Mound Musings: Know When to Hold ‘Em

Last week I discussed some pitchers who got off to a very good start this year, but who I feel might be risky plays the rest of the way. There are a lot of reasons a pitcher can look very good for a while, but then crash back to Earth. Similarly, some pitchers will struggle for a stretch – sometimes a pretty long stretch covering weeks or even months – but then get things ironed out and put on quite a show for an extended period of time. Those are the guys we will be looking for in this week's edition of Mound Musings.

So, what makes good things happen after a pitcher looks like waiver wire fodder for a couple of months? There are a lot of variables that can contribute. Some might have been nursing injuries, others may have developed some bad habits that affected their delivery, and it could be something as simple, albeit after awhile somewhat unlikely, as a case of bad luck. Regardless of the reasons, as an owner you want to know which guys are headed for a slip in performance, and which are ready to set the league on fire. After all, you gotta know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em.

Let's take a look at some arms to pursue (or hold on to) going forward:

Some selected pitchers I am bullish on for the second half:

Stephen Strasburg (Washington) – Just fair warning – there will be some gushing in this capsule. A month ago, after watching Strasburg gradually decline from his original level of performance over the past couple of years, I would not have considered him for this list. He returned from a neck injury last week, and for whatever reason, he returned to the form that made me proclaim him "the most exciting pitching prospect I have seen in years" when he first turned pro. The return was head-turning. I was shocked. I also watched the next start just to make sure I wasn't hallucinating. It was better yet.  His fastball sat easily at 96-98 mph with run, and touched 99 late in the game. I don't think I have seen that in a couple of years. His breaking pitches were so crisp, he may have fooled the umpire several times. Perhaps he is feeling 100% now, or maybe he made some subtle adjustments during his stint on the disabled list, but whatever happened, if it continues, he is at the top of this list, and back to being a top 10 starting pitcher.

Phil Hughes (Minnesota) – One of the benefits to having some of the best command on the mound in baseball is the ability to make adjustments when opposing hitters are getting the best of you. Hughes has walked a total of just 25 batters in over 308 innings covering this year and last. That is almost unbelievable. This year, he has been getting too much of the plate too often, and his home run rate is over double what it was in 2014. Additionally, his velocity has been down, and it looked at times as though he was throwing "get me over" pitches rather than allowing walks. Recently that has been less frequent, and his results have shown marked improvement. His strikeout rate has also improved lately, and it appears Hughes is poised to enjoy a strong second half. He's not a top tier starting pitcher, but he has the ability to limit baserunners. If he does that and keeps the ball in the park a little more often, he should be a useful fantasy asset.

Tyson Ross (San Diego) – There is no question, Ross has an excellent arm. However, his results on the mound this season have been disappointing. It's puzzling, but there are several statistical anomalies that could be contributing. Most obvious would be a walk rate that has jumped significantly. His average velocity is still there, but he hasn't commanded his fastball with the same authority. That has resulted in more baserunners and higher pitch counts. Another factor is his GB/FB ratio which has skewed much more to groundballs. Petco Park is actually fairly friendly to flyball pitchers, and while the Padres made a lot of moves to improve their offense last season, those moves also made their defense more porous. The result has been an inordinately high BABIP. I guess you could say this is like the perfect storm when you combine all of the factors. I'm going to defer to his stuff, and say I believe things will turn around in the second half. There is certainly some risk, but it's a risk worth taking. He has the tools to shine.

Garrett Richards (Los Angeles AL) – When Richards arrived, he showed me a nice arm, but just mediocre secondary stuff and a fastball that tended to be too straight, too often – worth watching, but nothing special. Then, last season, he began to evolve. He became more of a pitcher, he was more adept at mixing in more pitches, and his fastball started to move – a lot. By midseason he was a pitcher I aggressively touted as a rapidly rising star. Unfortunately, a freak knee injury ended his 2014 early. Keep in mind, a leg injury can be nearly as devastating as an arm injury to a pitcher. Their drive, balance, and overall mechanics depend on a strong (and healthy) lower body. I don't believe he has been 100% this season as he builds back up. I pursued him where possible this spring, and I have been waiting patiently for the return of Richards circa 1014. I think that return is imminent. He looked a little tentative early on, and his command has been inconsistent, but the last few starts suggest he his putting everything back together.

Rubby De La Rosa (Arizona) – You know me, I always have to sneak one in I have been quietly watching. For this edition, I am going to give the nod to De La Rosa. I have always liked his stuff. He's not going to be an ace, but he can be pretty effective when he throws strikes. He's a groundball pitcher who would benefit from a more reliable infield defense (read: Nick Ahmed in the lineup every day), but he is missing more and more bats as he becomes a little more confident in his secondary pitches. His fastball is still his bread and butter, but there are positive signs that his repertoire is expanding. I like the increasing groundball rate – flyballs can be pretty dangerous in Arizona – and more strikeouts will also help. He was once known for a plus change-up and a return to that would help him against left-handed hitters. It's all about command of his arsenal, and being comfortable using all of his pitches in any count. He's not quite there yet, but I think it's coming so I might take a flyer on him stepping up fairly soon.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The Twins will be welcoming Ervin Santana to their rotation in the next few days after he missed the first half of the season while serving a suspension. Santana is a competent starter and he'll be pitching in a relatively forgiving environment making him worth a possible add if he's available in your league.
• I had to avoid adding too many pitchers from one team in the capsules above, but the Nationals should have another one to consider. Jordan Zimmermann hasn't taken the anticipated step forward this year, but it's not too late. Like a few others, he is flashing signs of getting everything in synch.
• Chris Sale made six starts in June and tossed 44.3 innings. He struck out 75 (double digits in all six) and allowed two or fewer runs in five of the six outings. So, how bad are the White Sox? He netted two wins. Sale is totally dominating but I am a bit concerned he is throwing a lot of pitches.
• I'll be interested to see whereMatt Cainis when he makes his first start of the season. I was looking for a rebound season, but a strained flexor tendon cost him the first three months of the year. His velocity is there, and reports say he is commanding his off-speed pitches. At the least he needs to be monitored.
• The Yankees got Ivan Nova back, and his first two starts have been very solid. He still doesn't miss enough bats to suit me so I am going to stay away. Notably, Adam Warren was sent to the bullpen to make room in the rotation for Nova, but Warren may have been the better bet for fantasy production.
• The Mets are showcasingJon Nieseand the lefty is doing a pretty good job of drawing interest. Even though he hasn't won a start in over a month, he has consistently pitched at least six innings while keeping the punch-less Mets in the games. Look for him to change uniforms soon.

Revisiting Toronto and checking in on their closer situation, it appears Roberto Osuna will be the first option, but they may not actually name him the closer in an effort to minimize pressure on the young fireballer. Right now, Steve Delabar is the backup, but Aaron Sanchez is expected to move to the bullpen and he could quickly become a big part of the closing puzzle. The Yankees' Andrew Miller is throwing again, and I would guess he will step back into the primary closer's role when he returns. Dellin Betances will still be an option, but they love his flexibility. Brad Ziegler continues to be the man in the Arizona bullpen, and he's not really giving them many reasons to change, but Enrique Burgos is now back and he profiles as a possible closer if he throws a few more strikes. Earlier this week the Cubs used Hector Rondon in the seventh, then Pedro Strop in the eighth, and Jason Motte in the ninth (he got the save).This suggests Rafael Soriano is still a serious consideration. Barring a trade the A's appear to be leaning more and more heavily on Tyler Clippard who has been used for four and five out saves pretty often. If that continues, fatigue could become a factor. John Axford is away from the Rockies for personal reasons leaving LaTroy Hawkins as the most likely closer. Axford will probably resume closing when he returns.