This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
For this Sunday, we have a shorter slate than usual with just five games to pick from, so it will make for similar lineups between competitors. On days like these, it is crucial to stray from the field and try to get some unique plays into your lineup to diversify yourself. Another interesting aspect of Sunday's games are the big spreads -- expect the Warriors, Thunder, Grizzlies and Pistons to be big favorites. That means predicting blowouts in these games can open some value plays, as well as give us players to avoid.
GUARD
D'Angelo Russell, LAL at DET ($17) - You have to scroll down pretty far to find Russell, which is often a good sign for a value pick. Russell's price has not adjusted to hs recent play. He has scored at least 24 fantasy points in eight of his last 12 games, averaging 12.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 0.9 steals per game. That's about 25 fantasy points a game, which is a fantastic value for a $17 player. Russell has played at least 34 minutes in five of his last eight games, meaning he is being trusted more as the go-to point guard and should receive 30-plus minutes Sunday.
Reggie Jackson, DET vs. LAL ($34) - Jackson has played some fantastic ball lately. In his last three games, Jackson is averaging 29.3 points, 9.7 assists, 3.0 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game. That's nearly 50 fantasy points a game, which is an absurd number. Sunday he faces the Lakers, who are the worst defense in the NBA against point guards based on fantasy points allowed and rank 29th in defensive efficiency. Even if this is a blowout, Jackson should have no problem exceeding value at his reasonable price.
Guard to Avoid:
Brandon Knight, PHX at MEM ($37) - A date with Tony Allen should scare any DFS player. Knight has been spectacular this season, exceeding value regularly, but Memphis is a nightmare for shooting guards. For a $37 player to exceed value he needs about 40 points. While Knight does have 50-point upside, he's only surpassed 40 points five times this season. That's 25 percent, which is too little to use. Predicting Knight to have a bad game is silly, but for him to live up to his price is simply too much to ask in a stifling matchup.
FORWARD
Zach Randolph, MEM vs. PHX ($26) - Randolph just returned last week from a knee injury, and his price suffered because of it. The eight games prior to the injury, Randolph was averaging 16.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.1 steals per game. That's about 30 fantasy points, which is a good value for a $26 player. Since returning, he is averaging about 25 fantasy points in about five fewer minutes. He is just now getting back to playing a full complement of minutes, which should mean more production. This matchup is a tasty one as well, as Phoenix ranks fourth in field goals attempted and first in pace. That means more rebounding opportunities for Randolph against a small frontcourt. Otto Porter and Kobe Bryant are in the same price range as Randolph and the Memphis power forward is a far safer option than either of those.
Jeff Green, MEM vs. PHX ($19) - Not often are forwards from the same team used in a daily lineup, but that's the nature of the pricing Sunday. Green's role has changed significantly the last few weeks, as he's averaging 13.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.4 blocks over his last 11 games. He is averaging more than 10 shots per game in more than 30 minutes per game in that stretch. Few players less than $20 will get off 10-plus shots and play 30-plus minutes. That alone makes him a good play, but Phoenix ranks in the bottom seven in points and rebounds allowed to small forwards.
Forward to Avoid:
Serge Ibaka, OKC vs. SAC ($29) - Ibaka is a good player, but he's not good for DFS. Outside of blocked shots, he doesn't provide enough counting statistics. Ibaka has only surpassed 28 fantasy points once in his last eight games. That stretch correlates with Kevin Durant returning to the lineup, which has resulted in fewer minutes for Ibaka. There's simply not enough ball to go around to feed Durant, Russell Westbrook and Ibaka. The only thing concern is the Kings are one of the most blocked teams in the NBA, but that is negated by the possibility of a blowout in the largest spread on the night.
CENTER
Zaza Pachulia, DAL at WSH ($22) - Pachulia is tied for second in the NBA in double-doubles and has been as reliable as any center this season. The rebounds have been spectacular, as he ranks 10th in the league in rebounds per game. This is the perfect matchup for him to get double-digit rebounds once again, as the Wizards are one of the three fastest-paced teams in the NBA. They also have a multitude of injuries in their frontcourt and that should only make Pachulia more valuable. The price is a great value, and he is the closest to a guarantee to surpass that price than anyone on the board.
CENTER TO AVOID:
Roy Hibbert, LAL at DET ($18) - Unlike Zaza Pachulia, Hibbert is a terrible rebounder. Hibbert probably has six inches on Pachulia, but he has not grabbed more than 10 rebounds once all season. That's insane to consider, but it's just the nature of this soft center. His form lately has been terrible too, as he is averaging 4.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game in his last six games. On Sunday, he gets a date with Andre Drummond as well, which is a nightmare for any center.
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