This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic: Milwaukee has the second best defensive rating, while allowing the fourth least points per game in the process. For the Magic, that means it's going to be hard to find opportunities on offense, especially when you consider that Orlando has the seventh best offensive efficiency and are allowing the fifth highest block rate to opponents. Milwaukee may have some injury issues at the moment, however because coach Jason Kidd has used a rotating lineup throughout the year, meaning that their bench players have had enough experience on the floor to hold their own when called upon. Frontcourt players like Nikola Vucevic are going to have a hard time finding any space in this matchup, while Victor Oladipo may be set up to struggle against the third highest steal rate in the league.
Offenses to Use
Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Lakers: The Lakers recently received news that may have season long effects. Nick Young is nursing an ankle injury that may keep him out for an extended period of time. Oh, and Kobe Bryant is out for the season with a torn rotator cuff. The result leaves the Lakers a little thin at the guard position, as they start rookie Jordan Clarkson and Wayne Ellington at the moment. Los Angeles has the second worst defensive efficiency in the league, while Chicago has the ninth best offensive efficiency. Chicago has enough depth where there is potential value to find on DraftKings, while the current state of the Lakers allows enough safety to be flexible with lineups on Thursday. With only four games on the slate, this may be the contest to find the best bargains.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Chicago Bulls,
Second game of a back-to-back: New York Knicks, Denver Nuggets
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
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Point Guard
Brandon Knight, MIL ($7,200): Over the past ten games, Brandon Knight has been averaging a steady 32.6 points on DraftKings, while the matchup against Orlando leaves the opportunity for a higher ceiling. Orlando is 22nd in turnovers allowed, as well as 22nd in assists allowed. Over the past fifteen days, Knight is averaging 2.7 steals a game, good enough for second in the NBA during that stretch. Additionally, Orlando ranks 24th in defensive efficiency this year, allowing Knight the freedom to make plays and score. All this, combined with his ability to chip in stats across the board make him worth the money on Thursday.
Other suggestions: Langston Galloway (vs. IND), Aaron Brooks (vs. LAL)
Shooting Guard
Arron Afflalo, DEN, ($6,100): Afflalo has been turning it on lately, after putting up a 4.75 point clunker against Golden State on DraftKings. In the four games after that night, he's averaged 31.93 DraftKings points a game, and is coming off of his best performance against the Clippers on Monday. Memphis also ranks sixth in opponent three-pointers allowed per game, sitting at 8.5 allowed a contest. Afflalo is a shooter, who at $6,100 has the potential to exceed that value and allow you to spend more in other positions.
Other suggestions: Rodney Stuckey (vs. NYK), Tim Hardaway Jr. (at IND)
Small Forward
Khris Middleton, MIL, ($5,200): There is a lack of talent at small forward on Thursday. Despite this, there is a great value on the board with Middleton, who has picked it up in the last three games, averaging 31.91 DraftKings points. Middleton has the benefit of playing Orlando, who as previously mentioned has had problems on the defensive side of the ball this season. Additionally, Middleton may be working with more minutes in this game, as Ersan Ilyasova injured his groin in Tuesday's game against the Heat. All this adds up to a high-ceiling player that can rack up points, steals, and three-pointers at an affordable price.
Other suggestions: Solomon Hill (at POR), Wesley Johnson (vs. CHI)
Power Forward
Pau Gasol, CHI, ($9,300): Gasol is the highest valued player on Thursday's slate; however, with the current state of the Lakers, explained in detail above, he may be worth the price in your lineup. Gaol has averaged 44.8 points over the last ten days, while capping that off with a 58-point performance Tuesday against Golden State. Earlier this season, Gasol put up 23 points, 13 rebounds, and two blocks against the Lakers, while he now gets the chance to repeat that performance in Los Angeles. The Lakers allow the fifth most rebounds to opponents this year; they allow the second most points in the league; and they have few players to compete against Gasol in the frontcourt. Traditionally, players enjoy big games against their former teams, and this shouldn't be any different. Expect Gasol to have a big homecoming in Staples on Thursday.
Other suggestions: John Henson (at ORL), Taj Gibson (vs LAL)
Center
Joakim Noah, CHI, ($6,300): Many of the supporting stats for this selection can be found above. All that combined with Noah's low price at $6,300 makes him a good value from a depleted field of eligible centers. Noah is recovering well from ankle issues that plagued his season, as seen by his 50.3-point outburst on Tuesday against Golden State. This will be Noah's fourth game back from a four-game rest, and coach Tom Thibodeau has already given the green light to increase his minutes. Roy Hibbert was a close value play here, going up against a depleted Knicks frontcourt. However, Noah's value and matchup are hard to pass up.
Other suggestions: Roy Hibbert (vs. NYK), Zaza Pachulia (vs ORL)
INJURY REPORT
Out
Amar'e Stoudemire (ankle/wrist)
Andrea Bargnani (calf)
Game-Time Decision
Carmelo Anthony (rest)
Jimmy Butler (illness)
Mike Conley (wrist)
Cole Aldrich (leg)
Jose Calderon (knee)
George Hill (groin)
Nick Young (ankle)
Mike Dunleavy (ankle)
Ersan Ilyasova (groin)
C.J. Miles (groin)
Tony Allen (ankle)
JaVale McGee (leg)
Travis Wear (hip)
