Oak's Corner: 'Bringer of Rain' in a Drought

The Week That Was

• Tim Anderson was a polarizing player in drafts with some people seeing a possible power/speed breakout player with others citing his brutal K:BB ratio in 2016 as the reason he was overdrafted. Through the first four months of the season, the doubters are winning this one, as he's hitting only .239 with 11 homers and six stolen bases. The six swipes are particularly disappointing, as Anderson showed an extreme stolen base upside in the minors with a 49-steal season in 2105. He continues to struggle with strikeout and walk rates similar to 2016 and has an incredibly poor K:BB ratio of 113:10.

  The lack of walks have destroyed Anderson's OBP as it currently sits at .262, and he has hurt the White Sox even more than he has hurt fantasy teams. Anderson has raised his fly ball rate, but it still remains low at 30 percent, and his hard hit rate has fallen more than two percent to 30 percent. He showed some promise in 2016 with a .283 batting average, but that mark came with a .375 BABIP, which he hasn't been able to repeat this season. I ended up with Anderson in one 12-team league, as I took a chance since he slipped well past his ADP, but I dropped him more than a month ago and haven't regretted it. He has consistent playing time, which probably keeps him useable as a middle infielder in deeper leagues, but that OBP just kills his runs and stolen bases, and he isn't someone I want right now or in drafts next year.

• Josh Donaldson has been a fantasy monster in his two seasons in Toronto, averaging 39 homers, 122 runs and 111 RBI since. With an ADP of 12.7 this March, Donaldson is a massive disappointment, mostly due to the month and a half he spent on the DL with the calf injury. That same injury caused The Bringer of Rain to miss a few weeks of spring training, and he has struggled to find any sort of rhythm. While he has been on the field, Donaldson hasn't been good with a .254 average and only 15 homers, but he does appear to be finally warming up. After a July where he hit only .216 with three homers in 25 games, so far in August he's hitting .348 with four homers in only eight games.

  The most concerning aspect of Donaldson's season to date is the rise in his strikeout rate. After Donaldson had carried about an 18 percent K rate in his first two years in Toronto, he is at a 23.5 percent rate this season, easily the highest of any full season he has played the majors. He has bumped up the walk rate to a strong 16.6 percent, but the increased strikeouts have been a big factor in his slipping batting average. The K's were especially a problem in July when he fanned in 29 percent of his plate appearances. In addition to the strikeout issues, Donaldson also has seen his hard hit rate drop to 35.8 percent, the lowest of his three years with the Jays. It's possible that Donaldson was just rusty with little spring training and a long stint on the DL, but even with his recent hot streak there are some real issues in his profile so far this year. If someone wanted to offer full value off his recent success, I'd move him for the final two months and look to get back on board in 2018.

• As the age of 35, Yadier Molina has experience a power surge in his 14th season in St. Louis. After banging out a career-high 22 homers in 2012, Molina has not topped 12 homers since and hasn't even reached double digits in his past three campaigns. Through only 98 games in 2017, Molina has already smoked 14 home runs while driving in 54 runs to go with a .282 batting average. Molina has even managed to toss in a sneaky seven stolen bases, which is just found money at the catcher position.

  Molina appears to have changed his approach like many others we have discussed this season who have hit more fly balls in an attempt to increase power despite that change altering their strikeout rates. Molina has had a fantastic contact rate throughout his entire career and has a career K rate of only 9.8 percent but has a career high 14.8 percent mark this season. However, with those strikeouts has come a 35.1 percent fly ball that's near the highest of his career and a hard hit rate that is the best of his career at 36.3 percent. It's pretty evident that Molina has sold out a bit for power this year, but the best part of the increased power is that he has kept the batting average strong. Molina has quietly been one of the better fantasy catchers this year, especially considering his NFBC ADP was 192.

• Eduardo Nunez had four homers in 302 at bats for the Giants this year, but did manage to steal 18 bases before he was dealt to Boston in late July. Since that trade, Nunez has been a complete beast for the Red Sox, smoking four homers already (to match his Giants total) while hitting .420 over 50 at-bats. Nunez' hot streak started earlier this summer as he has been quietly raking since the start of June. Over his last 159 at-bats, Nunez is hitting a sparkling .377 with a massive .998 OPS. Despite the recent power surge with Boston, Nunez' value likely isn't with his power as he never topped a 30 percent hard hit rate in any season, and his fly ball rate so far this year sits under 30 percent. However, getting out of AT&T and the putrid Giants lineup should do wonders for his counting stats and he has continued to run in Boston with three steals already in his first 11 games.
  

• Asher Wojciechowski: Woj (I'm not spelling his name again!) has had a nice little breakout season so far in 2017. In 30.2 Triple-A innings, he posted a 2.05 ERA while striking out 35 batters in only 30.2 innings. Since getting called back to the majors for the second time in early July, Woj has been especially strong, compiling a 1.93 ERA over 23.1 innings, including his last two appearances as a starter. Since being placed into the rotation, he has earned two wins in two starts allowing one earned run to the Cardinals and three earned runs to the Padres. Most importantly, the strikeouts have carried over as a starter as he has struck out 11 guys in 10.2 innings in those two outings. He hasn't been a big strikeout pitcher in the minors prior to this year, but he has maintained the K's over 75.1 combined 2017 innings.

  The issue with Woj is the home runs as he is an extreme fly ball pitcher throwing in a yard in Cincinnati that can be homer friendly, especially in the summer. He has a minuscule 28 percent ground ball rate so far this season in MLB and has allowed 1.81 homers per nine innings. He has two starts this week, both are on the road, however, one of the starts is against the Cubs in Wrigley (the other is in Atlanta). If you need strikeouts and have nice ratios, I think he is worth a small bid in the hope that he continues to rack up the K's, but I am worried about the long balls, especially versus the Cubs. Luckily, the Cubs are much tougher against lefties than righties as they only have a team OPS of .743 against righties this year which puts them in bottom ten of MLB. The Braves rank 17th in team OPS vs. righties so the matchups on paper are actually pretty decent and there is no doubt that he has been throwing well. I am definitely bidding in 15-teamers, but not sure I can stomach him in 12-teamers with the homer-itis unless I have a team with strong ratios that really needs to make up ground in K's.

• Ty Blach: Blach has run off three starts in a row in which he threw seven innings or more and allowed two runs each time. In addition, he has now allowed three runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts while throwing six or more innings in each one. After a solid April, Blach struggled in May and June, but since July 1st, Blach has a strong 3.21 ERA. The issue with Blach, as it has been all year, is the lack of strikeouts; despite pitching deep into games, especially recently, he has punched out more than five batters only once all year and hasn't topped seven in any start. He has been able to avoid walks with a 1.90 BB/9 rate, but his strikeout rate is way below average at only 4.43 K/9. So while he has been helpful for the ratios recently, the margin of error is paper thin in fantasy leagues where you know you aren't getting one of the four roto categories off the bat and with the Giants struggling to score runs all year, wins will also be tough to come by. With two starts this week and good matchups, at Miami and home Philly, Blach likely will be a popular add, especially in deeper leagues where the starting pitching on the waiver wire is thinner than ever. I don't like the lack of strikeouts, but I also have a feeling that he's due to give it up in a big way. I don't often play feelings, but with the lack of strikeouts being a simple fact in Blach's profile, I'm not risking adding him this week, even with two starts.

• Brent Honeywell: There were rumblings about the Rays calling up Honeywell, their best pitching prospect, when Alex Cobb went down with an injury, but the latest word is that Cobb is only going to miss the minimum 10 days. However, the Rays could choose to slide in Honeywell for Jake Odorizzi who took a liner off his leg last start or for Austin Pruitt who has an ERA over 5.00 (but has pitched well in his last two starts) or for the struggling Blake Snell. Point is, there are plenty of spots he could slide into, and with the Rays tied for the second wild card, one would think they will have to deploy Honeywell at some point down the stretch, as he's clearly one of their best five options.

  Honeywell dominated Single-A and Double-A in 2016 and was quickly promoted to Triple-A this season after two Double-A starts. While his 3.74 ERA in 106 Triple-A innings so far doesn't jump off the page, his .380 BABIP has hurt his ERA and his FIP is a very nice 2.83. He also has maintained an excellent strikeout since the promotion to Triple-A, currently at 11.46 K/9. If you can bid on Honeywell in your league, do it now before the rumblings get stronger, and if you play in an NFBC league where you need to wait until his call-up, make sure to stow away a bit of FAAB money, as he could be a piece who makes four to five starts down the stretch and really helps a pitching starved team, especially in September when it gets hard to field a full and strong rotation with all the injuries, tweaks and skipped starts.
  

The Bud Norris Experience took a rocky ride the last two weeks as he gave up two walk-off grand slams and has now blown two leads in the eighth inning, including Thursday night against the Mariners. After a day off on Monday, Norris was passed over for a save opportunity on Tuesday, but manager Mike Scioscia simply called it a "day of rest." Interestingly, the save opportunity didn't go to the presumed closer-in-waiting Cam Bedrosian, but rookie Kenyan Middleton. On Wednesday, with a four run lead, the Angels deployed Middleton in the eighth inning, and then Blake Parker finished the game with a clean ninth inning. Of course, then Scioscia made the situation even murkier on Thursday by throwing Parker in the seventh inning, and Bedrosian in the ninth as he converted the save.

Middleton was called up in May, and while he does have some nice strikeout numbers with 39 punch outs in 37 innings, his walks are a bit high at 3.41 BB/9 and he has allowed seven homers, which has contributed heavily to his 4.14 ERA. He has surrendered a 35.6 percent hard hit rate with a 45.2 percent fly ball rate so the homers aren't likely to go away anytime soon. A closer who gives up walks and homers isn't a guy I want, so I will be passing on any sort of speculative bid on Middleton.

On the other hand, Blake Parker has had a very nice season in Anaheim with a 2.52 ERA in 50 innings. He has strong K:BB numbers as he has struck out 63 batters while only walking 14. His swinging strike of 14 percent is also impressive and supports the high strikeout numbers. Parker has allowed a 34.2 percent hard hit rate, which is a bit higher than I'd like, but I love the ground ball rate at 51.3 percent. A lot of grounders plus dominant K's is what I love in a closer profile.

Bedrosian is the closer of the future by almost all accounts, and while he has had a few hiccups this year and had a nearly two-month stint on the DL, he has been good in his 25 innings with a K:BB ratio of 33:8. His ERA is a touch bloated for a reliever at 3.96, but his strand rate is quite low at 63.8 percent, and his FIP of 2.50 shows that he has likely pitched better than his bottom line. As much as I would love to see Parker get a chance to close down the stretch, Bedrosian is the smart guy to add if he's been dropped in your league with maybe a small speculative play on Parker in a deeper league.

Series of the Weekend

Red Sox at Yankees. I hate to go with the obvious chalk pick here, but this is just a huge series this weekend. The Red Sox have found their game again and come into this series with eight straight wins and a four-game lead over the Yankees. We are at the point of the season where a series like this can determine the course of the division as a Red Sox sweep would give them a comfortable 7.5 game lead, but a Yankees sweep could cut the lead to 1.5, and it becomes a wide open race again. The Yankees would be best served to win two out of three to at least close the gap a bit, especially with the games in their home ballpark.

The struggles of Aaron Judge since the All Star Break have had a big impact on the Yankees offense as a whole as they rank only 23rd in runs since the break. Further, their team OPS is only 19th in that span and they only rank 15th in homers. In 84 at-bats since the All Star Game, Judge is hitting only .167 with a .675 OPS and has been having a ton of issues with strikeouts with 38 of them in those 84 at bats. With a strikeout Thursday night, he has now struck out at least once in a franchise record 27 consecutive games, and while the majority of his season speaks for itself, this stretch does bring back some memories of his 2016 campaign where he struck out in 44 percent of his plate appearances.

The Red Sox will send three lefties to the mound in the series capping it off on Sunday Night Baseball with Chris Sale. Sale has been everything the Red Sox paid for and more, posting a 2.57 ERA so far in 161.1 innings. He has ramped up his game this season with the highest strikeout rate of his career at 12.77 K/9 and he has an incredible 15 starts with double-digit strikeouts. On the flip side, the Yankees will throw their ace on Saturday and to the surprise of many, especially those who drafted him last year, that guy is Luis Severino. After a great debut in 2015 where he had an ERA under 3.00, Severino struggled in 2016 and was sent back to Triple-A. He has been a godsend for the Yankees in 2017, sporting a 2.91 ERA in 139.1 innings while striking out 10.46 batters per nine. He has also bumped up his ground ball rate over 50 percent for the first time and has ramped up his velocity to 97.3 mph, up two miles per hour from his 2015 season. Masahiro Tanaka has been up and down most of the year (he has been much better lately) and Severino has filled the role of ace in his stead quite admirably.

The Yankees-Red Sox series are always fun, even if the games take four hours each, but with the stakes raised at the point of the season and the way the standings look at the moment, this should be a raucous one in the Bronx all weekend.