This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Yahoo will once again roll out contests that combine two games over two days, so you'll have a little extra time to manipulate Houston and Golden State candidates, as players will lock as the games happen.
None of the games in the Conference Finals have been close, and the double whammy for DFS players is that these blowouts have been alternating with abandon. The fantasy headache occurs when you put up scrubs for the wrong squad, although both the Rockets and Warriors played their bench in the final quarter Sunday. One thing is certain – the home teams have by and large enjoyed more success overall, and I'm inclined to adopt that philosophy when tackling this slate.
The usual set of suspects are in play at the top of our player list. I think both James Harden ($51) and Kevin Durant ($48) will deliver floors in the 40-45 YFP range, but it's going to be difficult to ignore LeBron James ($57) at home. While his price severely restricts the addition of more top-flight talent, he's producing ridiculous numbers that you can't replicate with any other player. If you are able to target the proper low-priced options, then LeBron is a great anchor.
Stephen Curry ($39) rebounded with a nice game Sunday, but his price hasn't jumped into the $40s, so I think you're getting a great value at this price. If I can find a way to pair James with Curry and stay under the $200 cap, I'll be a happy camper.
With the above picks in mind, we'll now target two players at each position and also pick a player to fade at each spot. When possible, I'll highlight one low-cost option at each position.
Klay Thompson, GS vs. HOU ($24): All of the Golden State starters suffered from blowout-itis Sunday, but Thompson still managed to give us 25 minutes. He often lingers with the second unit while other starters take a breather so while no one is blowout-proof, Thompson offers huge upside below Yahoo's median price.
Jaylen Brown, BOS at CLE ($22): I didn't wander down into the teens because one can find better bargains at forward. Even though Boston looked dreadful in Game 3, you have to assume that Brad Stevens has devised a way to combat the home court hex Cleveland cast on the Celtics. You've got bona fide talent all over this roster, but Brown possesses intangibles that aren't easily quantifiable unless you're watching the series. Granted, it comes down to the numbers, but I think Stevens will open his tool box wide and give Brown more opportunities.
GUARD TO AVOID
Terry Rozier, BOS at CLE ($30): I'm not against Rozier, but I won't play him at this price anymore. We haven't seen him eclipse 30 YFP since Game 3 of the Philly series, and that's not the kind of production we need for $30. You're squandering valuable dollars if you opt to take a chance here.
Jayson Tatum, BOS at CLE ($24): No one was fully immune to the beatdown given by the Cavs, but Tatum at least looked respectable. At a $6 discount over Al Horford, I think you'll be getting comparable output because while Horford's role won't deviate much, Brad Stevens will find new ways to get Tatum open and allow him more freedom outside.
Kevon Looney, GS vs. HOU ($10): When we get back to Houston I have no problem giving their budget guys a spin, but Looney appears to be the big guy that's getting the most play in relief for the Warriors. While some people will look to Shaun Livingston or Quinn Cook as the low-cost Golden State picks, I think Looney has the highest floor and the best potential to put up a stat line that's worth more than $10.
Other forwards to consider: Andre Iguodala, GS vs. HOU ($17)
FORWARD TO AVOID
Trevor Ariza, HOU at GS ($11): Both Ariza and P.J. Tucker have been yo-yoing up and down for most of the postseason and it's hard to predict which guy will come up short, but the numbers show that Ariza should only be considered as a GPP flier. His floor has been consistently lower than Tucker's, and I don't think the Rockets will be able to make much head-way by looking here too often.
I'll highlight players in a slightly different way at this position. To put it plainly – this is not a spot to get cute. I understand that in order to get the picks above, you may want to go with a Tristan Thompson ($10) or Aron Baynes ($10), and though they've looked worthy of speculation of late (especially Baynes), I think you're making a mistake if you don't opt for one of the big three here. I'm especially fond of Draymond Green ($33) at home. Clint Capela has struggled a bit against the Warriors so I'm less inclined to spend there, but for $2 cheaper I think Kevin Love ($31) will deliver comparable output to Green.
CENTER TO AVOID
Tristan Thompson, CLE vs. BOS ($10): If you're determined to go low here, you're better off with Baynes. I see the novelty of this pick, but it's one of those scenarios where you're simply firing him up and hoping for the best.