Mound Musings: Time to Start the New AL Arms Watch

In May I typically start looking at the kids that may be arriving soon, but there have been so many injuries, I feel the need to move the clock up a bit this year. The most interesting part of this exercise is trying to identify arms with a good chance to provide positive results over an extended period of time, and those that might make a splash right after they arrive, and then fade badly as they become more familiar to major league hitters. We'll take a look at some American League possibilities.

Many will come and go, but only a few can make a big impact.

It's a challenging time in real and fantasy baseball. Teams have had a chance to evaluate the effectiveness of the starters they brought out of spring training, and already injuries have taken their toll on the rotations of several teams. For fantasy owners, when new rotation options begin appearing, you have to sort out which ones could be a help to your team, and which are merely placeholders or fillers.

There are many variables that impact whether the call up or newly anointed starter is a genuine boost or a short term patch intended to address an immediate need. In April and May, if a starter goes down with an injury that is expected to be relatively minor, teams will usually avoid calling up their top prospects. Similarly, if they decide they need to make a change, they will try to find a more "disposable" option rather than starting the arbitration clock on a blue chip prospect they want to keep long term.

Most options already on the major league roster have somewhat limited upside, but there can be exceptions. The team may be trying to control a pitcher's workload early on (usually a positive sign), or they may prefer not to expose a particular pitcher to multiple trips through opposing batting orders (a weakness in repertoire that is usually a bad sign). Just like new arrivals from the minor leagues, your job is to identify the pitchers with upside and avoid the emergency plug ins with less chance to succeed.

Here are some AL arms I am anxious to see called up or inserted into the rotation:

• Kevin Gausman (Orioles) - You've probably already realized Gausman's name is likely to appear in this column often. I remain convinced he is capable of providing high quality numbers this season, and having begun the season in the bullpen, he may not be all that appealing to fantasy owners in many leagues. He will move to the rotation - probably within the next few weeks - and when that happens there will be a scramble for his services. Beat the crowd.

• Alex Meyer (Twins) - This is two for the price of one. Yes, Meyer is benefitting from innings in the minors while he works on locking in his release point, but I think this is more of a case of using a less valuable placeholder (Trevor May) while protecting the higher value arms like Meyer and Jose Berrios. Healthy or hurt Ricky Nolasco isn't the future for the Twins so when it's prudent, Meyer and Berrios are going to be in Minnesota, and both have the skill set to help your fantasy team right out of the gate. The Twins have stumbled out of the gate but there is reason for optimism, and these two young arms are a part of that.

• Carlos Rodon (White Sox) - Scouts compare Rodon to another lefty with the Sox, Chris Sale. That sounds like enough to get him plenty of attention. He has a truly devastating slider and a plus fastball to go with a still developing change-up but all the pieces are there. The White Sox made moves this winter to put themselves in the hunt, so they won't hesitate to call on Rodon when the situation calls for it. He's talented, but he is still rough around the edges so refining his command, learning to limit the running game, and fielding his position better will all help, but the pitching part of his game is nearly ready.

• Henry Owens (Red Sox) - Owens has moved through the Red Sox system rather quickly and should be in Boston sooner rather than later. He has a solid fastball with a lot of movement but just so-so velocity and he compliments it with a very good change-up. He'll mix in the occasional breaking pitch, but that's where he's working to improve, including a slider he just added to the repertoire. Like many young southpaws his command can come and go at times, but he has shown the ability to throw strikes with increased frequency. They may give him time to refine that new slider but he'll be in Fenway Park soon.

• Anthony Ranaudo (Rangers) - The Rangers don't have anyone I would consider a serious blue chip prospect in their system, but they certainly have plenty of need on the mound so I'll throw Ranaudo out there. I'm also going to give him a mulligan for that start on Wednesday. Ranaudo was the pitcher of the year in the International League last season, and when he throws strikes he can be a handful. He has four solid if not spectacular pitches and an innings eater body. When he stays down in the zone - something he didn't do against the Angels - he throws a heavy offering. When he gets up, his pitch counts rise and he can become prone to serving up home runs. Watch to see if he settles in and starts being more commanding of the zone. He just needs to trust his stuff.

Some Other Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I have walked the fence on Jacob deGrom regarding the long term, but he is winning me over with every outing I watch. He has four decent pitches, the best of which is probably a two-seam fastball with a lot of run. In fact, all of his pitches move and he stays away from the center of the plate. He still needs some work on his command, but there are signs he is going to keep coming. I may have to start paying more attention to the Stetson University program as both deGrom and fellow alum Corey Kluber seem to be faring pretty well.
  
• One of the pitchers I am most anxious to see even though he doesn't really qualify as a newcomer or fill in is Garrett Richards. All reports suggest his rehab is going well and he should be back on the hill as soon as next week. Richards was enjoying one of the most impressive breakout seasons I have watched before a fluke knee injury knocked him out. He was of just modest interest, but everything started moving and he became a gem. Get him if you can.
  
• Time to admit it - I am a bit concerned about Jordan Zimmermann. His velocity is down slightly which isn't a huge thing, but I'm used to seeing him put every pitch right where he wants it and that's not happening. Add to that some ridiculous defense by a team that should be one of the best around and the Nationals have to wonder when it will end. The Boston game was embarrassing.
  
• It's possible Trevor Bauer has begun to get his house in order, but despite that sparkling 2015 debut, I am hesitant to say he is fully ready to stake his claim. This is always a tricky decision. Bauer has the skill set to be a very good (and fantasy relevant) pitcher, but inconsistency could create havoc in your fantasy rotation. He will be grabbed by a brave soul, but I think I'll pass and take the chance that he's not going to shine every time he takes the mound.
  
• With Homer Bailey coming back and scheduled to start this weekend, the Reds sent Raisel Iglesias down to get in some innings. He only pitched about 50 bullpen innings in 2013 while in Cuba, and he didn't pitch at all in 2014 until the Arizona Fall League so he needs to build up his arm strength. The Reds believe his future is in the rotation, but he needs to work on all of his pitches based on what I saw in his one Cincinnati start. Keep an eye on him while at Triple-A.
  
• One of those flash-in-the-pan starters to avoid would be Nick Martinez of the Rangers. Over two starts, he hasn't allowed an earned run in 14 innings, and now sports a 2-0 record on the young season. However, keep in mind he is a flyball pitcher in a hitter's ballpark, has mediocre stuff, and walks too many without many strikeouts. Let someone else jump on his bandwagon.

Endgame Odyssey:

We're not even two weeks into the season and the odyssey is already in motion. In Toronto the Jays felt like Brett Cecil wasn't really ready to handle closing duties and they have handed the job to 20-year-old Miguel Castro. Castro may or may not hold the job permanently (yet) - they say Cecil may close again when he has some more innings under his belt - but long term Castro is a very good bet. Jenrry Mejia went on the disabled list, and was then suspended for half the season for using a performance enhancing drug. Jeurys Familia will have to fight off Bobby Parnell as he is close to returning, but I think Familia is the guy to own. I am a little concerned about how ready Koji Uehara is to step in and close, but Edward Mujica hasn't been very effective and the Red Sox think they need their regular closer back as soon as possible. There has been talk about Chris Hatcher being the fill-in closer for the Dodgers, but I think the actual nod would go to Joel Peralta. Of course, neither will be in the conversation once Kenley Jansen gets healthy, but they are now talking May. Steve Cishek has been an early-season train wreck but the Marlins don't have a lot of good options. His leash is probably pretty long, but he needs to show some results soon. The same can be said of LaTroy Hawkins in Colorado has apparently been "temporarily" relieved of closing duties. John Axford has a save, and their former closer Rafael Betancourt was recently used successfully in the ninth inning, but Adam Ottavino is the guy and will be closing for the foreseeable future. This becoming a permanent change wouldn't be a surprise.