NFL Barometer: Mariota Headed for Greatness

RISING

Marcus Mariota, QB, TEN

Going into Sunday's game against Jacksonville, the list of quarterbacks whose rookie seasons matched Mariota's was already small, and the list obviously dwindled further as Mariota threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns while running for 112 yards and another score. He has now thrown 19 touchdowns compared to nine interceptions in his first 10 games, completing 63.4 percent of his passes and averaging 7.7 yards per attempt. His breakout effort as a runner raised his rushing totals to 249 yards (8.0 YPC) and two touchdowns on the ground, too. Hopefully the Titans secure some receiver talent to add to Dorial Green-Beckham and Delanie Walker in the offseason, because Mariota looks like he can be great.

Lamar Miller, RB, MIA

The firing of previous offensive coordinator Bill Lazor appeared to help Miller, at least for one week. Playing against Baltimore, one of the league's top run defenses, Miller bounced back from a two-yard, five-carry absurdity against the Jets the previous week to burn the Ravens for 113 yards on 20 carries. With a steady rushing average around 5.0 YPC going back 28 games, along with 77 receptions in that span, there's no obvious reason why Miller can't be one of the very best fantasy backs with the right workload. Sunday's 20-carry outing in a close contest provides a fleeting hope that the Dolphins might show a more solid commitment to Miller going forward.

Blake Bortles, QB, JAC

It took a few wacky turnovers to precipitate it, but Bortles had an enormous game against the Titans, throwing for 322 yards (8.9 YPA) and five touchdowns. The second-year player now has 3,274 yards, 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in just 12 games, making it hard not to be excited about his future prospects. A weak completion percentage (57.7) and below-average YPA (7.0) show where Bortles needs to improve, but his ability to find the end zone so often at his age is very encouraging. He's in an offense with plenty of young, talented supporting players and further buoys his fantasy value by picking up nice chunks on the ground, with 663 rushing yards (7.0 YPC) in his first 26 games. He's clearly a QB1.

Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, TEN

A dropped pass that turned into an interception was certainly one blemish, but Green-Beckham otherwise made a convincing display of upside against the Jaguars, catching his other five targets for 119 yards and a touchdown. The 6-foot-5, 237-pound rookie showed off his physicality on the 47-yard touchdown, lumbering through attempted tacklers after making the downfield catch. Consistency has been a problem, as he had just four catches on his previous 13 targets, but Mariota's ascendance grants an opportunity for the Tennessee wide receivers that Green-Beckham is best suited to claim.

FALLING

DeMarco Murray, RB, PHI

It would have been greedy to expect Murray to match his Dallas production upon arriving in Philadelphia, but it's still remarkable how disappointing he has been since signing a five-year, $40 million with the Eagles this offseason. The disappointment obviously reached a new height Sunday, as Murray received just eight totes (for 24 yards) while teammates Darren Sproles (15) and Kenjon Barner (nine) both exceeded Murray's carry count. Chip Kelly said the workload split was gameplan-specific rather than indicative of a demotion for Murray, but it's still almost unthinkable that there was even a single game in which Murray saw fewer carries than Barner and about half as many as Sproles. Murray has been a memorable bust in Philadelphia, running for 569 yards (3.5 YPC) and four touchdowns in 11 games, albeit with 39 receptions for 295 yards and another touchdown.

Giovani Bernard, RB, CIN

This blurb could have been a 'rising' entry for Jeremy Hill instead, but anyone who's owned Hill this year would probably be the first to discourage such optimism. No, this looks like one of those situations in which the players inflict inconsistency on the other, as opposed to a situation in which one or both have consistent value. Hill has seemingly righted the ship over the last three weeks, running for 229 yards and three touchdowns on 51 carries (4.5 YPC), yet the fact that Bernard has 157 touches in 12 games, including 32 touches in the last three, forecasts the potential for Hill to disappear for stretches at a time. Bernard, meanwhile, seems to have the shorter end of the straw at the moment, as his 21 carries in the last three weeks yielded just 60 yards, though his 11 catches for 188 yards over that span dulled the pain.

T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief, WR, IND

Both receivers should be strong fantasy options whenever Andrew Luck (kidney) returns to form, but in the meantime it looks like injuries at the quarterback position will make it hard for Hilton or Moncrief to produce. Replacement starter Matt Hasselbeck suffered neck and rib injuries against the Steelers on Sunday, and now Indianapolis is left with the prospect of starting either an injured 40-year-old backup or third-string quarterback Charlie Whitehurst. Both scenarios are unappealing, especially after Hasselbeck threw for 169 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in a 45-10 blowout loss to the Steelers on Sunday.

Alfred Morris, RB, WAS

Just when it looked like he might have had some momentum, running 23 times for 78 yards against the Giants in Week 12, Morris was barely visible in Washington's gross game against Dallas on Monday, finishing with just six carries for 12 yards while rookie Matt Jones ran 18 times for 49 yards. Morris has failed to score a touchdown in 2015, and he's lost 116 carries to a fumble-prone rookie averaging 3.4 yards per carry. The Washington coaches clearly don't think too highly of Morris, and this isn't an offense in which two fantasy-relevant runners can exist – Washington's average of 94.2 rushing yards per game ranks 26th in the league.