This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defense To Avoid
Atlanta Hawks, vs. Memphis Grizzlies: The Hawks have beaten Memphis on three occasions over the last two seasons, including by a 107-90 margin on Saturday night. The Grizzlies will be on their third game in four nights and the second night of a road back-to-back, while the Hawks have tightened up on defense lately, giving up an average of 100.25 points over the last four games and already holding three other March opponents in addition to the Grizzlies under 100 points.
Offense To Use
Golden State Warriors, vs. Orlando Magic: The Warriors average 119.8 points at home and boast the league's highest field-goal percentage (49.0). The Magic give up 106.3 points per contest, currently ranking them 20th in the NBA while allowing the sixth-highest field-goal percentage (46.5) as well. The Warriors have found life difficult thus far without Kevin Durant (knee) but likely got a wake-up call Wednesday night when the Spurs' victory over the Hawks drew them even with the Warriors for best record in the NBA and the top seed in the West.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Raptors, Nets, Magic
Second game of a back-to-back: Jazz, Grizzlies, Clippers
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Stephen Curry, GS vs. ORL ($9,500): Obligatory disclaimer: Russell Westbrook ($13,000) is on the slate. Grab him if you can fit him in salary-wise. For those in need of a less expensive but high-ceiling alternative, Curry makes a strong case, considering he's scored between 42.25 and 55.5 fantasy points in six of his last seven games while sporting a 34.3 percent usage rate and averaging 1.30 DraftKings points per minute since March 2, the Warriors' first full game without Kevin Durant (knee). The Magic also check in giving up the seventh-most fantasy points (53.7) to point guards on the season, along with the third-highest field-goal percentage (45.3).
For those needing to save some cash, Chris Paul ($8,800) comes at a relative discount and in a good matchup, although his shooting, as we saw Wednesday night, can go in the tank on occasion. Mike Conley ($7,600) is also in a very good spot against Dennis Schroder's defense Thursday and coming off a terrific performance Wednesday.
Dennis Schroder, ATL vs. MEM ($6,400): That provides us a perfect segway into the mid-tier, where Schroder is in a rather unlikely good matchup in his own right against Conley. Despite the Grizzlies' excellent and well-earned defensive reputation, they've been susceptible to giving up point-guard production, yielding 51.4 fantasy points per game to the position, along with the third-most (58.3) over the last five games and fourth-most (58.7) over the last 10. Meanwhile, Schroder has scored over 40 fantasy points in three of his last four, 39.5 in the other game during that stretch and also compiled 40.3 fantasy points in his one previous meeting with Memphis this season.
For those with a bit more cash to spend, Klay Thompson ($7,000) and Derrick Rose ($6,700) are also in good spots at this tier Thursday, while cheaper options Jeremy Lin ($6,000), Gary Harris ($5,800) and Tim Hardaway, Jr. ($5,200) certainly hold appeal as well.
J.J. Redick, LAC at DEN ($4,300): Jamal Murray ($4,900) makes for an intriguing tournament play at the higher end of the affordable tier in this same matchup, but the Clippers do present a tough backcourt defense overall. The same can't be said of Denver, which has surrendered the third-most fantasy points (47.5), second-most points (23.3), second-most assists (4.7), 2.9 made three-pointers and the highest field-goal percentage (45.9) to two-guards on the season. Redick has averaged 32 fantasy points over his two previous games against the Nuggets and has cleared 20 fantasy points in three of the last five games, making him a viable option at his price.
Carmelo Anthony, NY vs. BKN ($8,100): LeBron James ($10,400) naturally is in play as well, even with the matchup against the Jazz (which he lit up for 51.5 fantasy points earlier in the season). For those looking to save $2K plus, Anthony isn't a bad fallback option against a Nets squad that he just went off for 41.25 fantasy points against on Saturday. He scored 43.75 against the Pacers in his most recent game as well, and Brooklyn is still surrendering the most fantasy points (50.3) to small forwards on the season, along with the most points (22.7), most rebounds (8.8), most steals (2.0) and second-highest field-goal percentage (47.3). Factor in the very likely absence of Kristaps Porzingis -- a scenario in which Anthony sports a 34 percent usage rate and averages 1.17 DraftKings points per minute – and Carmelo's case is even stronger.
Will Barton, DEN vs. LAC ($5,300): Barton checks in as a mid-tier bargain considering that he boasts a 25.1 percent usage rate and averages 1.08 DraftKings points per minute with Danilo Gallinari (knee), Wilson Chandler (groin), Darrell Arthur (rest) and Kenneth Faried (back) off the floor this season. All but Faried, who is questionable after missing the last nine games, are already ruled out Thursday, while Barton checks in averaging 36.2 fantasy points over three previous games against the Clippers this season. He's also scored between 20 and 37.5 fantasy points in six of his last 10 games while often seeing less run than what he's like to receive Thursday.
Matt Barnes, GS vs. ORL ($3,900): If Lance Thomas ($4,000) draws the start as expected for Kristaps Porzingis (thigh) on Thursday, he also presents as a viable option against a porous Nets squad, as does Tony Allen ($4,000) versus the Hawks. Juancho Hernangomez ($3,900) and Joe Ingles ($3,900) also make for serviceable tournament dart throws, with the former potentially poised for big minutes at small forward. Meanwhile, Barnes has scored 33.25 and 28.25 fantasy points, respectively, in his last two games, seeing 36 minutes in the former when the Warriors sat three starters and amassing the latter haul in just 22 minutes against the Sixers on Tuesday. While the playing time obviously can fluctuate, Barnes can fill up the stat sheet in a hurry and will draw a Magic squad that's surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points (46.0) on the season to small forwards, as well as the fourth-most (53.3) over the last five.
Draymond Green, GS vs. ORL ($8,000): Nikola Jokic ($10,600) is certainly an option if you've got the cash (28.2 percent usage rate, 1.64 DraftKings points per minute with Gallinari, Chandler, Faried and Arthur off the floor this season), but whether he'll be able provide a 5x-6x return on a price that's risen $1,800 over the last four games is at least up for debate. Meanwhile, Green checks in $2,600 cheaper and has scored between 34.25 and 62 fantasy points in six of the last seven games. His production is up since Kevin Durant's injury as well, as he's put up double-digit shot attempts in three of the last four and is averaging 1.11 DraftKings points per minute in the six games since. The Magic have also given up the second-most fantasy points (57.8) to power forwards over the last five, furthering Green's case.
Guillermo Hernangomez, NY vs. BKN ($6,200): Hernangomez was spectacular on Tuesday versus the Pacers, exploding for 46.5 fantasy points on the strength of a 13-point, 16-rebound double-double. He amassed a quick 22 fantasy points over 17 minutes against this same Nets squad last Saturday as well, and he owns a 20.7 percent usage rate and averages 1.01 DraftKings points per minute without Kristaps Porzingis (thigh) on the floor. He's slated to draw the start again Thursday against a Nets squad that ranks in the bottom 10 in multiple categories against centers, rendering him an appealing mid-tier play.
Ersan Ilyasova, ATL vs. MEM ($4,100): Ilyasova seems to have already hit his stride in Atlanta, as he's a steady part of the frontcourt rotation and has scored between 22 and 26.75 fantasy points in four of his last five games. He thrived against the Grizzlies this season in the two games he faced them while with the Sixers, and is averaging a whopping 38.1 fantasy points against them over three overall contests. While he's not likely to see the minutes that would facilitate that type of return, his aforementioned range of production would serve as a very appealing 5x-6x return on his current discounted price.
INJURY REPORT
For the latest news on injured players heading into the games, check out our Injury Updates page.
