This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defense to avoid: Miami Heat, vs IND: The Heat have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to guards and the fifth-fewest to forwards this season. They have been more vulnerable to centers, allowing the tenth-most to that position, but otherwise are a unit that could hold the Pacers under their expected value on Saturday.
Offenses to Use: Minnesota Timberwolves, at HOU: If one goes purely by fantasy points allowed this season, the choice here should be the Warriors against the Nets. The problem is, there is a serious chance that game ends in a blowout that causes starters to sit for large swatches of the second half. The Timberwolves at the Rockets could also be a blowout, but the Wolves are usually competitive and they've got some really high performers right now. Add in that the Rockets, partially due to their pace, have given up the second most fantasy points to centers and the 10th-most to forwards over the past 10 games, and the Timberwolves are the call here even if the Rockets have only given up the ninth-fewest fantasy points to guards over that stretch. Honorable mention to the 76ers against the Knicks.
Teams on Back-to-Backs:
First game: Hornets, Pelicans
Second game: Hawks, Nets, Bulls, Mavericks, Pacers, Heat, Timberwolves, 76ers
Andrew Wiggins, MIN at HOU ($8,100): Wiggins is dual-eligible at shooting guard and small forward in the DraftKings format, giving him extra positional flexibility. He is also on a scoring rampage, having scored at least 27 points in seven straight games, in which he has averaged 31.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 2.3 combined blocks/steals per game. On Saturday, he looks to be in a track meet against the high-powered Rockets that allow the 10th-most fantasy points to small forwards.
Ricky Rubio, MIN at HOU ($6,600): Rubio has scored more than 40 fantasy points in five of his last six games, including a 13 points, 14 assists, five rebounds, three steals effort on Friday against the Mavericks. Rubio's facilitation is a key to the Timberwolves offense, which will be necessary against the high-scoring Rockets even though they allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points to point guards this season.
Lou Williams, HOU vs MIN ($4,900): Williams was just traded to the Rockets, making him a bit of an unknown, but he knocked down seven treys and scored 27 points in his Rockets debut. While that exact level may not be sustainable, he has averaged 18.7 points on the season even on a Lakers team that evenly distributed shots, which suggests he can continue to score on a crowded Rockets perimeter.
LeBron James, CLE vs CHI ($11,000): James notched a triple-double in his first game out of the All-Star break, scoring 18 points with 15 assists, 13 rebounds and three blocked shots. He is a main attraction every game, but he has a marquee match-up against former teammate Dwyane Wade on Saturday. The Bulls have allowed the 14th-most fantasy points to small forwards over the past 10 games. James is listed as questionable with an illness as of Saturday afternoon, so be sure to verify his status prior to lineup lock.
Robert Covington, PHI at NY ($6,400): Covington and Dario Saric ($6,900) are the two primary options for the 76ers, as injuries and trades have left them with very little positional competition and both are playing at a high level. Covington is averaging 19.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.5 steals, 4.3 treys, 1.0 blocks and 1.5 assists over his last four games. On Saturday, he faces a Knicks team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to small forwards in the last 10 games.
Terrence Ross, ORL vs ATL ($4,500): Ross is the new starting small forward for the Magic, now that he's come to town in exchange for Serge Ibaka. He started in his Magic debut on Thursday, scoring 13 points with five rebounds, three steals and an assist in 33 minutes of play. On Saturday he faces a Hawks defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to small forwards over the past 10 games.
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN at HOU ($10,500): Towns has reached the point when elite production is just an expectation. He has averaged 27.9 points, 12.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.4 combined blocks/steals and a trey over his last 21 games. On Saturday, he faces a Rockets defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to centers over the past 10 games.
Myles Turner, IND at MIA ($5,700): Turner is quietly productive, averaging 16.8 points with 6.4 boards, 2.2 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocked shots over his last five games. On Saturday, he faces a Heat defense that has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to centers this season.
Robin Lopez, CHI at CLE ($4,700): Lopez has averaged 14 points, 6.9 boards and 1.2 blocked shots over his last 10 games. He has even more responsibility now, after the Taj Gibson deal, and is coming off scoring 19 points with six boards and a block on Friday. On Saturday he faces a Cavaliers defense that has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to centers over the last 10 games.
