This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM
Purse: $7M
Winner's Share: $1.224M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Pebble Beach, Calif.
Courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Club, Monterey Peninsula Country Club's Shore Course
Yardage: 6,828; 6,960; 6,873
Par: 72, 72, 71
Defending Champion: Brandt Snedeker
Tournament Preview
Pebble Beach is one of the most anticipated stops on the PGA Tour, for golfers and fans alike. It's considered one of the top courses in the world, and the TV shots along the mighty Pacific are breathtaking, especially for East Coasters stuck in the throes of winter. Of course, this tournament has a number of variables not common to a regular tour stop. Golfers will play each of the three courses before a cut to 60 and ties after Saturday (Nos. 61-70 will get credit for an MDF and accrue FedEx points). And they play with an amateur partner, at least for the first three days. The courses all play relatively the same, unlike the vast difference in Torrey Pines North and South, and they are among the shortest courses the golfers will see all year. So driving distance is not paramount, but you do need to be in position to approach the smallish greens. Patience also is key, especially with the propensity for 5-hour rounds playing alongside amateurs. So you have to enjoy this format to do well here (check past winners). Presumably, golfers who don't like the format are skipping it. Weather has traditionally had a big impact, but the forecast calls for four days in the 60s with little chance of rain and minimal wind. So the tournament record, set last year in benign conditions by Brandt Snedeker at 22-under 265, could be in play again. The field is unusually strong at the top, with six in the OWGR's top 10 and 12 in the top 25. On the other hand, there are a lot of no-names getting a rare start, dipping all the way to Joe Affrunti and Rob Oppenheim at $5,400.
Key Stats to Winning the AT&T
• Scrambling
• Greens in regulation
• Strokes gained: putting
Past Champions
2015 - Brandt Snedeker
2014 - Jimmy Walker
2013 - Brandt Snedeker
2012 - Phil Mickelson
2011 - D.A. Points
2010 - Dustin Johnson
2009 - Dustin Johnson
2008 - Steve Lowery
2007 - Phil Mickelson
2006 - Arron Oberholser
Champion's Profile
Snedeker has traditionally shined here, winning two of the last three years. In 2015, he was not especially long (48th) or accurate (38th) off the tee, but his short game carried him to a three-stroke win and a record score. Snedeker was first in scrambling, tied for third in greens in regulation and tied for eighth in strokes gained: putting. Big hitters have also done well here, as even a wayward long drive often leaves just a wedge to the green. Of course, if the drive goes too far off-target, the tee ball could find a rocky, watery grave.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Jordan Spieth - $12,300 (Winning Odds: 17%)
Jason Day - $11,800 (11%)
Brandt Snedeker - $11,100 (7%)
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
J.B. Holmes - $9,800 (3%)
Kevin Na - $9,200 (3%)
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Jason Dufner - $8,800 (2%)
Ryan Moore - $8,600 (2%)
Bill Haas - $8,200 (2%)
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Luke Donald - $7,900 (1%)
Will Wilcox - $7,500 (1%)
Aaron Baddeley - $7,400 (1%)
Colt Knost - $7,300 (1%)
Steve Stricker - $7,000 (1%)
Bud Cauley - $6,600 (1%)
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Jordan Spieth - $12,300
Brandt Snedeker - $11,100
Steve Stricker - $7,000
Bud Cauley - $6,600
Michael Thompson - $6,600
Davis Love III - $6,400
Some might say that putting almost half your cap in two players is high risk, but Spieth and Snedeker are too good to pass up. Spieth sniffs the winner's circle virtually every time he tees it up. Snedeker has the perfeect mixture of playing well in recents events and historically at Pebble. Stricker has not had a good start to 2016, but the shorter courses could boost someone who is struggling off the tee but is third on tour in strokes gained:putting. Cauley is T1 in scrambling inside of 10 yards and second in ARG (proximity to the hole). Thompson is tied with Cauley atop that scrambling stat and is 7-for-8 in cuts. Davis Love is a decent play at a bargain price, having made all four cuts this year while being a multiple winner at Pebble, albeit many years ago.
Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Jimmy Walker - $10,700
Kevin Na - $9,200
Luke Donald - $7,900
Will wilcox - $7,500
Aaron Baddeley - $7,400
Colt Knost - $7,300
Walker has not gotten off to his traditionally strong fall-winter start, winless so far. But we'll go out on a bit of a limb citing his strong track record at Pebble. Na is simply one of the most consistent players on tour, not to mention one of the top scramblers. Taking a bit of a flier on Donald, whose best days are far behind him but could do some damage on a short course playing to his strengths. Wilcox already has three top-25s, including a T6 last week at Phoenix. Baddeley is one of the tour's top putters with a couple of strong finishes at Pebble, plus two top-10s already this season. Knost is an accurate driver and a decent putter who's 8-for-8 in cuts in 2015-16.
