The Z Files: Rest-of-Season Risers, Pitching Edition

In the last of a four-part series, we'll look at some starting pitchers whose rest-of-season projection is better than my original outlook. Hopefully, you've read the previously three installments, but for those unfamiliar with the methodology, he's a brief review.

Each week, I update my rest-of-season (ROS) projection, using my initial (INI) baseline then altering it based on current skill levels, team context and number of expected starts. What follows is 15 pitchers with the highest increased expected earnings, with a brief discussion explaining the reason for the increased earnings projections. The numbers are for 15-team mixed league and are listed in order of lowest ROS projected earnings to highest.

JC Ramirez, Los Angeles Angels (ROS $1, INI $-7): The majority of Ramirez' bump is due to his entering the rotation. Coming into the season, he was pegged as a set-up man. Normally, a pitcher's skills decline around 17 percent when moved from the bullpen to a starter, but Ramirez has improved his strikeout rate a tick while dropping walks. His ERA is a bit inflated due to a high home run rate, which on paper should regress. Even with the added whiffs, Ramirez is still far from dominant, so he's best used as a streamer, especially at home when protected by Angels Stadium.

Zack Godley, Arizona Diamondbacks (ROS $2, INI $-11): As expected, Godley's recent demotion was temporary as he'll be rejoining the Diamondbacks rotation this week, with an excellent opportunity to make it permanent. There will obviously be a correction to his current 2.09 ERA, but his skills portend to something under 4.00, which is below average in today's landscape. As an extreme groundball pitcher, Godley doesn't project to benefit that much after the humidor is installed in Chase Field (scheduled to be ready this month). Godley's strikeout rate is below league average, tempering his fantasy potential, but good control and low homers allowed will keep ratios in check.

Trevor Cahill, San Diego Padres (ROS $2, INI $-11): This represents a leap of faith Cahill makes it back sometime in late June or early July and picks up where he left off before hitting the disabled list with shoulder woes. The primary change is a belief his elevated strikeout rate is for real. This was teased last season, but coming into 2017, it couldn't be taken for granted. Before getting hurt, Cahill upped his punchouts even more, fully supported by a spike in swinging strike rate. Looking at data on Fangraphs, the driver appears to be increased usage of his curve ball, and for good reason as it's been a plus pitch for him. With solid pitching so hard to acquire, Cahill shouldn't cost much and could be available. Plus, he's a great target for keeper leagues since his 2017 contract is likely minimal.

Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals (ROS $4, INI $-2): Projections are part science, part art. Baselining skills is the science. Some of playing time expectation is science, but some is art. Coming into the campaign, I tabbed Wacha as a reliever. My reading of the tea leaves was the Cardinals would decide using him out of the bullpen would be better for his balky shoulder. I was wrong. That said, it's fair to question this optimistic outlook for a hurler currently sporting a 4.67 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Wacha's 8.8 K/9 is well above average. His 3.5 BB/9 is troublesome, but in part due to working from the stretch more because of a high batting average on balls in play (BABIP). In short, Wacha's exhibited better control throughout his career. The expectation is a drop in BABIP combined with fewer walks lowers his WHIP and ERA.

Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals (ROS $5, INI $-1): Let's start with the increased in projected innings. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Lynn's initial innings projection was tempered. It still is, but not to the same degree, so the percentage of expected innings relative to the maximum possible has increased. Next, while his current 2.08 ERA is owed a correction, Lynn is showing no ill effects from the long layoff. Prior to the surgery, he was an SP4. Considering the innings are still a concern, his current $5 expectation is in line with an SP5.

Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee Brewers (ROS $6, INI $-7): Heading into 2016, many though Nelson was one skill away from becoming a low-end fantasy asset, that being improved control. Unfortunately, not only did that fail to manifest, his walks rose considerably. Entering 2017, Nelson fell completely off the mixed league radar, perhaps making it on some rosters as a reserve flier. Well, something's clicked for the 28-year-old righty as he's doing now what many hoped he'd do last year, namely sporting a reduced walk rate. Not only that, he's missing more bats, upping his strikeout rate to an impressive hitter an inning. For a detailed look at the new Nelson, check out this piece, courtesy of Fangraph's Jeff Sullivan. The bottom line is my $6 ROS projection could prove to be conservative.

Jason Vargas, Kansas City Royals (ROS $7, INI $-7): I'm tapping out; it's time to admit Vargas is pretty good. He's not 2.18 ERA good, but he's not the gas can envisioned upon hearing or seeing his name in previous seasons. Vargas' 7.1 K/9 isn't anything special, though his 2.1 BB/9 is excellent. What makes Vargas good is his ability to limit homers. A lot has been made of the record pace of long balls. While runs are also up, the increase is disproportionate. That is, the number of runs scored via the home run is way up. Therefore, it stands to reason pitchers keeping the ball in the yard will see a drop in ERA since fewer runs are being manufactured, so to speak. Vargas' low homer total is a result of a low home run per fly ball rate. Some of that is Kauffman Stadium, but not all. Expect a higher home run rate going forward, but with a landing point resulting in an ERA still well below average.

Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks (ROS $9, INI $-1): It's always nice when a huge shift in skills/performance is supported by a tangible change. Over his last four starts, spanning 30 1/3 innings, Ray has allowed just one run (on a homer), fanning 36 with just five free passes. Not so coincidentally, the southpaw markedly sped up his delivery. This was illustrated via side-by-side clips of his delivery on a recent Diamondbacks broadcast. This isn't the first time Ray has purposely become less deliberate on the mound. Hopefully he can maintain the better-working mechanics. All this said, keeping up this current pace obviously isn't reasonable. However, it's possible we're looking at a top 30 starting pitcher, something I rebuked earlier this season.

Luis Severino, New York Yankees (ROS $9, INI $1): Speaking of possible top 30 starters, Severino is demonstrating why the Yankees were so obstinate when his name came up in trade talks. The 23-year-old righty is putting it all together, carrying a double-digit strikeout rate with great control and a groundball tilt. I'm of the mind inducing grounders isn't necessarily a desirable skill, since fewer flyballs land safely (assuming they stay in the yard) than groundballs find holes. In the right park, a flyball pitcher with good control profiles better than a worm-burning specialist. However, Yankee Stadium is homer-friendly, so the ability to minimize long balls plays even more in Severino's favor. His underlying metrics support his peripherals, meaning projectible durability is all that separates Severino from becoming an ace.

Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers (ROS $10, INI $-3): Like Wacha, Wood's initial role was earmarked as a reliever. Injuries cleared a path to the Dodgers rotation and Wood took advantage, until he got hurt. The deceptive lefty is slated to return this weekend. Wood has always been able to miss bats, but so far he's taken that to another level. Better yet, he's done it with much better control and an extreme groundball lean. The best part is everything is corroborated by underlying metrics. Especially with his herky-jerky motion, health will always be a concern, but a 2.39 xFIP says even when Wood's 0.2 HR/FB regresses, what's left is a stud.

Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants (ROS $13, INI $5): If I told you that on June 8, an NL West pitcher checks in with a 10.6 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9, you'd likely respond Clayton Kershaw's back must be OK. To date, Kershaw's peripherals are 10.4 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9. The margin is razor thin, but Samardzija bests Kershaw in both. A .340 BABIP and 67 percent left-on-base rate has bloated Shark's 4.29 ERA well above his 2.90 FIP and 2.74 xFIP. The correction is already well underway as Samardzija's ERA on May 9 was 5.44. Expect it to continue to drop the next three-plus months.

Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks (ROS $17, INI $11): Most expected Greinke to rebound from last season's debacle, but no one planned on a career-best strikeout rate, at least so far. Perusing his arsenal, Greinke is throwing more sliders and fewer changeups, which makes sense since the slider has been his most effective offering. Perhaps this stems from Jeff Mathis and not Welington Castillo calling most of his games, not to mention they're on opposite ends of the pitch-framing spectrum.

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals (ROS $21, INI $14): This one's simple. While Strasburg isn't in the clear with respect to health, his projected starts to maximum number of possible starts is increasing. That is, 32 or 33 starts is considered the maximum for a season. I tabbed him for 26. Currently, the max remaining would be 21. In my latest update, I gave Strasburg 19. In addition, the expected earnings of all the studs is up a buck or two based on the lower than expected replacement level for pitchers.

Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros (ROS $24, INI $10): The $14 difference between initial and current projected earnings is one of the biggest here. Obviously, I was not high on Keuchel in the spring. Obviously, I was wrong… very wrong. He's still not a top-end SP1 due to a relaxed strikeout rate, but even after his current 1.67 ERA regresses, the lefty still registers elite ratios, especially in today's environment.

Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox (ROS $29, INI $21): We'll close out this discussion, and the series, with another obvious one. Sale decided Crash Davis was wrong; strikeouts are neither boring nor fascist.