This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defense to Avoid:
Utah Jazz vs. Detroit Pistons: There aren't many defenses as scary as Utah's and that only makes an already struggling Detroit offense harder to use. The Pistons are averaging under 100 points a game on the road, as they have the sixth worst offense in the league away from home. That doesn't take into account this matchup, as the Jazz are dominant across the board. In fact, they rank first in total defense at home, allowing just 93 points per game. The fantasy numbers are even scarier, as they allow the fourth least fantasy points (or better) to all five positions. Not to mention, Detroit will be playing the second half of a back-to-back set, as they had the grueling task of playing the Warriors on Thursday
Offense to Use:
Toronto Raptors vs. Brooklyn Nets: This play almost seems too obvious, as this is one of the best offenses against one of the worst defenses. Brooklyn is actually worse on the road too, as they are allowing a ghastly 117 points a game. In addition to that, they'll be in the second half of a back-to-back set, as they travel north of the border for this game against a hungry Raptors team. Toronto's offense has been unstoppable too, as they're averaging 113 points per game at home on the season, with the second best offensive rating in the league. A blowout is the only real concern here for fantasy purposes, but there's no better bet for a team to drop 120-plus points Friday.
Teams on Back-to-back Set:
First Game: Jazz, Magic and Sixers
Second Game: Nets and Pistons
DraftKings.com Player Recommendations
Kyle Lowry ($8.500)/DeMar DeRozan ($8,700), TOR vs. BRK: Toronto is my offense to use Friday, and that means Lowry and DeRozan are top-notch choices considering they carry the Raptors offense. Not only are both players averaging over 43 fantasy points per game, they both come into this game hot. In fact, both players are averaging 47 fantasy points across their last six, stuffing the stat sheet on a nightly basis. The best part of this play is the matchup though, a the Nets rank as the worst defense in the NBA. In addition, they allow the most fantasy points in the NBA to guards this season.
Goran Dragic, MIA at MIL ($6,700): Dragic has thrived in his new role as the go-to guy in Miami and this price is not indicative of how good he's been. Not only is he playing monster minutes every night, he's averaging 35 fantasy points per game this year. That alone is close to 6X value, which is hard to pass up on DraftKings. While the Bucks have been great against point guards all season, that doesn't take into account that they recently gave the starting point guard role to rookie Malcolm Brogdon, which should bode well for Dragic, too.
Tony Allen, MEM at HOU ($4,500): This is more of a matchup selection, as Allen should be used heavily against this potent Rockets attack. What I especially like is the fact that they'll want Allen to match up with James Harden, who commits the most turnovers in the NBA. In the first game against Houston, Allen dropped 23 fantasy points in 29 minutes of action and he should be looking at a similar workload here. The price is the best part of this play though, as a $4,500 Allen has very little downside and huge upside in these circumstances.
Aaron Gordon, ORL at POR ($5,700): Gordon is playing the best ball of his career right now and is hard to pass up in this sort of matchup. Not only does he have at least 32 fantasy points in three of his last four, Gordon has played over 30 minutes across his last eight. This matchup is simply the icing on the cake though, as Portland ranks dead-last in defensive efficiency and 29th in fantasy points allowed to forwards. Someone this hot with this sort of matchup is impossible to overlook, especially under $6,000.
Derrick Favors, UTA vs. DET ($4,800): Favors has had a slow recovery from a knee injury this season, but he's finally starting to find his game and play some big minutes. In fact, Favors is averaging 28 minutes a game across his last five, while seeing an increase in his fantasy production nearly each contest. This is the sort of guy that's a $7,000 player when he's right too, as he's a double-double machine that can provide elite defensive statistics. What's also encouraging here is the matchup, as the Pistons have an undersized power forward group that simply can't match up with Favors.
DeMarre Carroll, TOR vs. BRK ($4,500): Much like Favors, Carroll has had a slow recovery from injury and is finally finding his form. What I like most about him is his usage, as he's averaging over 37 minutes a game across his last four. His production has been great in that span too (over 24 fantasy points on average). The price is the best part about using Carroll, as he's arguably the best bargain at small forward Friday against the worst defense in the NBA.
Marc Gasol, MEM at HOU ($6,900): Gasol has brought his game to a new level this season and this price and matchup make him the most attractive center on this slate. Not only is the Memphis center averaging nearly 40 fantasy points a game for the season, he's found himself as the focal point of this offense. That's evident by his 4.2 assists per game and he should be able to add to that total against this weak Houston defense. It's not just the defense that makes him a great play, as he'll be matched up against Montrezl Harrell and Nene Hilario, which are players he should have no problem getting the better of. The $6,900 price tag is the final piece to the puzzle though, as he was an $8,400 player less than two weeks ago.
Al Horford, BOS at ATL ($6,800): DraftKings continues to undervalue the stud center, as he's averaging 37 fantasy points per game for the year. What makes him so good is his ability to stuff the stat sheet, as he regularly flirts with triple-doubles while providing elite defensive statistics. This is a revenge game as well, as Horford spent nine years with the Hawks.
Mason Plumlee, POR vs ORL ($5,600): Let's continue our trend of using assisting big men with the much-improve Plumlee. The Portland center has been a revelation this season, as he's developing into one of the best passing bigs in the league. It's not just that, though, as he's a solid bet for a double-double in points and rebounds as well. Facing the Magic is tough for many centers given their frontcourt depth, but it should make Plumlee a near guarantee for 35 minutes, as they'll need him to match up with all of their impressive big men. A guy averaging 31 fantasy points a game should be well over $6,000, so a $5,600 Plumlee is a heck of a bargain.
