This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defense To Avoid
Utah Jazz, vs. Philadelphia 76ers: The Jazz's defense is always in play, particularly at home, and against a team that struggles to remain consistent on offense. Utah has given up the least points per game (95.3) and allows the second-lowest shooting percentage (43 .0 percent). Meanwhile, the Sixers are scoring the fifth-fewest points (98.7) per game while only shooting 43.7 percent as a team.
Offense To Use
Toronto Raptors, vs. Phoenix Suns: Despite a fast-paced affair against the Warriors on Wednesday, I like the Raptors' chances to put up some points against a Suns squad that is tied with the Nets for most points (114.3) surrendered per game, and that's allowing a 46.9 percent success rate from the field to opponents. The Raptors bring plenty of firepower as well, averaging 111.4 points per game, good for third in the league.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Heat, Celtics, Sixers, Mavericks
Second game of a back-to-back: Hornets, Suns, Raptors
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Kyle Lowry, TOR at PHO ($8,500): If your budget allows you to fit in Russell Westbrook ($12,500) on Thursday, then I say have at it, even against the Grizzlies. However, for those needing to save some cash and looking for what potentially might be the best fantasy-point-per-dollar play on the slate, Lowry is your man. He tallied 57.5 fantasy points on Wednesday against the Warriors, his second game over the last three over the 50-mark. He's posted no less than 33.75 in any of his last 10, and faces a Suns defense that's given up the fourth-most fantasy points (58.1) to point guards on the season, the most fantasy points over the last five (66.8) and the most points (25.7) on the campaign. At his reasonable price, Lowry could be in line for a 6x return Thursday.
Wesley Matthews, DAL at LAL ($5,700): The mid-tier offers a few viable alternatives, including Avery Bradley ($6,100), Matthews' teammate Deron Williams ($5,900), Tyler Johnson ($5,400) and Lou Williams ($5,200). However, I like Matthews' potential against a Lakers defense that's had no answer for the two-guard position all season, giving up the sixth-most fantasy points (43.1), fifth-most points (23.1) and fifth-most three-pointers (3.0) per contest to the position. Matthews has averaged 27.0 fantasy points in 16 road games this season, and he tallied 27.3 against this same Lakers squad in their one previous meeting this season.
Terrence Ross, TOR at PHO ($3,600): Ross brings very nice upside at a sub-$4K price, as evidenced most recently by his 40.25 fantasy points against the Warriors on Wednesday. He also has another game at 37.25 fantasy points in his last 10, and has actually been a bit more proficient away from the Air Canada Center this season, averaging 18.4 fantasy points in 14 road games. With a matchup against one of the most porous backcourts in the league Thursday, Ross presents as a low-risk, high-ceiling option for those needing to save some cash.
Gordon Hayward, UTA vs PHI ($8,100):LeBron James ($10,300) is certainly in play against a Celtics team that he already lit up for 59.8 fantasy points once this season, but much like in Kyle Lowry's case, I like Hayward's combination of potential upside and price, not to mention matchup. He tallied 50.25 fantasy points in his last game, a 102-100 Jazz victory over the Lakers on Tuesday. Thursday, he draws a matchup that's nearly as good, as the Sixers have given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game (45.6) to small forwards on the season. Hayward has been over 40 fantasy points five times over the last 10 (in addition to his 50-plus fantasy points Tuesday), and has averaged 38.3 fantasy points in 13 home games this season.
James Johnson, MIA at CHA ($5,100):Harrison Barnes ($6,800), Julius Randle ($6,200) and Johnson's teammate Justise Winslow ($5,600) and Zach Randolph ($5,200) also warrant attention in the mid-tier Thursday, but my top choice out of a solid group is Johnson, who continues to provide returns worthy of a starter despite his role off the Heat bench. He was at it again Tuesday, when he compiled 28.25 fantasy points against the Thunder. It was Johnson's fourth straight game with double-digit points, and eighth in the last 10. He's scored 23.75 to 40.5 fantasy points in those contests, and has actually been at his best on the road this season, averaging 25.5 fantasy points over 12 games away from American Airlines Arena. The Hornets also check in giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to small forwards per game (44.2) this season.
Derrick Favors, UTA vs. PHI ($3,900): You're not likely to find Favors at this price at any other point, and his minutes are currently trending upward after a long absence. He was at 22 minutes in his last contest against the Lakers on Tuesday, a game in which he produced an efficient 18.5 fantasy points. He's likely to see another bump up Thursday, and will draw a Sixers defense that's surrendered 50.8 fantasy points to power forwards over the last five games, along with 45.0 percent shooting to the position on the season.
Kevin Love, CLE vs. BOS ($8,200):Hassan Whiteside ($8,600) draws an appealing matchup but recently admitted to playing hurt, and his lackluster performance on Tuesday versus the Thunder seemed to bear that out. Therefore, I like Love at $400 cheaper and with a matchup against a Celtics team that he already posted 37.5 fantasy points against in a prior meeting this season. Love has also averaged 42.8 fantasy points at home this season, and has scored no less than 34.0 fantasy points in any game over his last 10, while also eclipsing the 50-fantasy point mark in three of those contests.
Jonas Valanciunas, TOR at PHO ($5,300): Valanciunas is on the second game of a back-to-back but only played 21 minutes against the Warriors on Wednesday, leaving him with plenty of rest to take on a Suns defense that's surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points (50.7) to centers on the season, and the seventh-most (59.4) over the last five games. They've also yielded the most points (22.9) to the position overall, while Valanciunas has averaged 29.3 fantasy points over 14 road contests this season, and scored 24.0 to 37.0 fantasy points in eight of the last 10 games.
Dwight Powell, DAL at LAL ($3,700): There's a chance that Andrew Bogut returns at center Thursday, but his minutes are likely to be limited if he does. That keeps Powell viable under any circumstance, especially given his price and matchup. The big man's playing time has been consistent, and he's been over 20 fantasy points in three of the last five. He also posted 26.5 fantasy points against this same squad in their one prior meeting this season, and the Lakers remain one of the most permeable frontcourts in the league, giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to power forwards (52.4) and fifth-most (50.7) to centers on the season.
INJURY REPORT
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