This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defense To Avoid
Washington Wizards vs. Denver Nuggets: The Wizards are at home against a Nuggets squad that just gave up 111 points to the Nets on Wednesday night and is surrendering the fifth-most points (109.3) and eighth-highest field-goal percentage (45.9) on the season. Meanwhile, the Wizards have put up totals of 115, 118 and 116 points in three of the last four games and are shooting a solid 45.4 percent from the floor in their own right.
Offense To Use
San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls: While the Spurs are on the road Thursday, that hasn't rattled them at all this season, as they are a perfect 13-0 away from home. They've given up less than 100 points in their last three road tilts and are surrendering the third-fewest points (97.8) on the season, overall. The Bulls have also been mired in a bit of an offensive slump, having failed to reach the century mark in three of the last five contests. Plus, they'll be playing their fifth game in seven nights Thursday.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Raptors, Timberwolves
Second game of a back-to-back: Nuggets, Trail Blazers, Warriors
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
John Wall, WAS vs. DEN ($9,500): Although there are certainly some big names at guard on Thursday's modest slate, Wall draws the best matchup and could well have the most upside, despite being the highest priced. The Nuggets give up the fourth-most fantasy points (58.7) to point guards on the season, and are ranked in the bottom-10 in rebounds and assists surrendered to the position, as well. Meanwhile, Wall is playing the best basketball of his career and has tallied 48.5-to-75.5 fantasy points in his last five games, with the jaw-dropping high end of that range having come on Tuesday versus the Magic.
Bradley Beal, WAS vs. DEN ($6,700): We'll continue picking on the Nuggets' defense with Beal, who's been over 40 fantasy points in three of his last six games. Denver is even weaker against two-guards than point guards, surrendering the most fantasy points (48.3), "real" points (25.1) and assists (4.6) per game to the position. Furthermore, Beal has been markedly better at home than on the road this season, shooting 45.3 percent from the field, 43.2 percent from three-point range and averaging 35.6 fantasy points within the friendly confines of the Verizon Center.
Kris Dunn, MIN at TOR ($3,000): Like all rookies, Dunn has his share of stretches of inconsistent play, but he seems to be settling in nicely as of late. He's scored 16.25-to-23.5 fantasy points over the last three games while receiving a steady allotment of 16-to-18 minutes during that stretch. While it's an admittedly small sample size, his point totals have gone up in each of those games, and he's shot an outstanding 73.3 percent from the floor over that span. With starting point guard Ricky Rubio often struggling on the offensive end -- 36.7 percent from the field and 18.2 percent from three-point range in the last five games -- Dunn could continue seeing a decent allotment of minutes, giving him a chance to return 5x-7x value on his minimum price.
Anthony Davis, NO vs. PHI ($11,800): Davis stands out at forward on this relatively short slate and is worth the five-figure investment Thursday. His recent run has been spectacular even, by his standards, as he's made 60-fantasy-point games the norm. Davis has eclipsed that mark in four of the last seven contests and has also posted tallies of 70.75 and 79.0 fantasy points in two other contests during that stretch. He played 48 minutes in a double-overtime battle against the Grizzlies last Monday, but with a couple of days of rest, he should be primed to thrive against a Sixers frontcourt that has been merely average against power forwards.
Wilson Chandler, DEN at WAS ($6,300): Despite the modest number of games, there are actually a good bit of appealing mid-tier plays Thursday, including Andrew Wiggins ($6,400), LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,000) and JaMychal Green ($5,900). However, Chandler gets the call in a matchup against a Wizards squad that resides just outside the bottom-10 in fantasy points surrendered to small forwards (42.8), and that's also given up the fourth-most assists (4.0) to the position. While a reprisal of his 51.25-fantasy point performance from Wednesday isn't likely, Chandler has actually outperformed starter Danilo Gallinari on a frequent basis of late, posting 24.25-to-55.25 fantasy points in eight of his previous nine contests.
Joe Johnson, UTA vs. GS ($4,400): Starting shooting guard Rodney Hood (hamstring) has already been ruled out of Thursday's game, which very likely means a start for Johnson. He collected 22.5 fantasy points over 29 minutes against the Suns while filling in Tuesday after Hood exited the game and could certainly exceed that total Thursday. When Hood was unavailable a week ago against the Heat, Johnson logged the start and totaled 30.75 fantasy points in 30 minutes.
Joel Embiid, PHI at NO ($7,500):Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,700) and Marc Gasol ($7,700) also make for appealing top-shelf plays at center Thursday, but Embiid may provide the best overall value when all is said and done. A down shooting game (5-15 FG) against the Nuggets on Monday still didn't prevent Embiid from returning 31.5 fantasy points, in large part thanks a career-high five blocks. He's likely due for a bounce-back on the offensive end Thursday against a Pelicans defense that's surrendered the third-most fantasy points (60.5) to centers over the last five games and most rebounds (16.7) per contest to the position on the season. That could well allow Embiid to get back over the 40-fantasy-point mark, a milestone he'd reached in three of five games prior to Monday.
Pau Gasol, SA at CHI ($5,000):Zach Randolph ($5,300), who is center-eligible, is another intriguing option in the mid-tier, but Gasol gets the call against his old Bulls teammates. He's very reasonably priced, considering he's posted 42.0, 29.75 and 21.75 fantasy points, respectively, in the last three games. Plus, the Bulls have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points (50.1) and ninth-most points (20.0) to centers.
Jusuf Nurkic, DEN at WAS ($4,400): There's not much value below the $4K mark at center Thursday, so Nurkic stands out as the next-lowest-priced option. He's certainly no lock to bring back the desired 5x-6x return but is fully capable of it, having posted 24.75 and 31.0 fantasy points in two of the last four games. The downside is that he tallied 14.5 and 15.25 fantasy points in the two other contests during that span, making him a bit of a wild card. Nurkic's downturns in production are almost always tied to a playing time reduction, which can come at any time under the rather unpredictable rotations of Mike Malone. As such, the big man shapes up strictly as a tournament play.
INJURY REPORT
For the latest news on injured players heading into the games, check out our Injury Updates page.
