This article is part of our John Sickels' Column series.
Report on Rick Porcello
One of the most surprising news items from spring training was Detroit's decision to give Rick Porcello a major league rotation spot. Porcello is one of the best pitching prospects in the game, but is just two years out of high school and has no experience at the Double-A or Triple-A level. Are the Tigers insane or inspired?
BACKGROUND
Rick Porcello was drafted in the first round in 2007, out of high school in West Orange, New Jersey. He was considered the best high school pitcher available in the class, but fell to #27 overall due to his bonus demands and a University of North Carolina scholarship. He signed right before the deadline that August, earning a major league contract worth $7 million. While giving a major league contract to a high school pitcher has backfired in the past (see Todd Van Poppel), most experts believed that Porcello could reach the majors on a quick development schedule and would be ready by the time his options ran out. However, at this time in 2007, not even optimists expected him to be ready this quickly.
TRADITIONAL SCOUTING REPORT
Porcello is 6-5, 195 pounds, a right-handed hitter and thrower, born December 27, 1988. A fine athlete, his fastball can hit 95 MPH, though usually works in the 90-92 range. The fastball plays up because of heavy sinking action, and he generates plenty of ground balls. Hitters have a hard time lofting the ball against him. He mixes the fastball with a strong changeup. He has both a curveball and slider, though he didn't use the slider much last year, concentrating on the curveball, which was the weaker of his two breaking balls coming out of high school. The Tigers were reportedly very impressed with the progress he made.
Porcello's work ethic and intelligence are rated very highly, and he's considered very mature for his age. His secondary pitches are still somewhat erratic, hardly damning given his age. He was on a strict pitch-count last year, just 75 pitches per game. He should be durable in the long run, but the Tigers were very careful with his workload last year. It will be interesting to see how much work they give him at the major league level.
SABERMETRIC ASSESSMENT
Porcello led the Florida State League with a 2.66 ERA last year, quite a feat for a 19-year-old. Another positive was his 2.48 GO:AO ratio, strongly demonstrating the ground ball tendency observed by scouts. On the other hand, his 72:33 K:BB ratio in 125 innings is problematic. The walk rate is low, his control is very good, but the strikeout rate was also low, which doesn't project well to higher levels. Granted, the fact that he was so young, and got so many grounders, mitigates the strikeout issue, at least to some extent. But it does emphasize the risk the Tigers are taking here.
Asking a pitcher to jump directly from A-ball to the majors is inherently a large risk. Porcello's performance last year was very good, but it was not Dwight Gooden or Bob Feller-like. Likewise his performance this spring: he was solid, but his 8:5 K/BB and 17 hits allowed in 15.2 innings aren't exactly superb performance metrics.
FANTASY INVESTMENT VALUE
It is difficult to know what to expect from Porcello in 2009. He's very talented, no question, but given the large jump in competition he's facing, and the issues with his component ratios, I think fantasy owners (and the Tigers) should be very happy if they get league-average performance out of him, and to expect him to take some lumps at times. In the long run, he could develop into a Brandon Webb-type ace, assuming he stays healthy and doesn't suffer mentally/emotionally from being rushed.
Basically I think the Tigers are taking a huge risk here. Will it work? Maybe. "Risk is our business," as a famous starship captain once said. But there is a difference between a calculated risk and a reckless one, and right now I'm concerned that promoting Porcello so quickly is an example of the latter, not the former. Time will tell.
For full reports on Porcello and over 1,000 others, pre-order the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book, available only at Johnsickels.net. Now Shipping!
Article first appeared 4/2/09
