ADP Trends: Quarterback

The worst nightmare for any franchise has become a reality for the Minnesota Vikings this week when Teddy Bridgewater, their young franchise signal-caller, suffered a brutal knee injury during his final preseason practice. That leaves veteran backup Shaun Hill, barring trade, as the only option to jump in for Bridgewater week 1. Hill is still going undrafted in most leagues.

Now that the exhibition season is over, let’s examine some other QB competitions and how they affect ADP entering the biggest fantasy draft weekend of the year. The data below comes from NFFC leagues, which are PPR. 

Player Team July ADP Current ADP Diff
Dak Prescott Dal 400.0 322.9 77.1
Case Keenum LA 400.0 348.2 51.8
Robert Griffin III Cle 198.3 185.0 13.3
Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 144.4 131.4 13.0
Josh McCown Cle 352.6 341.8 10.8
Colin Kaepernick SF 240.0 234.1 5.9
Trevor Siemian Den 318.9 313.4 5.5
Carson Wentz Phi 325.6 323.2 2.4
Ben Roethlisberger Pit 72.5 70.6 1.9
Cam Newton Car 39.8 38.6 1.1
Brock Osweiler Hou 142.9 142.6 0.3
Mark Sanchez Den 247.1 247.0 0.1
Kirk Cousins Was 98.0 98.2 -0.2
Tom Brady NE 73.3 73.5 -0.3
Sam Bradford Phi 172.9 173.2 -0.3
Ryan Tannehill Mia 115.0 115.6 -0.6
Philip Rivers SD 91.5 92.1 -0.6
Russell Wilson Sea 57.4 58.3 -1.0
Aaron Rodgers GB 41.6 42.6 -1.0
Blake Bortles Jax 74.0 75.2 -1.2
Eli Manning NYG 82.3 83.5 -1.3
Matt Ryan Atl 113.4 114.6 -1.3
Matthew Stafford Det 97.4 99.3 -1.9
Tyrod Taylor Buf 115.5 117.6 -2.1
Jameis Winston TB 102.4 104.5 -2.1
Jay Cutler Chi 132.6 134.8 -2.2
Andy Dalton Cin 108.5 110.9 -2.4
Carson Palmer Ari 77.1 80.0 -2.8
Marcus Mariota Ten 112.3 115.4 -3.1
Joe Flacco Bal 127.0 130.3 -3.3
Derek Carr Oak 89.6 93.7 -4.1
Andrew Luck Ind 48.3 52.4 -4.1
Drew Brees NO 59.6 64.1 -4.5
Alex Smith KC 134.0 139.9 -5.9
Jared Goff LA 213.0 220.1 -7.1
Blaine Gabbert SF 227.9 235.4 -7.5
Tony Romo Dal 107.1 114.7 -7.6
Jimmy Garoppolo NE 274.9 285.5 -10.6
Paxton Lynch Den 304.6 317.9 -13.3
Teddy Bridgewater Min 153.6 174.6 -21.0
Geno Smith NYJ 298.3 341.5 -43.3

Dak Prescott (+77.1), Tony Romo (-7.6)
Romo’s latest injury stings the Cowboys, but it’s not as catastrophic as Minnesota’s situation with Bridgewater. First of all, Romo getting hurt is almost expected at this point in his career. Cowboys fans were just hoping their star QB would begin the season healthy. The other reason for hope in Dallas is how ridiculously easy Dak Prescott has made his transition look from college to the pros in exhibition games. Romo is expected to join the Cowboys at some point mid-season, but there are already whispers that Prescott could keep the job if he continues to play like the future of the franchise.

Case Keenum (+51.8), Jared Goff (-7.1)
Keenum has seen a huge bump in ADP now that Jeff Fisher has declared him the starter over No. 1 pick Jared Goff. In fact, Goff will begin his career third on teh Rams’ depth chart behind Sean Mannion. It would be a huge upset if Goff doesn’t earn the starting job at some point in 2016, though, and even with Keenum’s rise in fantasy drafts, the veteran is being selected over 100 spots behind the rookie. L.A.’s QB situation is one to avoid in re-draft leagues.

Robert Griffin III (+13.3), Josh McCown (+10.8)
The fantasy community is starting to come around on RG3, who has a surprisingly good receiving cast around him in Cleveland with rookie first rounder Corey Coleman, freakish QB-convert Terrelle Pryor and the conditionally reinstated Josh Gordon. The most pleasant occurrences for Griffin so far have been an injury-free training camp while displaying his signature deep ball that we saw at Baylor. McCown has some helium as well, but when you consider his ADP remains in the 340 overall range, he’s just insurance on Griffin.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (+13.0), Geno Smith (-43.3)
Smith’s stock has fallen off the map entirely since Fitzpatrick signed with the Jets earlier this summer. Fitzpatrick has put up some scrappy fantasy seasons, but Smith’s play doesn’t inspire confidence even in the event Fitz goes down with an injury.

Colin Kaepernick (+5.9), Blaine Gabbert (-7.5)
It seems like 49ers players have shown up in every ADP post I’ve made this summer. I swear it’s not because I reside in San Francisco. It’s just that GM Trent Baalke has put together one of the weirdest rosters in the NFL, also because there should be late-round value with Chip Kelly’s voluminous offense. To make things even more odd in San Francisco, Colin Kaepernick has turned political while somehow seeing an uptick in value — one slot ahead of presumed starter Blaine Gabbert. The duo come in at QB31 and 32, respectively.

Trevor Siemian (+5.5), Mark Sanchez (+0.1), Paxton Lynch (-13.3)
Siemian has been named starting quarterback for the defending Super Bowl champs. That would usually be quite a valuable fantasy asset with returning targets like Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, but faith is dim when it comes to the second-year QB’s ability to put up points. Lynch is the starter of the future in Denver, and while he still looks just a little too raw to take over week 1, he has displayed ample tools. Like fellow rookie first-rounder Jared Goff, it would be an upset if he didn’t start games in 2016. Sanchez hasn’t fallen like one would expect, but that could change if the veteran is cut or traded this weekend.

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