This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
We're looking at a full, nine-game slate for DraftKings on Wednesday, so there's a lot of ground to cover. As of publication, NO/CHA tops the list with an O/U of 222.5, though I think several other games have high-scoring potential. The only really underwhelming line is in the SAN/MEM game, which carries just a 192 O/U. Only Boston and San Antonio are on back-to-backs, but the Spurs have a short trip and Boston is staying in LA to face the Clippers. As the total implies, we should expect the Spurs/Grizzlies game to be a low-scoring, slow-paced one, and with both Memphis and San Antonio hurting at multiple positions, it's a game I might fade altogether. Conversely, a game I really like is CHI/PHI, which I'll expand upon below.
As we look at our 10K-plus elite list, DeMarcus Cousins ($11,600) is $600 above all others after his monumental 103.5 DKFP performance. If you had Cousins on Monday, you were handsomely rewarded. He faces a stiffer defense this time around, but in the Hornets' last five games they've allowed four out of five opposing centers go for 30 SKFP or more, with Marcin Gortat being the only exception. I doubt fatigue will play a part in this game for Cousins, and he should be good for at least half of Monday's total. I think it's a slightly rougher game for Anthony Davis ($10,800), so while Cousins is a stronger play, Davis should have a decent game as well.
James Harden ($10,900) is next on the list and I don't think he's much of a bargain here. While he's unfadeable, I think similar value can be found for around $1000 less. Dallas has proven to be tough against shooting guards, although they've allowed both C.J. McCollum and Gary Harris to outpace their averages in recent days.
I think there are three players on the threshold of 10K that are worth including. The most obvious Is Joel Embiid ($9,700), as he has the enviable task of facing the Bulls, the very team that yielded 103 DKFP to the last center they faced, albeit in double-OT. While Chicago has handled second and third-tier centers well, they are dead-last in center defense over their last five games. While his price is steep, the ceiling is tempting. The rest of the Sixers are nice and shiny too, like Ben Simmons ($7,800) at a price that keeps dipping lower and lower – he's likely to see extended work with J.J. Redick, Jerryd Bayless, and T.J. McConnell both out tonight.
As for Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,600), the last time he DIDN'T have a double-double was almost a month ago, so if you're looking for consistency in a cash lineup, he's certainly worth considering. He actually had a below-average game (for him) on the 14th where he put up 40.3 DKFP against Portland, so in this second meeting you should expect something in the same range.
Finally, Chris Paul ($9,500) gives you a piece of this matchup for a fair price, albeit a little high for my liking. Dallas is all over the map against point guards – recently they've handled John Wall and Jamal Murray but allowed Damian Lillard and Kemba Walker to torch their defense. This is a more favorable matchup for Paul than it is for Harden, though.
I'll now highlight three players at each position, with an additional list of players at each spot that hold equal weight in my predictions. Whenever possible, I'll endeavor to include at least one cheap option per position on this list.
GUARDS
Damian Lillard, POR vs. MIN ($8,900): Lillard is good for more than 40 DKFP every night he takes the floor and he did even better than that when he last faced the Timberwolves. While he comes at a high price, you're getting a virtual guarantee for value. He's the most reliable floor general to acquire on the slate tonight.
Kemba Walker, CHA vs. NO ($8,000): Walker has a pretty steady floor of around 40 DKFP, and he should be on track to exceed that on Wednesday, as the Pelicans are dreadful against opposing point guards. Less-talented guards like Jerian Grant and Jarrett Jack have lit up the Pelicans recently, with Grant going off for 52 DKFP against them on Monday.
Jerian Grant, CHI at PHI ($5,800): Speaking of Grant, he's a great value play tonight with Kris Dunn (concussion) unlikely to play. The aforementioned game against the Pelicans is a good example of the kind of ceiling he has, and although some of Dunn's load may get passed off to Zach LaVine ($5,300), his minutes will be restricted and is more of a tournament flyer than anything else.
Other guards to consider:DeMar DeRozan, TOR at ATL ($8,300); Nicolas Batum, CHA vs. NO ($5,800); DeJounte Murray, SA at MEM ($4,800); Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (if he starts); PHI vs. CHI ($3,900)
FORWARDS
I already mentioned Ben Simmons above, so don't forget about him at $7,800.
Blake Griffin, BOS at LAC ($9,000): That was a pretty triple-double Griffin put up against the Timberwolves, on a night when he should have been challenged a bit more. Boston is a team that puts up even less resistance against the four, and after a demoralizing loss to the Lakers, Boston looks vulnerable. Griffin is poised for a big night if you can afford him.
Lauri Markkanen, CHI at PHI ($6,700): While DraftKings lists the Sixers as third against opposing power forwards, that stat is deceiving when you look at recent history. Over the past two weeks the Sixers have ranked in the bottom-five in that category, surrendering big numbers to guys like Jarrell Martin and Khris Middleton. An even more persuasive argument for Bulls and Sixers on Wednesday is that both teams are two of the league's fastest-paced offenses over the past month.
Dario Saric, PHI vs. CHI ($6,400): For those flocking to this game, they may be tempted to target Robert Covington ($5,700), but for $700 more Saric has the more reliable floor. Though Chicago has handled power forwards well in the past five games (with the exception of Anthony Davis), Saric and the high-powered Sixers offense will pose one of their biggest challenges yet.
Other forwards to consider:T.J. Warren, PHO at IND ($7,000); Taj Gibson, MIN at POR ($5,600); Davis Bertans (if Pau Gasol sits), SA at MEM ($3,900)
CENTERS
Once again, I like Embiid, Cousins, Towns and Davis in that order. I also would love to see the Gasols play against one another tonight, so if Pau Gasol is in, I favor Marc at $7,300. Here are some other options.
Rudy Gobert, UTA at DET ($7,400): It's safe to say that Gobert is back, and though Andre Drummond can dominate the boards, Gobert is an exponentially better ball-handler, defender and shooter than Drummond, which should offset any decrease in rebounds that Gobert might miss.
Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs. MIN ($6,600): Not the flashiest choice, but he's consistent with a fairly reliable floor. Towns got the best of him in their last matchup but Lillard also struggled a bit in that game. Look for a different chain of events in this one.
Montrezl Harrell, LAC vs BOS ($4,700): Harrell remains a superior option to Willie Reed with DeAndre Jordan listed as doubtful tonight. If that designation holds Harrell should be good for 30 DKFP, which is crushing value at this price.
Other centers to consider:Dwight Howard, CHA vs. NO ($8,200)
As you can see, there are a few spots to keep tabs on, so be sure to check for late developments so you can fine-tune your lineups before they lock!
