no power. Still, it's apparent the Pirates plan on using Freese at third regularly, at least until Jung-Ho Kang returns, which means something even when he's dropped down in the order. 12-team mixed: $2; 15-team mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $13

Brandon Drury, Diamondbacks – Drury is another one of the myriad of options the Diamondbacks mix and match. Especially in deep leagues, the lineup flexibility Drury will soon offer can come in handy. Of all the puzzle pieces, Drury is most likely to emerge with more playing time if someone gets hurt or really underperforms. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL: $2

Aaron Hill, Brewers: Hill's cold start has landed him on waiver wires in all formats. While he won't approach the production of five years ago, the club doesn't have any other viable options so they'll keep running him out there… and at-bats are at-bats. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $3

Outfield

Melvin Upton Jr., Padres – It's time to acknowledge that Upton Jr. isn't the dumpster fire most perceived a few weeks ago. If nothing else he's running, and thus is a source of some cheap bags which could aid owners who lost Ben Revere, Ender Inciarte or even A.J. Pollock. 12-team mixed: $3; 15-team mixed: $8; 12-team NL: $10

David Lough, Phillies – The Phillies are auditioning youngsters for the future, but with Odubel Herrera and Tyler Goeddel scuffling, the club has opted to give this journeyman fly-chaser a look. Lough has a modicum of power and speed (prorates to about 10/10 over a full season) so he's in play in NL-only. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL: $1

Ramon Flores, Brewers – With the demotion of Keon Broxton, Flores along with Kirk Nieuwenhuis will see the majority of the run in center field. That said, unless Flores picks it up, his average will hurt more than the limited counting stats will help. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL: $0

Alex Presley, Brewers – Being called a poor man's David Lough isn't a ringing endorsement, but with the Brewers' aforementioned hole in center field, they could turn to Presley as a stopgap until Brett Phillips is ready. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL: $0

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
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