This article is part of our NBA Barometer series.
Although play doesn't resume until Thursday, risers like Kyrie Irving and Aaron Gordon will be chomping at the bit to get back on the court. Fantasy basketball championships are won after the All-Star break, so this edition will focus on a long-term outlook aimed to identify the players capable of lifting you to a title as well as those whose levels are on the downswing.
RISERS
Markieff Morris, PF, PHX - The mercurial Morris has spent the majority of this campaign pouting about the trade of his twin brother Marcus Morris and clashing with ex-head coach Jeff Hornacek. While Marcus is still on the Pistons, Hornacek's removal has lit a fire under Markieff that is likely to carry over through the rest of the season. He has averaged 20.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG and 4.6 APG in five games under interim head coach Earl Watson, and the 26-year-old's 15.3 PPG and 6.2 RPG last season show that he's more than capable of sustaining a high level of play over a long sample when he wants to.
Aaron Gordon, PF ORL - The Magic demonstrated their belief in Gordon by dealing fellow forward Tobias Harris to the Pistons on Tuesday, and it's easy to see from where that confidence stems by looking at his recent production. Gordon has been pushing a points-rebounds double-double with contributions in blocks, steals and three-pointers since joining Orlando's starting lineup, and those numbers should only go up as the 20-year-old gets more acclimated to
Although play doesn't resume until Thursday, risers like Kyrie Irving and Aaron Gordon will be chomping at the bit to get back on the court. Fantasy basketball championships are won after the All-Star break, so this edition will focus on a long-term outlook aimed to identify the players capable of lifting you to a title as well as those whose levels are on the downswing.
RISERS
Markieff Morris, PF, PHX - The mercurial Morris has spent the majority of this campaign pouting about the trade of his twin brother Marcus Morris and clashing with ex-head coach Jeff Hornacek. While Marcus is still on the Pistons, Hornacek's removal has lit a fire under Markieff that is likely to carry over through the rest of the season. He has averaged 20.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG and 4.6 APG in five games under interim head coach Earl Watson, and the 26-year-old's 15.3 PPG and 6.2 RPG last season show that he's more than capable of sustaining a high level of play over a long sample when he wants to.
Aaron Gordon, PF ORL - The Magic demonstrated their belief in Gordon by dealing fellow forward Tobias Harris to the Pistons on Tuesday, and it's easy to see from where that confidence stems by looking at his recent production. Gordon has been pushing a points-rebounds double-double with contributions in blocks, steals and three-pointers since joining Orlando's starting lineup, and those numbers should only go up as the 20-year-old gets more acclimated to his increased role. His ability to contribute across the board makes Gordon an enticing asset moving forward, as the Magic's playoff push shouldn't interfere with their goal of continuing to develop one of the league's youngest rosters.
Kyrie Irving, PG, CLE - Irving is finally starting to look healthy again after dealing with injuries all season, just in time to reward those who stuck with him through thick and thin. He tied or exceeded his season scoring average in each of his final eight games before the All-Star break, finally displaying the explosiveness that made him the top pick in the 2011 NBA draft. While Irving's season-long marks of 19.0 PPG and 4.5 APG are decent, he's capable of producing at a completely different level in the second half as evidenced by the 26.9 PPG and 6.0 APG output from his most recent eight-game stretch.
Myles Turner, C, IND - Turner was largely a fantasy nonfactor until an Ian Mahinmi injury gave him a chance to shine in extended minutes, but the rookie's recent level has assured him plenty of playing time moving forward regardless of Indiana's injury situation. He's averaging 15.5 PPG, 7.1 RPG and 2.2 BPG since Jan. 17, and is still improving at just 19 years of age. Even in a crowded frontcourt situation featuring Mahinmi and Jordan Hill, Indiana's prized young asset has earned a major role thanks to his superior offensive capabilities and rim protection.
Chandler Parsons, SF, DAL - Parsons had to deal with early-season minutes restrictions coming off a knee injury, but he has heated up since Jan. 20, with averages of 20.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG and 2.8 3-pointers over his last 12 games. Dallas would like to cut minutes for aging veterans like Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams with the playoffs looming, meaning Parsons will be asked to carry an even more significant offensive load down the stretch. His level of play has risen to its pre-injury levels, and should stay that way in the second half as long as Parsons remains healthy.
INJURIES
Blake Griffin, PF, LAC - Even if the Clippers do end up trading Blake Griffin in what would be a shocking move at the Feb. 18 deadline, the 2009 first overall pick would be a fantasy stud regardless of the uniform he wears. The problem is he's still projected to be out until mid-March with a hand injury, meaning he's still about a month away from helping owners. Feel free to hold onto him if you're in a good enough spot to do so, but know that he'll also have to serve a team-imposed, four-game suspension upon returning if he remains a Clipper.
Jimmy Butler, SG, CHI - Butler was given a three- to four-week timetable by the Bulls for his strained left knee, meaning owners can expect to be without him for almost half of the remaining action even if he suffers no additional setbacks. His well-rounded profile and tremendous scoring output make Butler worth hanging onto for all owners except those whose seasons are in the most dire of straits, and he should be back just in time for the playoffs in head-to-head formats. Those hoping to swoop on a potential replacement are out of luck as the Bulls figure to make up for his production through a committee approach.
Nikola Mirotic, PF, CHI - Mirotic is weeks away from returning after needing surgeries for an appendectomy followed by a hematoma. He has reportedly lost 15 pounds due to complications from the surgeries, meaning an earlier return would leave him playing at less than full strength. Mirotic is a nice fantasy asset when healthy, but the uncertainty of his situation makes him a liability at the moment.
Fallers
Dirk Nowitzki, PF, DAL - Nowitzki has topped 20 points just once in Dallas' last 12 games, while playing in just nine, as head coach Rick Carlisle has made a concerted effort to cut down on his star's minutes with the Mavericks in line for a playoff berth. The 37-year-old German's production will probably taper off as the wear and tear of the NBA season catches up to him despite the extra rest, but his frequent absences will lower the veteran's overall value even if he does somehow avoid a dropoff in per-game numbers.
Elfrid Payton, PG, ORL - Payton is a terrific passer, but his inability to shoot has allowed Orlando's opponents to slough off him and reduce space for his teammates. Head coach Scott Skiles has stated that the team's goal is to make the playoffs, so he won't be afraid to use the newly acquired Brandon Jennings ahead of Payton if he believes it gives the Magic a greater chance of winning. With Victor Oladipo locked in at the shooting guard position, expect Jennings' minutes with the Magic to come mostly at Payton's expense.
Michael Carter-Williams, PG, MIL - Carter-Williams no longer has a monopoly on ball-handling duties in Milwaukee now that Jerryd Bayless and O.J. Mayo have returned from injuries, and that's bad news for his production. The former 76er has always had dismal percentages, accruing value through sheer volume in a high-leverage role. He won't be asked to act as the focal point of an injury-riddled and/or plain atrocious team in the second half, which should lead to modest statistical returns at best from Carter-Williams.
Cody Zeller, C, CHA - Zeller's run of consistent near double-double production has been fun, but it's coming to a close with Al Jefferson (knee) due back in the coming days. Jefferson gives Charlotte a much-needed offensive presence in the post, while Marvin Williams has exceeded expectations as a stretch-4. With no hole left to be filled, Zeller should find himself once again stuck in a low-minutes bench job moving forward as long as the Hornets stay healthy.
