This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Saturday's evening NBA slate is a small one, with only two games starting after 7:00 p.m. EST. Below are the top value plays from the 76ers-Wizards and Magic-Jazz matchups:
GUARDS
Trey Burke, WAS vs. PHI ($10): With both John Wall (hand) and Tomas Satoransky (illness) listed as game-time decisions, Burke could be in line for a monopoly of the point guard minutes against the 21st-ranked 76ers defense. Even if Wall is able to play, the minimum-priced reserve could still see major minutes if the Wizards get up big on their 11-25 opponents.
George Hill, UTA vs. ORL ($25): On a night with few alternatives, Hill makes a lot of sense after averaging 29.1 fantasy points per game in three appearances since returning from a concussion. The Jazz guard gets the benefit of facing a middling Orlando defense, which makes him significantly more appealing than his Magic counterparts going against the top-ranked Utah defense. Hill has comfortably outplayed his $25 price this season when healthy, and he seems to be rolling on all cylinders at the moment.
Guard to Avoid
Sergio Rodriguez, PHI at WAS ($15): Rodriguez has seen a major dip in productivity since suffering a sprained ankle a few weeks ago, totaling just 13.7 fantasy points in two games since returning. T.J. McConnell's superb play in his absence has pushed the Spaniard to a bench role, which should result in a permanent drop in both minutes and production. There's not much of a buy-low opportunity here because Rodriguez's low output and low price are likely both here to stay.
FORWARDS
Markieff Morris, WAS vs. PHI ($18): Morris got off to a slow start shooting the ball, but he has continued to trend up as the season has worn on. Those improvements have been evident over the past three games, in which the forward has racked up an average of 34.2 fantasy points per game thanks in large part to his 17.7 points per per outing. His hot shooting should continue against a 76ers defense that has allowed 105.6 points per game. Morris is the only available forward to score over 30.0 fantasy points in three consecutive contests, giving him an unmatched combination of consistency and affordability.
Robert Covington, PHI at WAS ($22): Covington's ability to stuff the stat sheet makes him a safe play, as he doesn't need to score at a high rate to maintain value. Points also shouldn't be hard to come by against the Wizards, since Washington's porous defense ranks 22nd with 106.1 points allowed per game. Covington has shown his high floor in reaching at least 20.0 fantasy points in 12 of his past 14 games, and he shouldn't have any problems delivering in a prominent role that has seen him play at least 32 minutes in 10 of his past 12.
Forward to Avoid
Serge Ibaka, ORL at UTA ($29): Scoring is a major component of Ibaka's value, but matching his season average of 15.6 points per game will be awfully tough against the league's best defensive team. Utah has held opponents to just 94.9 points per game this season, and limited Ibaka to a measly eight points and 17.2 fantasy points in their previous meeting. There are plenty of more affordable options likely to outplay him.
CENTERS
Nerlens Noel, PHI at WAS ($12): Noel is slated to play major minutes in this one with Joel Embiid sitting out the second game of a back-to-back. He normally sees around 20 per game while the starter plays 28, but he could get closer to the 29.3 minutes per contest he saw last year in this situation. Considering Noel turned that playing time into 11.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.8 steals and 1.5 blocks per game last season, eclipsing his $12 valuation should be a cakewalk.
Nikola Vucevic, ORL at UTA ($26): While the vaunted Jazz defense won't make life easy for Vucevic, he has been outplaying his price by so much lately that even a slight decline would still result in strong bang for the buck. He has scored at least 37.7 fantasy points in six of his past eight appearances, but remains very affordable at just $26. His scoring and rebounding will be key if the Magic want to keep pace in Utah, so playing time is unlikely to be an issue, either.
Center to Avoid
Marcin Gortat, WAS vs. PHI ($23): While the 76ers will miss Embiid's defensive presence inside, Noel isn't much of a downgrade. Without an exploitable matchup, there's little reason to use Gortat given his pedestrian average of 22.9 fantasy points per game over the past three. The drop off from the $26 Vucevic to Gortat is pretty great, and it's tough to imagine a scenario in which you don't have the extra $3 given the lack of big-money players to choose from.
