MLB Barometer: All-Undervalued Team

Draft month is quickly coming to an end as our focus shifts to shoring up our Week 1 lineups with overlooked players in FAAB and, of course, the start of the regular season. The first few live NFBC drafts took place in Las Vegas last weekend with another set of drafts to come this weekend in New York, Chicago and another Vegas round. Primetime is the shark-infested 12-teamer with an $80,000 grand prize for 204 entries, while the Main Event is the grinding, grueling 15-teamer with 450 entries.

My partner Andrew Moody and I drew the fifth slot in our Main league, while RotoWire colleague Jeff Erickson drew the backend elbow at 15. We weren't too thrilled having to battle him all year given his track record and the fact that we share a RotoWire NFBC Online Championship team. Jeff started with the power/speed combo of Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Altuve while Andrew and I were happy to get Paul Goldschmidt fifth overall. We followed up by taking another shot with Bryce Harper at 2.11 and Justin Upton at 3.5. Goldschmidt was our first-round target heading into the draft, so we were happy to get him. After drafting a half dozen 12-teamers, it was tough to adjust to the breadth and depth of a 15-team draft, though our cheat sheets were chock full of upside fifth starters, potential future closers and nearly ready Triple-A talents. All in all, it was one beast of a draft filled with tough competition.

Upon review, our starting hitters project within 90 percent of our target in HR and RBI, but we are definitely light in BA and SB as we will be keeping an eye out for cheap free-agent speed. Our early strategy was to take hitters with a solid HR/SB mix for the first four rounds and to wait on pitching if Stephen Strasburg, David Price and Chris Sale were taken before our second-round pick -- and that's exactly what ended up happening. Despite not drafting a bona fide ace, we were fond of our SP depth and took Masahiro Tanaka as our second arm with the full understanding of the risk - that he would either be our ace or could hit the disabled list at any time. Injury-prone Michael Pineda was our primary alternative at that point with Jake Arrieta and Michael Wacha just coming off the board. Andrew and I will be watching Tanaka's starts with our breath held. With $125,000 grand prize at stake, we certainly took the no-risk, no-reward approach in a few spots.

Here's the final product (round listed):

C: Yasmani Grandal (13), Chris Iannetta (24)
1b: Paul Goldschmidt (1)
2b: Brian Dozier (4)
3b: Pedro Alvarez (12)
SS: Starlin Castro (7)
CI: Mark Teixeira (20)
MI: Jose Ramirez (22)
UT: Kendrys Morales (21)
OF: Bryce Harper (2), Justin Upton (3), A.J. Pollock (11), Michael Morse (16), Kevin Kiermaier (25)
SP: James Shields (6), Masahiro Tanaka (8), Garrett Richards (9), Mat Latos (14), Derek Holland (25), Shelby Miller (17)
RP: Craig Kimbrel (5), Santiago Casilla (10), Chad Qualls (19)
Bench hitters: David Peralta (26), Alex Guerrero (28)
Bench Pitchers: Carlos Rodon (18), Sergio Romo (23), Hector Santiago (27), Rafael Montero (29) Rafael Soriano (30)

Rather than breaking down our thought process per round, or listing spring training risers and fallers again, this week's piece would best be served identifying some of the most overlooked and undervalued players from this weekend's high-stakes drafts. Last week's assumption that ADP gets thrown out the window at live NFBC events rang true as many of the popular young studs were consistently taken at unprecedented highs including Matt Harvey, (second round), Kris Bryant (fifth round), Mookie Betts (sixth round), Michael Wacha (sixth round). Even George Springer was drafted 11th overall by NFBC Hall-of-Famer Lindy Hinkelman in the Main Event. Lindy got the guy he wanted, knowing he may not be available in the second round. Come 12 months from now, we might be talking about Springer as a top-3 overall fantasy pick.

Based on my last few weeks of drafting, updated ADP and the results from the NFBC Vegas drafts, here is my all-undervalued (under-drafted) team of hitters:

Yasmani Grandal (C, LAD) - Full disclosure, Grandal is on all of my teams this year, and not just because he is on the Dodgers. Besides, to draft with the heart is to give competitors an edge. Ranked as the sixth catcher in my 2015 projections, Grandal has been drafted as the 14th catcher in 12-team mixed leagues, usually falling between picks 190 and 230. I have yet to reach too far up the ADP ladder for him, nabbing him in the 18th round, on average, over six 12-team drafts. Grandal has power upside even without the supplements (18-plus round trippers), decent plate discipline (less than 20 percent K-rate projection) and is as post-hype as they come for a backstop with power. Grandal should hit sixth in the lineup until Joc Pederson gets moves up. He was unlucky at the plate (.277 BABIP, .225 BA) in 2014, but he hits the ball hard and could very well surprise with an average in the .270-.285 range. A 65 R, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 3 SB, .272 line plays as a top-eight catcher this season. He could be the most interesting catcher in the world. Stay healthy, my friend.

Honarable Mentions: Wilson Ramos (C, WAS), Jason Castro (C, HOU)
Not Buying It: Mike Zunino (C, SEA)

Kendrys Morales (1B, KC) - Morales is one of draft day's biggest bargains in 2015. Available almost a full 100 picks after Steve Pearce, Morales can be yours for a low, low price -- toward the end of most 12-team leagues with an ADP of 322. In fact, I'd rather have Kendrys over Pearce straight up. He is 31 now, but feel free to shove his disrupted 2014 season to the curb. The .207 BA in 213 games last year dragged his career average down to .271, but Morales should be a lock for .260-plus in 2015. He will start the season hitting in the middle of a solid lineup that ranked top five in the majors in hits and batting average -- no thanks to Billy Butler's rough season. Morales should step into Butler's shined shoes and fill them out nicely, perhaps with a few extra surprise homers. Morales isn't going to set the league on fire and rank as a top-50 hitter, but for the price, you can expect something close to 65-17-77-0-.285 -- well worth the price of a late-round flier.

Honarable Mentions: Matt Adams (1B, STL), Mark Teixeira (1B, NYY)
Not Buying It: Steve Pearce (1B/OF, BAL)

Brandon Phillips (2B, CIN) - I'm not in love with Phillips and didn't get him on any teams this year, but I think his sharp fall down the ADP rankings is a bit extreme. Phillips is the 17th second baseman drafted with an ADP of 277 (low of 357). How confident can we really be this year in a 21-year-old Rougned Odor or Aaron "over the" Hill? Two glaring signs that point to the contrary: his age (33) and sharp speed decline (2 SB in 2014). Phillips dealt with injuries last year, playing 121 games, but the walk rate (5 percent) and strikeout rate (15 percent) were not much different from previous seasons. Keep in mind this is a middle infielder who drove in 103 batters just two seasons ago. Starting the year healthy and hitting either second or sixth, expect something in the range of 15 HR, 70 RBI, 60 R (plus or minus 10 on the runs and ribbies depending on batting slot). Phillips hasn't done us any favors in the batting average category since 2011, but don't expect him to slide under .260 that easily. He fills an MI need in a sea of uncertainty (Odor, Gennett, Gyorko, Hill) and should exceed his draft day price.

Honarable Mention: Daniel Murphy (2B, NYM)
Not Buying It: Rougned Odor (2B, TEX), Micah Johnson (2B, CHW)

Pedro Alvarez (3B, PIT) - He will never win a batting title, but if you dug into his disappointing 2014, you will notice that Alvarez actually improved his plate discipline despite the drop in standard 5x5 roto category production. His strikeout rate fell from 30 to 25 percent, and he improved his walk rate as well (from 8 to 10 percent). You all remember that Alvarez hit 36 and 30 homers in his first two full seasons in the big leagues, right? And that he was one of only 14 hitters to drive in 100 or more runs in 2013? Alvarez's ADP is about 200 overall -- right in the range of Martin Prado and Aramis Ramirez. Granted, Ramirez is a solid late-round CI to help batting average if you need it, but how many hitters offer 40-homer upside this late in the draft, and in a new age power-deprived league? Alvarez provides two plus categories (HR and RBI) and works best in the middle rounds for fantasy teams that aren't already loaded with potential low-average power hitters like George Springer, Chris Davis and Chris Carter.

Honarable Mentions: Nick Castellanos (3B, DET), Will Middlebrooks (3B, SD)
Not Buying It: Josh Donaldson (3B, TOR)

Starlin Castro (SS, CHC) - Shortstop is yet again a barren wasteland with a lot of uncertainty, starting with Troy Tulowitzki and our collective assumption of games played. Although I am never one to play the position scarcity game and force names like Alexei Ramirez and Elvis Andrus, one player looks in a good position to exceed his draft day value among the second- and third-tier shortstops. The value is based on two factors -- his speed and the lineup around him. Castro has not run much the last two seasons, nor has he been successful when trying (13-for-23), but he did steal 25 and 22 in previous seasons. Castro is very quick, and can exceed that 106 ADP value if he can improve his decision-making on the basepaths. Manager Joe Maddon should help that aggressiveness, but Castro likely won't exceed 10-15 SB. In his first three seasons, Castro averaged 183 hits in 662 at-bats over his first three seasons and hit north of .290 last year and in his rookie year. Taking more walks will hopefully lead to an OBP higher than .350 for the first time in his career. It also looks like Castro will hit from the cleanup spot ahead of Fowler, Soler, Rizzo -- until Bryant is called up. That is an incredible lineup spot for RBI, and perhaps we see the bump to 20 HR this year. There are a lot of pieces that need to come together but the perfect storm feels like it's brewing for Castro in 2015.

Honorable Mentions: Wilmer Flores (2B/SS, NYM)
Not Buying It: Jean Segura (SS, MLW)

Jason Heyward (OF, STL) - While in Las Vegas, I should have checked the odds on the prop bet of Jason Heyward for NL MVP. Sounds extreme, but that is what I think Heyward is capable of with the Cardinals this year. Heyward is one of the toughest top-50 hitters to project across the five standard hitting categories as those numbers have swayed to extremes (27 HR in 2012, 11 in 2014; 21 SB in 2012, 2 in 2013). Heyward is an even better bet to lead the National League in runs than Starlin Castro provided Matt Holliday has something left in the tank and Matt Adams is the prodigious run-producer I think he can be. The Cardinals are expected to take a more aggressive approach to running the bases this year, and Heyward will lead the charge. He is the 20th outfielder taken in NFBC drafts this spring (ADP of 76), but it feels too high. Don't forget that Heyward is only 25; 25 HR and 25 SB in his age-25 season sounds about right. Heyward may find himself in the running for NL MVP and help fantasy owners by producing as an OF1.

Khris Davis (OF, MLW) - Davis is another draft-day bargain, discounted because of the universal misconceived notion that his plate discipline is as bad as that other Davis in Baltimore. Khris Davis' strikeout-rate is 22 percent in 200 career games, and he has hit 33 home runs with 97 runs scored and 96 runs batted in. That strikeout rate is in right in line with his minor league numbers, though he has walked less since joining the big club. Davis struggled against righties last year (.239/.298/.451) and will be spelled by the defensively superior Gerardo Parra at times, but Davis' bat may keep him in the lineup. He is another guy with 30-plus homer power who is available after the first 200 picks are off the board. Davis is 27 and ready to take another step forward in offensive production.

Jake Marisnick (OF, HOU) - All of us have those late-round breakout calls we're proud of. Last year, I drafted Corey Dickerson on every team I could. In 2012, I pegged Edwin Encarnacion for a 40-homer breakout and was laughed off my email chain. For every Dickerson and E5, I've picked a Cameron Maybin or a Dayan Viciedo (though I'm still holding out hope for the latter). Either way, I can say that I've been more right than wrong over the years on guys I stick my neck out for. This year, that guy for me is Marisnick. Marisnick has never hit more than 14 homers at any level, yet I believe he flirts with 15 this year. Last season, he combined for 35 SB between Triple-A and the majors and with enough playing time, Marisnick can steal 25 or more. Perhaps I'm nuttier than Doc Brown at the clock tower to project 15 HR with 25 SB, a feat accomplished by only four hitters last year -- Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Gomez, Charlie Blackmon, Jimmy Rollins -- but the late rounds is the place to take chances. Marisnick is available at the end of drafts, but the price is rising, as was witnessed in Vegas this weekend and with the recent news of Marisnick being named the Astros' starting center fielder. It's also good to read that he and Springer have had a healthy competition to push one another on the field this spring. Marisnick has already been traded a couple times in his young career but has yet to have a chance at steady playing time beyond the last couple months of the 2013 season where he hit .270 with three homers, seven stolen bases, 18 runs and 19 RBI -- in 174 at-bats. He is my top late-round must-draft player. I hope he gets off to a cold start so that the owner in my Main Event team drops him.

Honorable Mentions: Rusney Castillo (OF, BOS), Lorenzo Cain (OF, KC), Oswaldo Arcia (OF, MIN), Michael Morse (OF, MIA), Juan Lagares (OF, NYM), David Peralta (OF, ARI)
Not Buying It: Billy Hamilton (OF, CIN), Matt Kemp (OF, SD), J.D. Martinez (OF, DET)