This article is part of our Hoops Lab series.
For those of you that don't know, I also do some work with TYT Sports. We've had some really good conversations this year, but our most recent ones have been some of the most fun. We've been discussing ESPN's recent All-Time #NBArank project, which has allowed us to go back and argue about the greatest players in history. ESPN put together a panel of their contributors to vote on these lists, and they have been rolling them out over the last several weeks.
Since I'm a basketball nerd, I've actually participated in several top-player-ever evaluation projects through the years. The most analogous one is a Top 100 project that a group of about 50 of us do on a basketball message board that I frequent. I dare say that our group put more time and energy into our list than ESPN did with theirs. But this is a good thing, because it means that a lot of the ESPN picks end up being worthy of closer debate. For this week, let's review the best point guards and shooting guards rankings. For each one, I'll show ESPN's top 10, the top 10 according to my project and the TYTSports interview. And we can discuss them here too, so feel free to chime in with your own opinions below.
Point Guards
ESPN Top 10: Magic Johnson, Oscar Robertson, John Stockton, Stephen Curry, Isiah Thomas, Chris Paul, Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, Walt Frazier, Bob Cousy
My Group's Top-10 (2014): Magic
For those of you that don't know, I also do some work with TYT Sports. We've had some really good conversations this year, but our most recent ones have been some of the most fun. We've been discussing ESPN's recent All-Time #NBArank project, which has allowed us to go back and argue about the greatest players in history. ESPN put together a panel of their contributors to vote on these lists, and they have been rolling them out over the last several weeks.
Since I'm a basketball nerd, I've actually participated in several top-player-ever evaluation projects through the years. The most analogous one is a Top 100 project that a group of about 50 of us do on a basketball message board that I frequent. I dare say that our group put more time and energy into our list than ESPN did with theirs. But this is a good thing, because it means that a lot of the ESPN picks end up being worthy of closer debate. For this week, let's review the best point guards and shooting guards rankings. For each one, I'll show ESPN's top 10, the top 10 according to my project and the TYTSports interview. And we can discuss them here too, so feel free to chime in with your own opinions below.
Point Guards
ESPN Top 10: Magic Johnson, Oscar Robertson, John Stockton, Stephen Curry, Isiah Thomas, Chris Paul, Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, Walt Frazier, Bob Cousy
My Group's Top-10 (2014): Magic Johnson, Oscar Robertson, Steve Nash, John Stockton, Walt Frazier, Chris Paul, Jason Kidd, Gary Payton, Isiah Thomas, Kevin Johnson
Top 10 GREATEST Point Guards Of All Time [Steph Curry Top 5?!] https://t.co/0OaqfBJhKk with @jasonrubin91@ProfessorDrz
— tytsports (@tytsports) January 29, 2016
One of the most important parts of any top-10 list is deciding how you're evaluating the participants. If you are voting for the "best point guards ever," the first thing to do is decide what that means to you. Is it the best peak season? Is it longevity? Is it championship rings? Is it the box scores? Is it impact on the game? Some combination of them all? Whatever your criteria, as long as you know them and stay consistent, you can make a logical list.
It's clear that the ESPN crew didn't do that.
Because right off the bat, I don't see any logical way that John Stockton and Stephen Curry could finish back-to-back. Stockton's value is tied into being a really good player for a really long time, while Curry has been a transcendent player for about 15 minutes. There's no real way for them to finish back-to-back, as there've been lots of players more similar to either that should fall in between. Curry hadn't ascended yet when my group did our vote in 2014, but if we'd re-done the vote this year he likely wouldn't have risen to No. 4 all-time yet. We valued longevity enough that it's hard to imagine him leap-frogging Chris Paul, or even Jason Kidd. I'd argue that he should be below Zeke as well, but my group was big on analytics and the box score advanced stats aren't kind at all to Thomas, so perhaps Curry would have gotten the vote from the rest of my project-mates.
On the whole, both lists have mainly similar names; ESPN has Curry and Cousy in their top-10, while we had Payton and Kevin Johnson in ours. I've already discussed Curry, and another tenet of my group's voting was that consideration was given to whether a player would reasonably be able to replicate their production in other eras. I didn't necessarily agree with that criterion, but that's a big reason why Cousy ranked lower in our group (14th among point guards). The top-2 point guards were the same on both lists, and Nash's huge analytics footprint was enough for my group to elevate the two-time MVP to third on our list ahead of Stockton.
Shooting Guards
ESPN Top-10: Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Jerry West, Dwyane Wade, Clyde Drexler, Allen Iverson, George Gervin, Ray Allen, Reggie Miller, Earl Monroe
My group's (2014): Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Jerry West, Dwyane Wade, Clyde Drexler, George Gervin, Reggie Miller, Ray Allen, Tracy McGrady, Allen Iverson
GREATEST Shooting Guards Of All Time [Dwyane Wade Top 5?!] https://t.co/7psaVtmNdC with @jasonrubin91@ProfessorDrz
— tytsports (@tytsports) January 30, 2016
There was a lot more agreement between the lists at shooting guard, with the top-5 the exact same. The biggest differences were where we placed Miller and Iverson, along with us swapping in McGrady in place of The Pearl. As I mentioned above, analytics played a bigger part in our evaluations than they seemed to in ESPN's. Boxscore-based analytics absolutely love Miller, who was able to scale up his scoring volume on absurd efficiency in the postseason…and those same analytics are critical of Iverson for his heavy usage at much lower efficiency. Monroe didn't even make our top-100 list, as many argued that his game was more style than substance and he couldn't get traction. Meanwhile, some in my group consider 2003 McGrady to be a better peak player than peak Kobe Bryant, and with that as a high-point, McGrady was able to sneak into our top-10 despite the injuries that shortened his career.
Next time we'll go through the frontcourt. In the meantime, let me know below if you strongly agree or disagree with any of these rankings, as this whole process is just one big barbershop conversation….which you all know is right up my alley!
Around the NBA
• Jeff Hornacek became the second coach fired in the last two weeks, joining David Blatt in the unemployment line. The Suns situation has been a bit crazy, as internally they expected to compete for a playoff spot but they just weren't talented enough. Especially with all of the injuries, specifically to Eric Bledsoe, the Suns were going nowhere this year. In recent weeks they have been more in development mode, grooming Archie Goodwin and Devin Booker as the potential backcourt of the future. With the firing, the Suns' ownership has made it clear that they prefer to win sooner rather than later. The rumor mill has the Suns interested in Steve Nash to be their coach, but in the meantime Earl Watson is taking over as the interim coach. I don't expect to see big changes to the fantasy prospects for the Suns, but I'll be watching closely to see if Watson does anything interesting with his rotations and/or personnel.
• DeMarcus Cousins sprained his ankle Saturday against the Grizzlies, forcing him to leave the game in the fourth quarter. He sat out Monday, and the Kings are evaluating him on a day-to-day basis. His availability for Wednesday's game is unknown, but if he does sit again, it is likely Omri Casspi and Willie Cauley-Stein who will be called upon to fill his minutes.
• Deron Williams injured his hip against the Hawks on Monday. While the severity isn't yet known, coach Rick Carlisle said that he was "concerned" that the injury was potentially serious. No drastic moves should be made until more is known, but the last time that Williams sat it was J.J. Barea who saw the biggest jump in production and made the best DFS pick-up.
• Tyreke Evans sat out Monday's game with a knee injury, his third missed game in a row. Evans has been a late scratch for each of those games, as his knee soreness just continues to linger. With Evans' history of knee issues, I speculate that he could end up getting an extended break before the All-Star break to heal. But that's just my speculation; in the meantime continue to consider him day-to-day.
• Karl-Anthony Towns has caught fire of late, distancing himself from his rookie brethren and making his fantasy owners very happy. He is averaging 22.4 points on 65.3 percent shooting from the field and 84.2 percent from the line, 11.6 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.8 blocks and 1.0 steal per game. He is reaching his immense potential before our eyes, and it's fun to watch. With that said, if I could trade him, I might do so. I think it's unlikely that he goes up yet another level this season, and since he's a (very young) rookie, there's always the chance for some sort of regression/rookie wall. On the other hand, Towns has the feel of being something special, and it's always fun to have those types of players on your team just for watching value.
• Tim Duncan has been sitting out for the past week with a sore knee. Kobe Bryant has been missing about a game a week with a shoulder injury. Dirk Nowitzki has been sitting in the second half of back-to-backs. Kevin Garnett is essentially coaching for the Timberwolves right now. While I don't doubt that those body parts hurt, whenever I see that one of them will sit I mentally categorize the absences as "DNP, old".
• My DFS radar pinged last week when I realized that Dennis Schroder was pretty consistently out-producing starter Jeff Teague. Then over the weekend I saw a rumor on RealGM that the Hawks are hoping to trade one of their point guards. I haven't seen anything to suggest that this is any more than rumor, but even without a trade, Schroder has played himself into own-able status in deep leagues while Teague has moved in the other direction.
• Julius Randle produced solidly when he got starters minutes at the beginning of the season, but he was then moved behind Larry Nance on the depth chart. However, Nance has been injured for the past couple of weeks, which has opened the spot back up. Randle has taken advantage of the opportunity, averaging 14.3 points and 11.2 rebounds per game over his last six to take a tighter grab on the starting slot.
Back-to-Backs 2/1– 2/8
MT: Bucks, Raptors
TW: Celtics, Heat, Timberwolves
WT: Pistons, Pelicans
TF: Knicks
FS: Nets, Hornets, Bulls, Cavaliers, Mavericks, Pacers, Grizzlies, 76ers, Spurs, Jazz, Wizards
SS: None
SM: Hawks, Nuggets, Clippers, Magic, Kings
MT: None
New Additions and DFS Value
Zach LaVine (54 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues): The Timberwolves have been re-emphasizing their youth movement of late, with veterans like Kevin Garnett and Kevin Martin either playing fewer minutes or sitting out to rest injuries. This has played to LaVine's favor, as he is averaging 22.3 points on an unsustainable 63.6 percent shooting from the field with 3.0 assists, 2.3 boards and 2.0 3-pointers per game over his last four.
Jeff Green (52 percent): Green has made a career out of teasing with excellent production followed by a bunch of meh. So this is less of a recommendation and more pointing out that he's been in the midst of one of those teasingly great periods. Green has averaged a whopping 26.0 points, 5.5 boards, 2.8 treys and 1.5 steals in 31 minutes per game over his last four.
Nikola Jokic (48 percent): Jokic has emerged from the scrum of bigs in Denver to average 19.3 points, 11.7 boards, 3.0 assists and 2.0 steals per game over his last three.
Langston Galloway (36 percent): Galloway has been getting more run because Jose Calderon is hurt, and he makes a reasonable short-term grab, as he is averaging 13.3 points, 4.8 boards, 3.8 assists, 2.3 steals and 1.8 3-pointers in 31 minutes per game.
