This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
This is a typical Thursday night schedule, with three games going. This limits the number of options, and as usual ensures that there will be a lot of similar players used across many different line-ups. On the flip side, there are four max-salary players going on Thursday, so people will have to choose which high-priced guys to build around which will help create some diversity. Nevertheless, to win you have to hit on some of the lower-priced guys that out-produce their price tags. Let's see if we can find some of those.
Point Guard
Jerryd Bayless, $4400, at CLE. This one is a bit risky, because word is that O.J. Mayo might return on Thursday and if he does he could eat into Bayless' minutes. The thing is, the same thing was said over the weekend when Michael Carter-Williams returned and Bayless kept right on trucking at the same pace as he was before. I'm leaving him on here because he's playing well, and he's very affordable, so if he maintains the 25 - 30 FPts/G pace he's been on recently then he outproduces his price tag comfortably.
Mo Williams, $6200, vs MIL. Williams is a solid mean, high variance player, This means that while on the whole he's solid (26.9 FPts/G), in reality he can be really bad (13 FPts two games ago) or he can be outstanding (44.2 FPts four games ago). On a day like Thursday with so few games, a high-variance player can help win a league for you if he happens to hit a big one.
Shooting Guard
Jamal Crawford, $4400, vs GS. That "high variance player" thing... Crawford is that in spades. Five games ago Crawford had seven FPts. Last game he had 55.2 FPts. He's been below par more games than not this season, but there is a legitimate chance that the entire starting backcourt of Chris Paul and J.J. Redick could both sit out on Thursday. If so, Crawford has the best chance of being the perimeter engine for a Clippers team that will need him to produce.
Marco Belinelli, $3800, at MIA. The shooting guard position doesn't have any guaranteed high-priced players on Thursday, as only one even has an average of 30 FPts/G (Giannis Antetokounmpo, 30.5 FPts/G). That means that it's very conceivable that every shooting guard scores in the 20s or less on Thursday. So, instead of investing between $6400 and $6900 for your possible 20-something, why not invest in a $3800 player who has scored in the 20s in four of his last seven games. Now, Belinelli's floor is lower (two single-digit efforts in last seven games) but again, to win a tournament on a night with few games you have to take some chances and hit on some low-priced guys.
Small Forward
LeBron James, $10,100 vs MIL. There is a massive fall-off from James (46 FPts/G) to the second (Rudy Gay, 30.2 FPts/G) and third (Harrison Barnes,23 FPts/G) best small forwards on the board. Plus, of the mega-priced players, LeBron has the second-highest average but he's $600 and $900 less expensive than the two highest-priced players. Thus, James seems likely to be the small forward on a lot of the high-scoring teams on Thursday.
Andre Iguodala, $4700, at LAC. After LeBron, the small forward position is much like the shooting guard position where a score in the 20-somethings might be the best mark of the night. Iguodala has gone no lower than 18.8 FPts, and has two games over 32 FPts in his last six outings. He's consistently solid, with upside, at a more modest price than some of the other options. Honorable mention to the rookie (Justise Winslow, $3700) and the vet (Paul Pierce, $3700) as both are even lower priced and have some elements in place to have good games.
Power Forward
Kevin Love, $7800, vs MIL. There are four high-priced options at power forward on Thursday, and while Blake Griffin has the highest scoring average it wouldn't be that surprising for any of the four to lead power forwards in scoring on Thursday night. Of the four, Love has (slightly) the lowest price and also the easiest match-up against a Milwaukee Bucks defense that is 24th in the NBA in production allowed to opposing power forwards.
Chris Bosh, $7900, vs SAC. Very similar story to Love... capable of leading all power forwards in scoring on Thursday, similar price tag, in a relatively easy match-up against a Sacramento Kings defense that is 22nd in production allowed to opposing power forwards. Plus, before a clunker in his last outing (19.4 FPts against the Timberwolves) Bosh had been on a roll (average of 40.8 FPts over previous four outings) which makes him a good candidate to bounce-back.
Center
Hassan Whiteside, $8600, vs SAC. There aren't any obvious value plays at center on Thursday, which means that I'm picking based on who seems to be playing the best relative to their price. Whiteside has just been in the zone of late, averaging 45.2 FPts/G over his last four including his second 50+ FPts outing of the season on Tuesday against a talented Timberwolves interior.
