DraftKings PGA: Byron Nelson Picks

DraftKings PGA: Byron Nelson Picks

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA series.

BYRON NELSON

Purse: $7.1M
Winner's Share: $1,278,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Irving, Texas
Course: TPC Four Seasons Resort at Las Colinas
Yardage: 7,166
Par: 70
Defending Champion: Brendon Todd

Tournament Preview

TPC Four Seasons Resort is a shorter par-70 layout that has played host to the Byron Nelson since 2008. Well known for his ball striking, Byron Nelson was one of the game's greats, winning five majors before passing in 2006. This year the tournament features a new spot on the schedule and corresponding bump in field quality because it no longer follows the immediate wake of The Players Championship. Jordan Spieth, Jason Day and Dustin Johnson headline a field that includes 10 of the top 30 in the world rankings. Although heavily dependent on the swirling Texas winds, the likely winning score should fall 11- to 14-under par this week.

Keys to winning at TPC Four Seasons

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Par-4 Scoring
Recent Player Form

Last Decade of Champions

2014 - Brendon Todd
2013 - Sang Moon Bae
2012 - Jason Dufner
2011 - Keegan Bradley
2010 - Jason Day
2009 - Rory Sabbatini
2008 - Adam Scott
2007 - Scott Verplank
2006 - Brett Wetterich
2005 - Ted Purdy

Champion's Profile

Pre-2008 champs are mostly irrelevant since they played a two-course rotation at TPC Four Seasons prior to its major renovations. The post-renovation layout is characterized by large greens with plenty of undulation, requiring precise iron play setup by well-positioned tee shots. The advantage, therefore, goes to solid ball strikers who find themselves in good form entering this week. Four of the last five champions have made the Byron Nelson their first PGA Tour victory. Most interesting is this tournament's ability to serve as a career launching pad for future greats, most notably Jason Day, Keegan Bradley and Jason Dufner. Exceptions like Brendon Todd's incredible short game display do occasionally lead to victory, but as a rule of thumb the ball striker who has an exceptional putting week will win more than 80 percent of the time at TPC Four Seasons.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
(based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

DraftKings Tier 1 Values

Jordan Spieth - $13,300 (Odds: 9/2)
Dustin Johnson - $12,700 (11/1)
Jason Day - $11,200 (16/1)

DraftKings Tier 2 Values

Justin Thomas - $9,200 (Odds: 28/1)
Marc Leishman - $8,800 (33/1)
Charley Hoffman - $8,400 (33/1)
Keegan Bradley - $8,400 (33/1)
Russell Henley - $7,900 (50/1)

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

Brooks Koepka - $7,700 (Odds: 50/1)
Louis Oosthuizen - $7,500 (50/1)
Graham DeLaet - $7,400 (66/1)
George McNeill - $7,100 (66/1)
Hunter Mahan - $7,100 (75/1)

DraftKings Long-Shot Values

Boo Weekley - $7,000 (Odds: 66/1)
Brian Harman - $7,000 (66/1)
Morgan Hoffman - $7,000 (50/1)
Jason Dufner - $6,900 (75/1)
Scott Piercy - $6,600 (80/1)
Adam Hadwin - $6,600 (125/1)
Carlos Ortiz - $6,400 (125/1)
Erik Compton - $6,300 (150/1)

WHO I'M ROLLING WITH THIS WEEK

Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)

Jordan Spieth - $13,300
Brandt Snedeker - $10,000
Jason Dufner - $6,900
Adam Hadwin - $6,600
Scott Piercy - $6,600
Erik Compton - $6,300

Spieth will again be the favorite with plenty of support coming from the gallery, making him a no brainer for the safe lineup. Snedeker came to life with a tie for second last week and should easily make the cut if not contend for a title. Dufner is a horse for the course with a win and runner-up effort the last few years; despite his poor form (and recent divorce) he is too good of a value at $6,900. To round out a solid cash game lineup are Scott Piercy and Erik Compton, both solid ball strikers who made the cut last week at Colonial.

Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)

Jason Day - $11,200
Keegan Bradley - $8,400
Charley Hoffman - $8,400
Louis Oosthuizen - $7,500
Boo Weekley - $7,000
Brian Harman - $7,000

I'm licking my chops more than usual with this starry lineup as the value is so good I ended up $500 short of the $50,000 max budget. I would normally never condone such a strategy, but I could hardly improve this lineup given the available players; a side benefit of this risky tactic is differentiation, as many teams will have a tough time committing to six guys valued a hefty $500 below the salary cap. Day and Bradley head this crew as past champions, while Charley Hoffman enters with arguably the best form of his career. Oosthuizen likely will be avoided because of a neck injury that forced a WD making him a contrarian selection, but make sure you have a plan B if he doesn't play. Weekley and Harman both played solidly last week, which hopefully translates to at least a made cut this week.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Michael Riek plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: mriek25.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Riek
Michael is the 2016 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year winner. He is a former collegiate golfer with a passion for analytics and strategy.
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