This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
In an eight-game slate, I feel it's beneficial to examine every matchup and try to find a couple of games to ignore completely. For this particular slate, there are two games I'm staying away from: the 76ers-Cavaliers matchup and the Spurs-Clippers game.
What concerns me with the Cleveland game is that this could be a blowout early. If that does happen, it would be unlikely that any of the reliable fantasy options will play over 30 minutes, thus limiting monster potential. The San Antonio game worries me because the Spurs are playing the second half of a back-to-back and their rotation is already a bit funky -- not to mention they still have an elite defense and could stifle some of the reliable Clippers' options as well. That gives us six games to play from, and luckily there are some great value plays across those matchups.
Guards
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. SAC ($9,900): Westbrook and Harden are obvious guard choices, but the Greek Freak could be a sneaky elite option as well. Many people will pivot to Westbrook or Harden, but it's way easier to get other studs in your lineup when you use Antetokounmpo at more than $2,000 cheaper than the other two. Antetokounmpo has been great, as well, as he's had 42 or more fantasy points in every game this season. The matchup is the icing on the cake, as the Kings, who will likely be without Rudy Gay (ribs), were one of the three-worst defenses last season.
Dennis Schroder, ATL vs. HOU ($5,900): Schroder hasn't quite lived up to expectations this season, but he's coming off a season-high 20 points in the Hawks most recent game. In that loss to Washington, he played a season-high in minutes as well and it appears the Hawks are finally leaning more on their blossoming point guard. What makes this such a great play is the matchup, though, as he faces a Rockets team that plays at one of the fastest paces in the league. It's not just the pace, however, as they have very little point guard defense with Patrick Beverley injured. At under $6,000, Schroder should be able to exceed value with a 4X floor.
Kris Dunn, MIN at OKC ($4,900): Dunn is now starting for the injured Ricky Rubio and he's played great in his stead. In fact, Dunn has 54 fantasy points across his two games as the starter, while playing at least 30 minutes in each game. What's best about Dunn is that he did that damage without surpassing 10 points scored. Oklahoma City is a rather easy matchup, too, as the Thunder have a below-average defense. The value is the best part of this play, though, as the $4,900 price tag doesn't represent his new role as the starter.
Forwards
Paul Millsap, ATL vs. HOU ($8,300): Millsap is a regular in my articles and he's yet to disappoint. What's made him so good this season is the fact that the Hawks are using him as the focal point of the offense. He is running a lot of the offense out of the post and accumulating rare assist numbers for a big man. What's also impressive is his ability to add blocks and steals, as he's one of few players in the league who will average about two apiece in both categories. The matchup is obviously the gravy, though, as he faces the Rockets in what's expected to be the most fantasy-friendly game of the night.
Nikola Jokic, DEN at DET ($5,700): While Jokic hasn't quite lived up to his third-round draft stock this season, he's surpassed this $5,700 price tag. This is one of those rare occasions in which the DFS sites are overlooking a player's draft stock and just basing their pricing on the numbers. While Jokic has been hanging in the teens in fantasy points in three of four games this season, he did have a 55-point outburst. That sort of upside makes him incredibly valuable and it's clear he has the capability to blow up any time he takes the floor. What is enticing here is the matchup, as he should have some room to dominate against a small power forward like Marcus Morris. Even though Jokic is a risky bet with his inconsistency, $5,700 is simply too cheap to pass up with this sort of ceiling.
Trevor Ariza, HOU at ATL ($5,000): Ariza has always been a minutes hog and it makes him an intriguing option on this Houston offense. This is more of a bet on his price, as he should be a $6,000 player by the end of the season. With all of the up-tempo play and movement in this offense, Ariza should be able to accumulate stats through sheer hustle and strong three-point shooting. Ariza needs just 25 fantasy points to provide 5X value, and that should be his floor in this offense. While a matchup against Atlanta may be tough, Ariza should still be able to provide value with a guarantee for 30-plus minutes in a game with a total approaching 220.
Centers
Andre Drummond, DET vs. DEN ($8,000): As a fan of the Nuggets, I can tell you that Drummond absolutely owned Denver in their most previous meeting. After doing some research, he actually recorded a 15-point, 17-rebound, five-block, three-steal line in a loss to the Nuggets last February. Drummond has actually seen his price decrease since the start of the season due to his subpar play and that makes him even more alluring here. He is actually ranked outside of the top-15 on this slate for pricing and that shouldn't happen with his potential to drop 50-plus fantasy points in this sort of matchup.
Steven Adams, OKC vs. MIN ($5,100): All of the Thunder players put up a dud in their most recent loss to the Golden State Warriors, but he should be able to bounce back in this matchup, Before that blowout loss, Adams had played at least 30 minutes in every game and has averaged 25 fantasy points a game. He should be leaned on heavily here, considering he'll be asked to cover Karl-Anthony Towns, who will play 35-plus minutes. Minnesota is actually one of the top-10 teams in blocks against, which should benefit a defensive stud like Adams.
Clint Capela, HOU at ATL ($4,400): Capela has seen his price decrease and it's simply fallen too far. The Swiss center has shown his ability in the past and he has double-double potential on any given night. His peripheral stats can be beneficial, as well, as he has the capability to add elite steals and blocks numbers in addition to his double-double potentail. The problem has been the minutes, as he is averaging just 23 minutes per game. Even in that time, his floor has been 4X value with a 16 fantasy point average. Capela has the ability to drop 40 fantasy points and we're going to bet on him here in a game where the Rockets will need a defensive big man on which to lean against an athletic Paul Millsap.
