MLB Barometer: A Wink and a Smyly

Spring is in full swing, and with the excitement of a new season upon us comes spontaneous rankings adjustments and overreactions. Kris Bryant's ADP rises a full round with every two-homer spring outing. Mookie Betts and Jorge Soler fly another few spots up draft boards on seemingly a daily basis. A small, successful sample size from borderline utility guys push down the old and boring, like Matt Holliday, David Wright and Justin Morneau. We all do our best to not overreact to the smallest spring training news, but we are human, after all, and we all want a piece of the action.

Those of us who play in contests with overall prizes like the NFBC and CDM know that we have to take risks to win the big money and that a team filled with Matt Holliday types simply won't get us there in and of itself. Correctly hitting on our calculated risks can pay dividends, but how many times can we allow ourselves to get burned in the first or second round by a hyped youngster like Bryce Harper or Yasiel Puig? Most of last year's difference-makers were available after the first 100 picks (Jose Altuve, Victor Martinez, Brian Dozier, Corey Dickerson) or in some cases, not drafted at all (Carlos Carrasco, Jake Arrieta, Charlie Blackmon, Lucas Duda, J.D. Martinez). There is certainly something to be said about playing it safe with the healthy, solid Adam Jones types early and saving our risks for later on down the draft -- those who put in the prep time will rightfully reap those rewards and hit on later round gems.

So here we are. Two weeks from Opening Day, with most of the big money NFBC drafts taking place over the next couple of weekends. Those who attend these live drafts in Las Vegas, New York and Chicago know that ADP is very often thrown out of the window. Sharp fantasy owners get the players they want, when they want them. ADP serves a great guide for identifying ranges for your targets, but those who follow it religiously are exactly the type of players you want to compete against. Having confidence in your research and thinking outside the box have, and will always be, major keys to success in fantasy baseball.

That outside the box approach needs to be applied to this Barometer column as well. Simply looking at the risers and fallers each week as a "he's good, he's bad" list is missing the point. The purpose here is twofold -- to inform you of the top performers and underperformers over the most recent period (the last seven to 10 days), and to provide a fair assessment as to whether the recent streak -- whether good or bad -- is sustainable over the course of the season. Two of our "fallers" from last April -- Prince Fielder and Chris Carter -- took completely different paths after April last season. Fielder was clearly affected by a neck injury that ended his season prematurely, and Carter flipped a switch mid-summer and ended up cranking out 20 homers in July and August in route to 37 total (tied for second best in the majors). Jose Abreu, Devin Mesoraco and Anthony Rendon made the "risers" list last April and ended up on many league-winning rosters. Conversely, Blackmon was someone I kept waiting on to turn back into a roto pumpkin. Although he ended up with fine year-end numbers, all five of his standard roto categories took a severe dip in the second half of 2014.

Since Opening Day is not yet here, and you can find players doing well in spring training anywhere else, let's take a look at risers and fallers from paid NFBC drafts (ADP data before and after March 1) to see where they may fall in these final couple of weeks of draft season.

RISERS
Kris Bryant, 3B, CHC - What else can be said about Bryant that hasn't been discussed ad nauseam? Two things are for certain -- he has epic power and has very little to prove in the minors. Bryant launched another two homers in a spring training game this past weekend, including one against Felix Hernandez, and leads all hitters in home runs this spring. His stock has been rising almost by the hour, it seems. Per February NFBC data, his ADP was 104 (middle of round eight in 12-teamers), and his "Since March 1" ADP puts him at 94 -- though he has gone as high as 17th overall -- in NFBC's RotoWire Online Championship this past weekend. It's funny how quickly perspectives change day-by-day in the spring: I was weary of my ninth round selection of Bryant three weeks ago, yet he was taken in the early sixth round in my Online Championship draft on Sunday. Bryant went for what appears to be a reasonable $18 in the Tout Wars NL-Only Auction over the weekend, but that of course is a different format. The former second overall pick can make a difference immediately, and has the potential to hit 30-plus homers in his rookie year -- a feat only 11 major league hitters accomplished in 2014. He's the elixir in this new power-starved MLB. But there's a huge downside, and it will rear its ugly head at some point in his rookie season -- the plate discipline. He had a 27.3 percent strikeout rate between Double-A and Triple-A last year. A good over/under to set batting average bets with your friends is probably right around .250. The sky is certainly the limit, but be sure to set reasonable expectations when determining your own comfort zone (round) for drafting Bryant this year. For me, that's in the 70-90 range overall, which means I likely won't own any more shares.

Matt Harvey, SP, NYM - Harvey has been steadily climbing up draft boards this spring into the upper echelon of starting pitchers upon what looks like a near full recovery from Tommy John surgery. Prior to March 1, Harvey was going around 65th overall (mid-sixth round in 12-teamers) and this month he has crept into SP1 territory as the 12th starter off the board around pick 54. Harvey is now 18 months removed from TJS, a full five months longer than Adam Wainwright's recovery time, who struggled upon his return in 2012. Wainwright posted a 3.94 ERA that year -- a far cry from his 3.01 career ERA. Though other starters like Danny Duffy and Stephen Strasburg pitched well after similar recovery times, they were small sample sizes (< 30 IP). And those are the two very rare examples of success upon return from TJS. Harvey has looked good this spring, and any numbers within even 30 percent of his epic 2013 would be considered a success (2.27 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 9.65 K/9, 0.35 HR/9). Harvey is slated to toe the rubber for the Mets' third game. The team isn't expected to be very competitive, so there is always the possibility of Harvey getting shut down in September, which is a crucial stretch for which to have lost your SP1. Setting expectations for 25-28 solid starts -- several of those against the inferior lineups of the Braves and Phillies - would be most reasonable. Harvey's risk and lower floor of expected starts are currently baked into his price, but any further rise in his draft stock may not be worth it. Taking Harvey confidently over Cole Hamels or Jordan Zimmermann is already a bit of a stretch. I'd rather have Hamels and Zimm.

A.J. Pollock, OF, ARI - The 27-year-old leadoff hitter for the Diamondbacks has not been climbing up the NFBC ADP with the vigor I anticipated, as Pollock has only moved up one round since last month -- from 168 (round 14) to 176 (round 15). Perhaps it's the injury concerns, or the plethora of solid alternatives available in the outfield where Pollock is going. Or maybe sharp drafters just don't want to let this cat out of the bag. The truth is Pollock is in a prime position to succeed given his capacity to contribute to all five standard cats, though expectations of a 2015 version of last year's Michael Brantley numbers breakout might be a stretch. Pollock was off to a fine start last year (8 HR, 12 SB, .316) through the first two months of the season until his right hand was fractured by a pitch on May 31. He then returned to leadoff for the DBacks down the stretch, sans the pop in his bat. Pollock is more likely to steal 20 than he is to hit 20 -- he stole successfully on 57-of-72 attempts in the minors over two seasons (2012-2013). Having a healthy Paul Goldschmidt hitting two spots after him will be a big benefit as well. You can certainly do worse than Pollock as your third outfielder in a 12 or 15-team league as he is priced to exceed his average draft position this year if he can play 140 games.

Michael Taylor, OF, WAS - The other Michael Taylor steps in to a dream role as the leadoff hitter for the Nationals with speedy veteran Denard Span on the shelf for at least the first month of the season. Span had two core muscle surgeries over the past three months and the issue can quite easily dwell into the summer months, opening a longer-term opportunity for Taylor. Taylor will come cheap in drafts, but the cost of acquisition is rising at a scorching pace -- almost a full 100 picks since March 1. Taylor's ADP in deep 15-team NFBC leagues was 412 in February, and he's cracked the top 30 rounds of 12-teamers this month falling in at an ADP of 332, with a high pick of 201. Consider that 201 a huge outlier. Taylor's biggest flaws are the one the Nationals need him to correct the most -- he doesn't walk enough for a leadoff hitter and only once has had an OBP greater than .340 in five minor league seasons. Taylor can run though. He averaged 42 stolen bases over this last two minor league seasons, but has a strikeout-rate above 25 percent throughout his minor league tenure. In his cup of tea with the Nats last year, he struck out 17 times in 43 plate appearances (39.5 percent). Taylor plays a good outfield and doesn't have much competition for the leadoff spot to start the year. There is a very good chance owners can fuel Taylor's hot start in the spring into a scorching April where he can produce double-digit runs, hit a few home runs and throw in some steals before Span returns and reclaims his gig. A best case scenario for Taylor is for Span to recover slowly while Taylor matures before our eyes and contributes at a level that far exceeds his draft day price. Keep an eye on Taylor over the next couple of weeks in the later rounds. Oh, and wish him a happy 24th birthday this Thursday.

FALLERS

Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL - Freeman falls mostly because he is vanilla. He's a boring low-home run hitting first baseman at a position where fantasy drafters demand power. This season, Freeman will undoubtedly play with the weakest collection of talent the Braves have had in recent memory where bad dreams of his subpar 78 RBI last season are turning into overblown nightmares of what is to come in 2015. It is not to say that Freeman isn't capable of putting up decent numbers. He did drive in 103 runs while hitting .319 in 2013 and though he's not the ideal power first baseman, Freeman is a very smart, patient hitter, an all-around solid ballplayer who may has not even seen his full power breakout given that he's only 25 years old. Since February, he's fallen almost a full round to current March drafts (from 43 to 51) and drafters have been taking Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols ahead of him with ease. I'd personally draft the steady but boring Adrian Gonzalez ahead of him, but there are many ways Freeman can still work as your starting first basemen. Perhaps you've started your draft with Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Bautista types who give you a nice power base. You can then be more comfortable taking on batting average risks of a Chris Carter in the tenth or Mark Teixeira/Ryan Howard in the early 20s as your CI, knowing that Freeman's average can help mitigate those weaknesses. Or perhaps Nick Markakis and Melvin Upton Jr. reinvent themselves, Jose Peraza gets called up, and the pitching staff of studly youngsters keep the Braves afloat throughout the season -- with Captain Freeman at the helm (of course, I'm kidding about Upton). Bottom line is, don't count the talented 25-year-old out. Grab him at a good value on draft day if you like him and build with the right complimentary players in mind. At the very least, do your fantasy team a favor and give him his rightful due-process before you reject him.

Drew Smyly, SP, TB - Full disclosure: I've had a roto crush on Smyly since his rookie year. A young lefty with a fastball that topped out at 95 mph who was sadly relegated to the pen after losing out on the fifth spot in the rotation to Rick Porcello last year. The fastball speed has since decreased a notch, but he has improved on his cutter and curveball and was traded to a park where ratios can flourish. Smyly pitched very well in Tampa Bay over the last two months -- 44 K and just 11 BB in just under 48 IP -- and he was priced fairly at an ADP of 179 (end of 14th round) in 12-team leagues before shoulder tendonitis delayed him this spring. Smyly has fallen a full round since March 1 and I was happy to snag him as an SP4 with Jeff Erickson in the 17th round of our March 16 NFBC 12-teamer. Smyly threw a 30-pitch bullpen session on Monday and is likely to have just one start skipped. He has spent about half of his career in middle relief, but has nice career ratios through three seasons (3.24 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) and is worth a shot to help your pitching staff based on his currently depressed price.

Mike Zunino, C, SEA - I'm glad by this point I've refreshed you on the fact that there are promising names in our "fallers" list, and vice versa. Freeman and Smyly are two "fallers" who may be available at worthy spots in your draft and may find themselves on the 'risers' list sometime this season. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for Big Mike. Zunino has tremendous pop -- he hit 22 homers in 438 at-bats -- tied for third among catchers with Buster Posey. But a .199 batting average and a 33 percent K-rate are not worth taking on in your lineup, no matter where he falls. Zunino might hit .230 in a good year, but again, it's simply not worth the negative exposure for your team batting average. Get your power elsewhere and take someone like Travis d'Arnaud, Wilson Ramos or Yasmani Grandal a round or two earlier. If you want to wait, why not take a shot with Jason Castro as your C2? Almost every player has his price if he falls far enough -- Zunino is on my short list of DNDs (Do Not Draft).

Arismendy Alcantara, UT, CHC - Alcantara is expected to be the Cubs' Swiss army knife this year, covering in the infield and outfield and likely batting near the top and bottom of the lineup. It's also quite possible that Alcantara wins the second base job outright, sending Javier Baez to the minors for more seasoning. Baez does not look major league ready, hitting just .135 this spring as his draft stock is falling fast. Interestingly enough, Alcantara's stock has not had the inverse effect -- his NFBC ADP has fallen from 256 to 282 since the beginning of March, largely due to the lack of clarity about a full-time job. Alcantara has been heating up lately, homering in both weekend games, though it came from the eighth spot in the lineup. Either way, Alcantara is another player on a long list of players who have 15/20 potential this year, if he can get the at-bats -- and it comes at a much lower point in your draft. Sometimes you just take the talent and let the chips fall where they may.