This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
There are 137 pitchers ranked in the top 400, which breaks down to 34.3 percent. There are 30 pitchers in the top 100. I know there are many dynasty-league players who largely ignore pitching prospects, but I believe this is a mistake. They are obviously much riskier than hitting prospects of the same caliber. For instance, I could argue that Forrest Whitley is the pitching equivalent to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., yet Whitley is ranked No. 7 overall, while Vlad has the top spot. This is the pitching prospect tax. It would be silly to rank Whitley ahead of a player like Eloy Jimenez, because all Whitley needs to do is require Tommy John surgery at some point in the next couple years and Jimenez will easily outearn him over a five-year period. But I believe it would be similarly foolish to rank Whitley outside of the top 10 just because he is a pitcher. At some point, the reward is worth the risk, and that same logic applies to every pitching prospect ranked in the top 400.
I am always going to chase upside in pitching prospects, because there really is no such thing as a pitching prospect with a high floor. Obviously this doesn't mean that the pitchers are all ranked from most upside to least upside, but you can get a general sense for how high I think a pitcher's ceiling is based on where they are ranked and how far away they are from the