On Target: Fishing For Parker

On Target: Fishing For Parker

This article is part of our On Target series.

To illustrate the variance inherent in fantasy football, I'm going to tell you all a story about two of my fantasy teams (feel free to skip ahead to the stats as all stories about someone else's fantasy team are literally the worst). In one league, I drafted Mike Evans in the second round; that team is 0-5. In another league, I took DeAndre Hopkins in the second round. That team is 5-0. I generally had a common core of players I liked for seasonal leagues in 2015 (Sam Bradford, Rob Gronkowski, David Johnson, Jordan Matthews were the biggest ones) but missing on a pick of that caliber can determine your entire season. Of course I loved Hopkins but the same could be said of Evans. The lesson I'm trying to impart is twofold: first, fantasy football is a cruel mistress full of variance and some unexplainable disappointments. Second, there's tremendous value in acting quickly in fantasy sports. I could have gotten sticker price for Evans in a trade after Week one or alternatively, could have bought low on him in some leagues after Week 3. Instead, I stood pat and am dealing with the consequences.

On to the data! Here are your target leaders after Week 5:

PLAYERTARGETSRECYDSTDSPTs/TARGET
Larry Fitzgerald443549061.93
Rob Gronkowski332037541.86
Gary Barnidge322437431.73
Tyler Eifert362431251.70
Allen Hurns3627430
To illustrate the variance inherent in fantasy football, I'm going to tell you all a story about two of my fantasy teams (feel free to skip ahead to the stats as all stories about someone else's fantasy team are literally the worst). In one league, I drafted Mike Evans in the second round; that team is 0-5. In another league, I took DeAndre Hopkins in the second round. That team is 5-0. I generally had a common core of players I liked for seasonal leagues in 2015 (Sam Bradford, Rob Gronkowski, David Johnson, Jordan Matthews were the biggest ones) but missing on a pick of that caliber can determine your entire season. Of course I loved Hopkins but the same could be said of Evans. The lesson I'm trying to impart is twofold: first, fantasy football is a cruel mistress full of variance and some unexplainable disappointments. Second, there's tremendous value in acting quickly in fantasy sports. I could have gotten sticker price for Evans in a trade after Week one or alternatively, could have bought low on him in some leagues after Week 3. Instead, I stood pat and am dealing with the consequences.

On to the data! Here are your target leaders after Week 5:

PLAYERTARGETSRECYDSTDSPTs/TARGET
Larry Fitzgerald443549061.93
Rob Gronkowski332037541.86
Gary Barnidge322437431.73
Tyler Eifert362431251.70
Allen Hurns362743031.69
Travis Benjamin392241141.67
A.J. Green423045931.52
John Brown312330121.36
Allen Robinson482240241.34
Willie Snead332238111.34
Brandon Marshall443040031.32
Travis Kelce342432821.32
Randall Cobb422831241.31
Antonio Brown503752321.29
Julio Jones624354541.27
Julian Edelman473439931.23
Donte Moncrief382427831.21
Charles Clay322226221.19
Odell Beckham523142831.17
Amari Cooper442838621.15
Leonard Hankerson331825421.13
Vincent Jackson382030621.12
Keenan Allen563944431.11
Greg Olsen341724321.07
Jason Witten373027121.06
Steve Smith472937321.05
Jeremy Maclin523648311.04
Terrance Williams331422321.04
DeAndre Hopkins744257931.03
Emmanuel Sanders533441821.02
Jordan Reed342427810.99
Dion Lewis302323810.99
Theo Riddick363022820.97
Brandin Cooks402532210.96
Percy Harvin301921810.93
Anquan Boldin382323120.92
Larry Donnell302115420.91
Pierre Garcon432726720.90
Jordan Matthews453032510.86
Martellus Bennett422823320.84
Demaryius Thomas583841610.82
Jamaal Charles302117710.79
Michael Crabtree482731810.79
Devonta Freeman312424000.77
T.Y. Hilton502738200.76
Cecil Shorts392223610.76
Calvin Johnson523232210.73
Jarvis Landry472827000.57
Golden Tate472626400.56
Mike Evans331317400.53

The leaders in efficiency are almost exactly who you would expect. Fitzgerald (who we talked about last week), a trio of tight ends who are playing very well (Gronkowski, Eifert and yes, even Gary Barnidge) and touchdown machines A.J. Green, Allen Hurns and Julio Jones. In general, this is a guideline to who might be playing over their head (Hurns and Barnidge) and at the bottom, who has massive room to improve (Evans and Demaryius Thomas come to mind).

The three players I want to discuss this week are Dwayne Harris, Willie Snead and DeVante Parker.

Dwayne Harris has basically become the second-best wide receiver in a Giants offense that is running more plays per game than ever before (seventh-most in the NFL at 328 plays in five games) and Harris is already very involved in the passing game, receiving six and eight targets in two games since joining the team. He'll never be a deep threat or a primary red zone weapon, especially when sharing the field with Odell Beckham. However, Beckham is currently suffering through a hamstring injury and Rueben Randle is banged up as well. I'm expecting ODB to play in Monday Night's game but not be at 100 percent. With a vacuum existing in the Giants passing game due to injury, I think Harris solidifies himself for the next few weeks as an 8-12 target guy and he is someone who is free in both daily fantasy and on your waiver wire. In several deep leagues, I am starting Harris this week and he'll be a feature of my DFS lineups where he is close to minimum salary on PPR sites.

This week's column would not be complete without an examination of Willie Snead. He was a priority DFS play last week and should now be added as at least a WR3 in all formats. The Saints are a really bad team and that is going to cause them to trail in most of their games this year. Drew Brees' declining efficiency and the lack of overall talent in the Saints offense is going to be a boon for Snead's value as it will direct more targets his way. Snead is coming off a career-high 11 targets against the Eagles and has had at least six targets in every game he has played starter's snaps this season. Snead is not a super-dynamic athlete but dominated while at Ball State in college and I think his current level of production is pretty sustainable in terms of opportunity. Snead seems to be a better fit with the current version of Drew Brees than Brandin Cooks is and I wouldn't be surprised if at the end of the year, Snead ends up with more targets than Cooks does.

Finally, I think now is the time to be adding DeVante Parker. Parker got injured in the offseason, which limited his ability to become integrated in Joe Philbin's offense. Well, Philbin got fired over the Dolphins' bye week and with new head coach Dan Campbell is going to come some changes. One of those expected changes, I would think, will be giving Parker a starting role in a passing offense that just hasn't been good. The most sensible outcome is that Parker becomes a starting wide receiver as a flanker or X, while Rishard Matthews and Jarvis Landry maintain their current roles. Parker was a stud at Louisville and checked all of the boxes at the NFL combine. While I don't have a ton of faith in Ryan Tannehill (certainly less faith than I did at the beginning of the season), I do think this offense has enough to talent to be top half of the league and Parker could easily lead them in receiving fantasy points the rest of the way with a full-time role. He should be free in most leagues and could provide significant upside.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Davis Mattek
Davis Mattek has played DFS for a living for over a year and began in the fantasy sports industry in 2012. He is a member of the FSTA and FSWA.
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