Regan's Rumblings: A Look at the 30 Closer Situations

Regan's Rumblings: A Look at the 30 Closer Situations

This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.

This week we'll take a stroll around the league and look at all 30 teams' closer situations. (Stats entering Thursday's games.)

Locked In

Zach Britton (BAL) - Yet another failed starter who found his niche as an elite reliever, Britton notched 37 saves last year after taking over early in the year from Jim Johnson. He averages close to 95 mph with his fastball, and after posting an elite 6.7 GB/FB rate last year, Britton has a meteoric 12.5 mark so far this season. He's also improved his K/9 from 7.3 to 12.5 while maintaining an excellent 2.1 BB/9. Look for Britton in this year's All-Star game. He has no real competition for closer duties as well.

Koji Uehara (BOS) -
At 40, there is some inherent risk here, but Uehara has a 2.00 ERA and 12:1 K:BB through nine innings. Junichi Tazawa has a 1.72 ERA and would presumably be next in line should Uehara get hurt.

Aroldis Chapman (CIN) -
He notched a couple losses recently, but Chapman still has an excellent 14.7 K/9 and his usual 4.1 BB/9. He's also averaging 99.5 mph with his fastball and we have to think his .397 BABIP will come down given his career mark is more than 100 points lower at .292. I don't see any slippage here -- just a bump in the road.

David Robertson (CHW) -
How good has he been? How about these numbers?: 14 innings, one run, nine hits, and a 25:1 K:BB. His

This week we'll take a stroll around the league and look at all 30 teams' closer situations. (Stats entering Thursday's games.)

Locked In

Zach Britton (BAL) - Yet another failed starter who found his niche as an elite reliever, Britton notched 37 saves last year after taking over early in the year from Jim Johnson. He averages close to 95 mph with his fastball, and after posting an elite 6.7 GB/FB rate last year, Britton has a meteoric 12.5 mark so far this season. He's also improved his K/9 from 7.3 to 12.5 while maintaining an excellent 2.1 BB/9. Look for Britton in this year's All-Star game. He has no real competition for closer duties as well.

Koji Uehara (BOS) -
At 40, there is some inherent risk here, but Uehara has a 2.00 ERA and 12:1 K:BB through nine innings. Junichi Tazawa has a 1.72 ERA and would presumably be next in line should Uehara get hurt.

Aroldis Chapman (CIN) -
He notched a couple losses recently, but Chapman still has an excellent 14.7 K/9 and his usual 4.1 BB/9. He's also averaging 99.5 mph with his fastball and we have to think his .397 BABIP will come down given his career mark is more than 100 points lower at .292. I don't see any slippage here -- just a bump in the road.

David Robertson (CHW) -
How good has he been? How about these numbers?: 14 innings, one run, nine hits, and a 25:1 K:BB. His velocity is at its highest since the 2011 season, and those walks and strikeouts equate to these ratios: 16.1 K/9, 0.6 BB/9. The White Sox's play has afforded him just six saves, but his job security is unparalleled.

Joakim Soria (DET) -
Seemingly fully heathy, Soria has been a nice find for fantasy owners given his 11 saves and 1.13 ERA. Warning signs though are there, including a 7.3 K/9 (down from last year's 9.7) and an unsustainable .135 BABIP, but he's showing excellent control (1.7 BB/9) and his fastball is up one full mph over last year. Al Albuquerque and Joba Chamberlain are off to poor starts, so Soria has plenty of job security.

Luke Gregerson (HOU) -
With a fastball that sits in the upper-80s, Gregerson would seem to be best-suited for a setup role, but with a 2.57 ERA this year, he's sat at or below 2.75 in each of the last five years. While Gregerson was out on family leave, Chad Qualls stepped in as temporary closer, leaving Pat Neshek third in line.

Greg Holland (KC) -
Holland has allowed just one run in nine innings, but after posting a 13-plus K/9 in each of the prior two seasons, Holland has just six strikeouts this year to four walks. He's also averaging 94.2 mph with his fastball compared to 95.8 last year and 96-plus the prior two seasons. So, while there's nothing to be too concerned about just yet, this bears watching. Wade Davis would be next in line and should be owned in deeper formats already.

Huston Street (LAA) -
Street has had a handful of hiccups over the last couple weeks, leading his ERA to rise from 0.00 to its current 3.29. His velocity is down a bit and after posting a 2.5 BB/9 or better in each of the previous six seasons, that number sits at 3.3 so far in 2015. It's still relatively early however, so we won't be too concerned. Should the Angels ever need someone else this year, Joe Smith is next in line.

Glen Perkins (MIN) -
With a 1.26 ERA and 13:0 K:BB in 14.1 innings, Perkins is as locked in as ever. A forearm strain limited Perkins last September, but he's been as good as ever this year after dealing with an oblique strain this spring. There are no obvious successors to Perkins, so keep an eye on the Twins' late-inning bullpen usage going forward. J.R. Graham and Blaine Boyer are guys to watch.

Andrew Miller (NYY) -
Miller has opened the year with 15.2 scoreless innings, 13 saves, and the same K/9 he had last year, 14.9. The only blemish on his resume is a 4.6 BB/9, a number that was fairly common for him prior to last year's 2.5. Miller won't maintain a .142 BABIP the rest of the way of course, but it's hoped that he'll show better control to offset as the season progresses. Dellin Betances has also yet to allow a run in his 20 innings, but unless Miller starts to falter, the pecking order is clear.

Jonathan Papelbon (PHI) -
Papelbon's 2016 vesting option remains a potential impediment to any trade, but I still think he has a good chance of being dealt this summer. Through 13.1 innings, Papelbon is carrying a 1.35 ERA and 15:3 K:BB, so he should still have some trade value if he keeps this up. Should a trade occur, Ken Giles and his 0.63 ERA should be next in line, but Giles also has a 5.0 BB/9, so he'll need to drive that down to be the team's closer of the future.

Craig Kimbrel (SD) -
Moving to Petco Park is supposed to help a pitcher, not hurt, but Kimbrel has a 5.68 ERA in his first 12.3 innings. Given though that his velocity remains stable, we won't worry too much. Kimbrel's 3.6 BB/9 is a little higher than we'd like to see in a closer, but it was 3.8 last year when he posted a 1.61 ERA. Expect Kimbrel's strand rate to increase from its very low 60 percent and for his .348 BABIP to trend down. I expect an ERA in the 2.00 range going forward, though Joaquin Benoit awaits should Kimbrel get hurt.

Francisco Rodriguez (MIL) -
It seems like he's been around for decades, but K-Rod is amazingly still just 33. This year he's been great, converting all seven of his save chances with a 1.38 ERA and 16:2 K:BB in 13 innings. The big key has been keeping the ball in the park, as he's allowed just one home run after surrendering a career-high 14 a year ago. Jonathan Broxton will likely need a Rodriguez injury to have fantasy relevance.

Trevor Rosenthal (STL) -
Rosenthal notched four walks in his first 5.2 innings, but just two in his last 10, so all appears to be good considering his 1.15 ERA, 11-for-12 saves conversion, and his 97.1 mph average velocity. He's also improved his BB/9 to 3.5 versus last year's 5.4, and with a 10.9 K/9 that could certainly improve given his velocity, Rosenthal has the look of a top-10 closer.

Santiago Casilla (SF) -
Casilla already has a flukish four wins to go with his eight saves and 1.88 ERA, so he's been a fantasy monster so far. The wins won't continue at this rate of course, but he's locked in over Sergio Romo as Giants' closer.

Drew Storen (WAS) -
Storen has been excellent all year with a 1.29 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 9-for-10 in save chances and a 14:3 K:BB in 14 innings. I do like Jake Barrett as a speculative pickup in deeper leagues given his solid ratios -- 13.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9.

Situations to Monitor

Mark Melancon (PIT) - With a 4.11 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, Melancon hasn't been nearly as good as he was in the previous two years (1.39 and 1.90 ERAs). His 5.3 K/9 is way down from the 8.9 and 9.0 marks from the prior two years and even his 2.4 BB/9 is a big turn in the wrong direction. More alarmingly, Melancon has averaged just 89 mph with his fastball versus 92.8 last year, though we have seen an uptick in recent appearances. Southpaw Tony Watson is clearly next in line, though Jared Hughes should also get a speculative look in deeper leagues. Seth Maness would appear to be next in line.

Jason Grilli (ATL) -
Grilli has surrendered five runs in his last 3.1 innings to take his ERA from 1.29 to its current 5.23. It's tough to argue with a 14.8 K/9 and we have to think his .426 BABIP will come down significantly, but if a change is needed, Jim Johnson awaits.

Hector Rondon (CHC) -
Rondon's 1.36 WHIP gives us pause, as he's walked four batters in his last three innings. His velocity has been consistent at an average of 95.7 mph with his fastball and while it's worse than last year's 2.1, Rondon's 3.2 BB/9 is fine. Should a change be necessary at some point, Pedro Strop appears to have the advantage over Jason Motte.

John Axford (COL) -
Axford could be in line to keep this job all year, as Adam Ottavino is done with Tommy John surgery and 78 year-old LaTroy Hawkins isn't likely closing anytime soon. Axford still is struggling with his control given his 5.4 BB/9, bit he also has a 10.8 K/9 and 1.80 ERA and really no competition for the job unless the Rockies turn back to Rafael Betancourt (4.38 ERA, but a 16:2 K:BB in 12.1 IP).

Jeurys Familia (NYM) -
Perhaps Familia belongs in the upper category given his 1.59 ERA, his perfect 13-for-13 save conversions, and a 20:3 K:BB in 17 innings. I'll leave him here given his lack of track record, but at this point, he's fairly locked in over the likes of Carlos Torres and Alex Torres.

Fernando Rodney (SEA) -
Evil Rodney has surfaced again, as the Mariners' closer has converted 9-of-10 save chances despite a 5.40 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. That said, the majority of the damage was done early in the season when Rodney coughed up six runs in a two-game 1.1 inning stretch. Since then he's allowed just two runs in 10 innings, but there's always a possibility the volatility will lead to his losing his job to perhaps one of my favorite sleepers, Carson Smith (1.23 ERA, 17:4 K:BB in 14.2 innings), because Danny Farquhar has really struggled this year (5.29 ERA, 1.59 WHIP).

Neftali Feliz (TEX) -
Feliz has been proven very hittable this year as evidenced by a 4.40 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. His velocity is solid and his 9.4 K/9 is a nice improvement over last year's 6.0, but he's certainly vulnerable. I like Shawn Tolleson (19:2 K:BB in 14 IP) a bit over Keone Kela should Feliz falter.

On the Hot Seat

Addison Reed (ARI) - With just two saves to go with a 4.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP, Reed has been a colossal fantasy bust so far. Yeah that .423 BABIP won't continue, but neither will his 0.00 HR/9. Reed would have lost his job by now in several other bullpens, but the Diamondbacks just don't have a lot of depth behind him. Brad Ziegler would probably be next in line given his 1.35 ERA, but he also has a 4.1 K/9 and averages a Dickey-like 83.4 mph with his fastball. Basically, this is a mess. Perhaps a guy like Oliver Perez or even Randall Delgado gets in the mix for saves in Arizona.

Yimi Garcia (LAD) -
Garcia hasn't been given the "closer" tag, but with Kenley Jansen (foot) still out, he's the favorite going forward. Garcia blew his last save chance, but he still has a 1.80 ERA and 14.4 K/9, so those are closer numbers. Jansen reportedly won't closer upon his return (which could come in the next few days), but one has to think he'll be the guy sometime this month.

A.J. Ramos (MIA) -
The 10.32 ERA and 2.0 BB/9 Steve Cishek has put up have certainly helped my NL-only league team. He's now being used in the earlier innings, leaving closing duties to perhaps a committee, but likely one headed by Ramos. Ramos has a 1.06 ERA and 21:6 K:BB in 17 innings, and though he's not a flamethrower, he's still viewed as the team's closer of the future. That future may be now. Should he also falter, perhaps Bryan Morris gets in the mix.

Tyler Clippard (OAK) -
Clippard has a 1.80 ERA, but his 10:7 K:BB in 15 innings is hardly inspiring. He may simply be a better setup man than a closer. Sean Doolittle is going on a rehab assignment and could be ready in a couple weeks. At that point, I expect he'll be the closer given he has a long-term contract and his ratios last year were outstanding (12.8 K/9, 1.1 BB/9).

Brad Boxberger (TB) -
Boxberger has a 1.38 ERA and 12.5 K/9, but with Jake McGee nearing a return from a shoulder injury, Boxberger could move to a setup role at some point soon. Boxberger's 4.2 BB/9 is a bit of a blemish, and while the ERA is great, McGee was an elite closer last year (1.89 ERA, 11.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9).

Cody Allen (CLE) -
Allen is probably hanging on by the skin of his teeth given his 9.00 ERA and 2.27 WHIP. The velocity is still there (though down a little), so that's led to an excellent 13.9 K/9, but to say that he's been erratic would be an understatement given his 7.4 BB/9. Allen's .512 BABIP is crazy-high, but that's due in part to a line drive rate that has risen from 15.3 to 23.3 percent year over year. There is no obvious successor given Scott Atchison has a 4.91 ERA and Bryan Shaw sports a 1.56 WHIP. Keep an eye on who pitches the eighth inning over the next week and you may have your answer. An interesting sleeper could end up being converted starter Zach McAllister who has a string of seven scoreless innings going in which he has allowed just four hits with a 14:1 K:BB.

Brett Cecil (TOR) -
Since regaining the closer job a couple weeks ago, Cecil has posted five consecutive scoreless innings to take his ERA from 7.20 to its current 3.60. His velocity is down a full two mph compared to last year, though he seems to be a bit better recently. Roberto Osuna should be owned in deeper formats as he's next in line, but Aaron Sanchez could find himself in the mix as well if he's shifted back to the bullpen as I expect he will be.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
David Regan
David Regan is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, including the 2015 Baseball Article of the Year and the 2010 Baseball Writer of the Year.
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