This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
Where I Went Wrong
Unbelievably, out of my 10 fantasy football teams, only one is headed to the playoffs this year. That probably sounds worse than it is, because four of those 10 were NFFC teams, and only two of those per league qualify, but still - it wasn't a good fantasy year for me.
Here are a few key mistakes I made:
1. I drafted the wrong quarterbacks.
I was largely determined not to take any of the big three (Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees) because I felt the position was deep, and my next three - available several rounds later - were Nick Foles, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin. As Luck was the most expensive of the trio, I wound up with either Griffin or Foles on seven of my 10 teams. The other three had Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson and Alex Smith.
Having Luck (no pun intended) instead of Foles/Griffin would probably have sent at least six of those teams to the playoffs, including two high-stakes NFFC teams that didn't miss by much.
2. I took Percy Harvin over T.Y. Hilton and Jeremy Maclin in three leagues.
I could probably boil both errors down to a single assumption: I didn't think the Colts would throw as much as they did, and so I was worried Hakeem Nicks and a healthy Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen would cut into Hilton's targets. With Golden Tate gone, Harvin at least was the only game in town - or so I thought - and the Seahawks would use him creatively (I underestimated just how creative they could get, trading him to the Jets for a sixth-round pick.) I liked Maclin too, but wasn't sure if he'd be himself after ACL surgery and how quickly he'd get integrated into the offense.
3. I bought into the big-receiver phenomenon too heavily.
While I was willing to see Harvin as a possible exception because of the talent, running ability and lack of competition on the Seahawks, I had no shares of Hilton, Emmanuel Sanders, Randall Cobb, Antonio Brown, Golden Tate or Steve Smith. I did have quite a few shares of Michael Floyd, though.
4. I bought into the second-year WR breakout theory too heavily.
I wasted a lot of mid-to-late round picks on Aaron Dobson (while ignoring Brandon LaFell) and a few on Justin Hunter. I also had a share of Keenan Allen and a couple of Cordarrelle Patterson. I had zero of DeAndre Hopkins because he wasn't big enough, and I didn't like his setup (opposite Andre Johnson, weak QB, good running game, decent defense.)
5. In the Stopa $10K auction, I saved my money and took great "values."
While some people thrive on value-taking, I'm not one of them - at least in fantasy football, and probably in other sports too. I'm much more of a "genius" style drafter than an "agnostic" one. While you have to take value at some point in the auction, I usually fare better when I go after the players I like first and fill in the gaps with what's available. In Stopa, I noticed people were overspending early, waited forever and nabbed on the cheap players I didn't even like such as Pierre Garcon - a huge "bargain" at $10 out of a $200 budget. The one player on whom I overspent was Julius Thomas at $35. While Thomas' injury prevented him from earning a profit, he was arguably my best player in this 12-team, two-TE format while he was healthy.
6. I preferred LeSean McCoy over Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte.
I had McCoy in two leagues as a result. Forte or Charles (especially had I backed him up with Knile Davis) would have vastly improved those teams.
7. I expected C.J. Spiller to bounce back and see more work.
He had a chance when Fred Jackson got hurt, but suffered a more serious injury himself on his next carry. Even so, by then Spiller had already disappointed.
8. I overdraftedJosh Gordon in a couple leagues, betting on a shorter suspension.
I don't regret this as he did get reinstated, and I think he had a good case to sue for an injunction, but for whatever reason he decided to serve the 10 games instead, i.e., I stand by the gamble. Still, it was expensive to carry him on my teams for 10 games, while forgoing a potentially useful mid-round pick.
In sum, my worst errors were buying into a couple faulty assumptions, namely avoiding small receivers and not ponying up for the Colts passing game in a couple places where the price was modest. It's not that the assumptions weren't reasonable, but I failed to see them for what they were - trends based on certain conditions - rather than facts. While the "big receiver" hypothesis makes sense (it's easier for them to make plays even when they're not open and it's therefore easier for them to score touchdowns because it's hard to get open in the red zone), maybe under the new stricter contact rules, that advantage is muted - especially when you pair the best smaller ones with an elite quarterback or put them in a first-rate offensive system.
As for the Colts passing game, it was conceivable Chuck Pagano would finally turn Luck loose in Year 3 especially after the shoot-out playoff win over Kansas City.
While being agnostic in the Stopa auction wasn't my style, it's easy to say that when the cheap players I got (Garcon, Marques Colston $5, Ray Rice $5, Harvin $13, Zac Stacy $21) didn't pan out. I also remember going after Randy Moss and a rookie Ryan Matthews (two of "my guys") for half my budget in the 2010 RotoWire Steak League and buying steaks* for everyone as a result.
* That was the only time in the 14-year history of our 5-6 person sidebet I bought for anyone else. I did have the indignity of paying for my own steak once a few years prior, but otherwise have always eaten on someone else's dime. (This year, I'm currently in line to be the self-buyer, but it's close, and the competition runs through Week 17.)
Do Projections Systems Overlook Situational Factors At Their Peril?
Some of the better projections systems have the Dolphins as one of the NFL's elite teams and the Jets as one of the worst. As such, they'd expect Miami to roll on Monday night and cover the 6.5-point spread in New York. But that's not what happened, and I'd argue it wasn't simply due to bad luck.
In fact, the Jets dropped two easy interceptions and missed a couple field goals. Moreover, the Jets took two incredibly dumb sacks on third and long from field-goal range, forcing them to punt, when a short gain from a running play might have yielded two more reasonable field-goal attempts. Of course, the systems can chalk this up to random variance - after all, even best bets against the spread come in only 55-60 percent of the time, and there are plenty of games where an old-school handicapper might spot a "situational play," e.g., Monday night home underdog, divisional rival, coming off embarrassing loss with extra prep time, and the favorite blows them out anyway.
Even so, if I were operating one of these models, I'd be interested in looking at games where my best bets didn't pan out and discerning whether there were any kind of pattern. Maybe the relevant performance indicators say the Vegas line is five points off and hence the game is a 55-percent play, but certain other conditions are present that offset that.
Week 13 Observations
• Just when you thought Chris Johnson was washed up, he runs for 105 yards on 17 carries. On the year, he's averaging 4.6 YPC and has caught 20 passes. If the Jets only had a league-average quarterback their offense would be interesting.
• The Dolphins never throw deep, and that makes Mike Wallace indistinguishable from Jarvis Landy except Landry probably has better hands.
• Andrew Luck is either very good at something that's hard to measure or the most aptly named player in the league. At least 177 of his 370 yards and three of his five TDs came on plays where his receiver was simply not covered.
• Colt McCoy isn't likely to be the Redskins starting quarterback next year, but that he's light years ahead of Robert Griffin right now is inarguable.
• How strange that a largely competent Brian Hoyer, who held the Browns together for 10 games with terrible receivers, is falling apart to the point of losing his job now that his superstar target is finally back. As much as I thought Hoyer might be a factor in the fantasy playoffs, I'd rather be wrong and see Johnny Manziel start next week.
• I wasted 15 minutes Sunday morning agonizing over whether to use the Rams or Texans (over the Colts) in my Survivor pool. This after wanting to switch to the Ravens before realizing I had used them already.
• It was nice to see Jonas Gray finally get a carry after oversleeping last week. No one can ever take those four yards away from him. You can't blame Bill Belichick for using LeGarrette Blount, who looks great. But Brandon Bolden? That's on purpose.
• I took the Patriots plus three, and predicted a 26-24 final score. They lost 26 – 21 and didn't cover after Stephen Gostkowski missed a field goal with four minutes left. (I realize the Packers should have been up 30-21 had Davante Adams not dropped an easy TD, but still.)
• The 49ers are even less watchable than I thought. Colin Kaepernick arguably has more physical talent than any quarterback in history, but physical talent above a certain floor is probably 10 percent of the job.
• When you lose by 11 to the Falcons despite getting an 88-yard pick-six, you're in trouble. Bruce Arians didn't help his cause by punting in plus territory on 4th-and-short. The Cardinals got Michael Floyd involved early, but after a fumble on what looked like a decent strip by the defender, Floyd was largely ignored again.
• The Chiefs-Broncos was an awful game. The Chiefs defense actually played great, holding Manning to 5.3 YPA, but every time it got a stop in the second half, something unlucky would happen, from a Chiefs player getting nicked on a sideways bounce from a short punt (causing a turnover) to Alex Smith having a pass batted at the line of scrimmage up in the air and into the hands of DeMarcus Ware. Every time I tried to invest myself in the game for a few minutes, something stupid and random would undermine it and make me question why I wasn't doing something more useful with my life.
• Marvin Lewis made the greatest challenge I've ever seen, and it wasn't even legal. Up one, in the final minute of the game, after Tampa completed a pass to get in easy field-goal range, Lewis threw his red flag, asserting there were 12 men on the field on the play. Because the game was in the final two minutes, all challenges are handled by the booth, and throwing your flag is illegal and costs you a timeout. But once Lewis threw it, the officials had to investigate whether he was right, and when they discovered he was, they had to undo the gain and penalize the Bucs for the infraction, taking them out of range. It was the difference between a win and a loss and could determine whether they make or miss the playoffs.
• The Raiders celebrating a sack last Thursday deep in the Chiefs backfield during live action while Kansas City still had a small chance to win the game told you all you needed about their likely level of "preparation" for their game in St. Louis this week.
• Stedman Bailey, who made a great catch in the first quarter, caught five of six balls for 100 yards. It was the second straight week he's made an impact, and apparently (I don't follow college football) he was also a monster at West Virginia. If Brian Quick can return at 100 percent next season, the Rams should have two dynamic wideouts, not including former first-round picks Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt (if Britt's still around.)
• Tre Mason had a huge day, but any back in the league with above-average speed would have scored that 89-yard TD – Mason was untouched and made no moves on essentially a straight-ahead sprint. Take a look:
• I saw people on Twitter getting props for recommending the Vikings defense this week. Please understand while the four sacks are nice, the main reason they went off is they blocked two punts for touchdowns. That's not defense, that's special teams. And unless the Vikings have a pattern of blocking punts or the Panthers are especially vulnerable to the blocked punt, and you knew that in advance, it's dumb luck.
• I didn't watch much of the Texans-Titans game for obvious reasons, but if I could go back in time and change one thing about my life it would be to sign up for some large DFS tournaments and play Ryan Fitzpatrick and DeAndre Hopkins.
