This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defense to avoid: San Antonio Spurs, vs MEM. First of all, it's the playoffs, so no defense should be avoided as a whole. It's all about individual matchups. That said, the three best defenses in the NBA play on Saturday: the Jazz, the Grizzlies and the Spurs. But the Spurs are the only of those three teams that are playing at home, and really should be better than their opponents, which means that they are the one most likely to have more success holding their opponents down. But with that said, guys like Marc Gasol or Mike Conley can still be value plays if they are underpriced versus what they should produce.
Offenses to Use: Toronto Raptors, vs MIL. The Bucks are solid defensively, but on a day when all the defenses are strong, the Bucks have exploitable weaknesses in areas of strength for the Raptors. Particularly at point guard, where the Bucks ended the season on a lull and now have to face Kyle Lowry. The Bucks also went through several stretches of weakness in the middle, and the Raptors are solid there with Jonas Valanciunas finishing the season strong and Serge Ibaka making his mark as well.
Kyle Lowry, TOR vs MIL ($8,200): Lowry turned in two games over 51 fantasy points in his first three outings back after a long injury layoff, before coasting to 22 fantasy points in 17 minutes in the finale. He seems to be playing near full strength, and had some time to get re-integrated into the Raptors' offense before the season ended. On Saturday, he faces a Bucks defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to point guards in the last 10 games.
DeMar DeRozan, TOR vs MIL ($8,000): DeRozan earns this spot by dint of being the ONLY impact shooting guard on Saturday. He will be heavily owned, so you could be slick and try to fade him with a punt play with upside like J.R. Smith ($3,900) or Manu Ginobili ($3,600), but DeRozan is by far the safest shooting guard on the board on Saturday.
George Hill, UTA at LAC ($5,800): As mentioned in the DeRozan section, there are some almost punt-level value plays that could be worth a try today, and I'd include Tony Parker ($4200) in that category as well. But Hill is healthy, averaged more than 30 fantasy points in his last two games despite playing only 21 minutes per game, and has a chance to be a borderline impact player at borderline affordable price.
LeBron James, CLE vs IND ($10,800): James averaged 62 fantasy points in his last three games of the season, and the last time he faced the Pacers (less than two weeks ago) he exploded for 86.5 fantasy points in an overtime win. James has the inside track to be the highest scoring DFS producer on Saturday.
LaMarcus Aldridge, SA vs MEM ($6,200): Aldridge, like the other Spurs, coasted a bit down the stretch to be fresh for the playoffs. Plus, the Grizzlies are one of the best defenses in the NBA. But, Aldridge has averaged 35.1 fantasy points in four games against the Grizzlies this season, and should be playing at full speed and energy for the playoffs.
Thaddeus Young, IND at CLE ($5,600): Young scored between 30 and 42 fantasy points in five of his last eight games, and his minimum game in that stretch was 23.5 fantasy points in the finale. He's playing consistently strong basketball, and in two games against the Cavaliers in the regular season he was good for 28.6 fantasy points per games.
Rudy Gobert, UTA at LAC ($8,300): Gobert averaged 19 points, 13.7 rebounds, 3.5 blocks and 1.5 assists in the 13 games leading up to the season finale. Included in that stretch was a 26-point/14-rebound performance less than three weeks ago, against the same Clippers team that he faces on Saturday.
Marc Gasol, MEM at SA ($7,000): Gasol is an elite center, but he was injured for an extended stretch. He came back, had two games of 40.5 and 48.3 fantasy points, then coasted to only 24 minutes played in the last two games of the season. He has the reasonable potential to be the most productice DFS center on Saturday, so his depressed price makes him value.
Pau Gasol, SA vs MEM ($5,100): Despite playing short minutes (23.3 mpg) in the last five games of the season, Gasol was still productive with 27.1 fantasy points per game. He's another of the Spurs vets that should be playing at higher intensity, and perhaps higher minutes, now that it's the postseason. Plus, Pau will be matched up with his little brother Marc, and while Marc is a dominant defensive center there is still something to be said for a big brother's pride against his kid brother.
