Regan's Rumblings: Busts to Avoid

Last week in our inaugural 2015 edition of "Bats & Balls," I covered my top sleepers by position. We'll switch to the other side and tackle busts. The term "bust" in my vocabulary does not refer to a guy who I think we'll hit .210 with five home runs, but more a player who I think is being valued too highly based on how I see his 2015 season going. Let me know in the comments if you want my takes on additional players.

Once again, these guys will certainly provide value to fantasy owners, but will that value be greater than or equal to their current average-draft position? I would be wary of making that assumption with these players.

Catcher

Devin Mesoraco (CIN) - Mesoraco took a huge step forward last year, increasing his homers from nine to 25 and his OPS from .649 to .893. He was a solid prospect coming up through the Reds system, so this isn't completely out of the blue, but I'd like to see a bit more before considering him a top-25 catcher. The increase in his K% from 17.3 to 23.4 percent is a small concern, and I'm not sure a catcher with no speed can maintain a .313 BABIP. I'm also not sure I see him sustaining a 20.5 percent HR/FB rate. I'd draft him expecting more like .250 with 20 HR.

Runner-up: Russell Martin (TOR) - Coming off a .290/.402/.430 season, Martin netted an $82 million contract and probably will be overvalued as a fantasy player as a result. His .341 BABIP was 50 points above his career mark, and he hit just 11 home runs last year. Look for him to take a sizeable step back in 2015.

First Base

Jose Abreu (CHW) - Abreu hit .350 after the All-Star break, but just seven of his 36 homers came in the season's second half. A .360 BABIP is also a concern, and now with a full year of game tape for pitchers and coaches to review, could Abreu be in for the dreaded "sophomore slump"? He obviously has power and is a borderline first-round pick, but if you take him top-six and he hits .280 with 25-30 home runs, then you're not getting sufficient value. Paul Goldschmidt, who also steals 10-20 bases, is the far better and safer pick.

Runner-up: Joe Mauer (MIN) - No longer catcher-eligible, Mauer's fantasy value tanks as a result. His value is a little higher in OBP formats, but even there, last year's .361 OBP was 40 points off his career mark. Along with just four homers, Mauer ranks easily in the bottom fifth of the first-base class this year. Perhaps someone can explain to me why a guy listed at 6-foot-5, 225, with a sweet swing has hit one homer per 61 at-bats since hitting 28 long balls in 2009.

Second Base

Jose Altuve (HOU) - Compared to 2013, Altuve improved his average from .283 to .341 and his stolen bases from 35 to 56, propelling him to the second round in some scenarios this year. A 92-percent contact rate is beyond elite, but while a player with this speed should maintain a higher than average BABIP, can he duplicate last year's .363? I'm not so sure, and combined with a 5.1 BB% and little power, I'd rather grab someone like Dee Gordon a few rounds later or a more well-rounded player like Kolten Wong.

Runner-up: Daniel Murphy (NYM) - Murphy turns 30 just prior to Opening Day, so expecting him to reverse last year's SB decline (23 in 2013, 13 in 2014) is probably wishful thinking. Second basemen who hit in the .280s with 10 homers and 10 stolen bases certainly have value, but don't expect much more than that. Reliability and predictability are nice things to have on a fantasy roster, so if you roster someone like Murphy, back him up with a player you can get later that has upside -- Rougned Odor or even Javier Baez as examples.

Shortstop

Jose Reyes (TOR) - Last year's 143 games were Reyes' second highest in six years, a period in which he averaged 115 per season. Considering the last two times he played at least this many (2008, 2012), Reyes averaged just 64 games the following seasons, expecting another 140-plus looks unrealistic. Even last year, Reyes dealt with shoulder and hamstring injuries, seeing his OBP fall to .328 and his homers drop to nine. He did steal 30 bases, but at age 31, the steals could be about to drop dramatically. A healthy Reyes is probably a top-four shortstop, but I'd rather draft a more reliable bat in the fourth-fifth round and take a flier on a player like Xander Bogaerts or Jung-Ho Kang later.

Runner-up: Elvis Andrus (TEX) - We keep hoping for some semblance of a step forward at the plate, but there just hasn't been one for Andrus. He does stay healthy, so that's a positive, but his BB% has declined in each of the last three years to 2014's 6.7 percent, and he managed just two home runs last year to go with 27 stolen bases. Andrus also hit a career-low .263 despite a reasonable .309 BABIP, and there's really nothing to suggest that a performance spike is coming.

Third Base

Adrian Beltre (TEX) - In a career that has seen him rack up 2,600-plus hits and 350 home runs, Beltre looks to be headed toward Cooperstown once he decides to hang 'em up. After his fifth consecutive .880-plus OPS season in 2014, Beltre is coming off many draft boards as the first third baseman, but I'm still a bit wary. First, he turns 36 in April. Second, the homers dropped to 19 after three straight seasons of 30-plus. Finally, the third-base pool is incredibly deep this year. Instead of drafting Beltre in the second or third round, why not grab a someone with upside like Nolan Arenado, who can likely be had in the sixth?

Runner-up: Kris Bryant (CHC) - To get this out of the way, there are few players I'd rather have in dynasty leagues than Bryant, who possesses legitimate 35-40 homer power and can steal a few bases. That said, if you're drafting for only 2015, he's a bit overvalued. We have Bryant ranked as the No. 11 third baseman, which if he comes up some time in April or early May could be a reasonable ranking, but with prospects, you just never know. Bryant fanned in 28.6 percent of his Triple-A at-bats, leaving him susceptible to hitting in the low .230s in the big leagues this year, albeit with 30-homer power. I'd probably let someone else grab him early.

Outfield

Yasiel Puig (LAD) - I'm as big a Puig fan as you'll find. I love the energy he brings to the game, and really, how many players' at-bats do you make sure not to miss? Puig is one of those, but as a first-round pick in 2015? I don't see it. Puig hit .296/.382/.480 with 16 homers and 11 stolen bases a year ago, so his ranking assumes a big step forward this year, which could certainly happen. But what if the step is him hitting 20 homers and stealing 15 bases while hitting .300? Nice, but is that really first-round material? On the plus side, Puig did take his BB% from 8.3 to 10.5 while dropping his K% from 22.5 to 19.4, showing real growth in his plate discipline. He has the strength to hit 30 home runs, but that's not really his game at this point. I'd wait for the bottom of round two to pull the trigger.

George Springer (HOU) - Springer blasted 20 home runs in his last 64 games last year after failing to hit one in his first 14, but I just can't get past the 33.0 K%. That led to a .231/.336/.468 slash line, which is a solid MLB debut, but there are real holes in his swing given the 24-30 percent strikeout rate he posted along the way in the minors. He has upside with his legs as well, stealing 45 bases in 2013 before dropping to 11 in 94 combined games a year ago after suffering a quad injury in July. Now fully healthy, reasonable expectations could be 30 homers and 15 steals, but the K% figures to keep the average low, and there would be a risk that he's sent out for additional minor-league seasoning if the average fell below the Mendoza line.

Nelson Cruz (SEA) - A four-year $57 million contract for a 34 year-old outfielder. What could go wrong? Well, just ask the Mets, who signed Jason Bay to a similar deal after Bay hit 36 home runs for the Red Sox in 2009. In the four years subsequent to that deal, Bay managed 37 home runs and is assumed to have retired following the 2013 season, one in which he played for these same Mariners. Cruz smacked 40 home runs in Baltimore after missing the final 50 games of 2013 due to a PED suspension. Clearly he's not going to hit 40 playing in Seattle, and while we project a .252-25-81 season for Cruz, there is severe bust potential here, as well.

Runner-up: Yasmany Tomas (ARI) - With the success of Yasiel Puig and Jose Abreu, teams are far less reluctant to hand out huge dollars ($68 million in Tomas' case) to Cuban imports. But not all of these guys are going to be superstars, right? Due perhaps in part to a wrist injury, Tomas hit just six homers in 257 plate appearances in Cuba last year and in the last three years, his slash line is .293/.350/.523 compared for example to Jose Abreu's three-year line at the same ages (2008-10) of .356/.478/.681. He's no Abreu, but he'll be starting at either third base or in the outfield, so he'll still have value, but temper expectations.

Starting Pitcher

Madison Bumgarner (SF) - Bumgarner is a beast, but after having seen him throw 270 innings last year between the regular season and a historic postseason, won't those innings take a toll? Maybe that happens farther down the line in his career, as Bumgarner is still just 25 coming off arguably his best regular season with a 2.98 ERA and career-best ratios -- 9.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9. It's probably misleading to be talking too much about Bumgarner in a "Busts" column, but I'd still be a bit wary about the workload. Not wary enough to drop him out of my top-15 pitchers, but given the choice between Bumgarner and, say, a player like Jordan Zimmermann, I'd probably go with the latter.

Masahiro Tanaka (NYY) - With each positive report coming out of Yankees camp this spring (and there are many), you should be less inclined to draft Tanaka. When healthy, he was excellent last year, posting a 2.77 ERA with strong ratios (9.3 K/9, 1.4 BB/9) in 20 starts. Tanaka's season was shortened by a partially torn UCL, the ligament, of course, that relates to Tommy John surgery. Perhaps he'll be fine, but look the likes of Chad Billingsley who tried to rehab a UCL injury. Often, they try to rehab, hurt their arm again and ultimately have to go under the knife. I'm not taking that chance here. Don't forget, even before Tanaka came to the U.S., his strikeout rate was declining, and he had just thrown a 160-pitch game in the World Series followed by closing out the series-clincher the following night. I'd much rather have Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn.

Runners-up: Johnny Cueto won't be a bust per se, but he was so good in so many innings (243.2) last year, that I'm a bit wary that he can hold up over the course of 34 starts yet again. ... A healthy Michael Pineda is a scary proposition for AL hitters, but a pitcher with a history of shoulder and back issues is equally as scary for fantasy owners. Get him late if you can, but don't consider him a top-25 pitcher. ... I just wonder whether the Mike Fiers hype machine is a bit too out of control. His 228:62 K:BB in 223.2 big-league innings is impressive, but let's see a full season of that before considering him a top-20 starter. ... There's no way I'm drafting Jake Arrieta over the likes of Gerrit Cole and Yordano Ventura, both of whom have much higher ceilings. Arrieta is 29 and has yet to log more than 25 big-league starts in a season. ... In one of many "best shape of their life" stories, Justin Verlander has reportedly packed on 20 pounds of muscle after last year's 4.54 ERA season. So that makes him a lock to rebound to near his MVP form right? Not so much.

Relief Pitcher

Joaquin Benoit (SD) - 37 and coming off late-season shoulder injuries, Benoit opens camp as the Padres' closer, but might this be the year that age catches up to him? In looking at his 2014 numbers, it's really tough to make that case. His 94.7 mph average fastball was his highest mark in seven years, and Benoit's ratios were excellent -- 10.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9. Not to mention his 1.49 ERA. That said, Benoit also missed a month in 2014 with the sore shoulder, and given his age, it seems likely a flare-up is coming in 2015. Don't completely avoid Benoit, but in deeper leagues, rostering Kevin Quackenbush as a handcuff is a must.

Runners-up: My top five most likely closers to lose their jobs this year would have to look something like this, with their probable replacements in parentheses: 1. LaTroy Hawkins (Adam Ottavino) 2. Addison Reed (Brad Ziegler) 3. Joe Nathan (Joakim Soria) 4. Joaquin Benoit (Kevin Quackenbush) 5. Jenrry Mejia (Jeurys Familia).