This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defense to avoid: Boston Celtics, vs CHI - As mentioned yesterday, there are no team defenses to avoid in the playoffs, as everything is about individual matchups.The Celtics earn this spot, then, because they have done a good job against Jimmy Butler in four regular-season games and the Bulls have both Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade back playing without a minutes limit — a formula that wasn't really good for any of their fantasy values earlier this season. That said, a player like Rondo or Nikola Mirotic could still be recommended based on estimate value vs price, so don't take this "defense to avoid" section too seriously.
Offense to Use: Oklahoma City Thunder, at HOU - The Rockets are a good team because their offense is oppressive to opponents, but their defense and fast pace mean they give up a lot of fantasy points. Also, almost all the skill players on the Thunder performed better against the Rockets than the rest of the league this year (based on average fantasy-point production).
Russell Westbrook, OKC at HOU ($13,800): Westbrook averaged 65.7 fantasy points in just over 34 minutes on the season, and 65.8 fantasy points in 37 minutes in four games against the Rockets. Also, OKC's coaches have suggested they were somewhat limiting his minutes this season and would start playing him more in the playoffs, which would obviously be a bonus for DFS purposes.
C.J. McCollum, POR at GS ($7000): McCollum fared better against the Warriors in relation to his season average. In four games against the Warriors, he averaged 36.1 fantasy points in only 31.6 minutes per game. He will be called upon to carry a heavy load in the postseason as well, as that is the only way that the Trail Blazers will have a chance to keep the series competitive.
Kevin Durant, GS vs POR ($8800): Durant returned from his long injury layoff to average 44.2 fantasy points in three games, which each game yielding more production than the last. He seems to be approaching full strength, but still has an attenuated price going into a series with the Trail Blazers against whom he averaged 51.7 fantasy points in four games.
Draymond Green, GS vs POR ($6900): Green averaged 9.5 assists, 8.3 rebounds, 5.8 points, 2.3 steals and 1.3 blocks in four games against the Warriors this season. This was good for 36.9 fantasy points in about 30 minutes.
Markieff Morris, WAS vs ATL ($5000): Morris ended the season averaging 29.9 fantasy points in the two games that he played after his injury. Meanwhile, he's played significantly better than his season numbers in four games against the Hawks this year (33.9 in just under 30 minutes).
Dwight Howard, ATL at WAS ($6800): Howard averaged 35.7 fantasy points in just under 30 minutes this season and played particularly well against the Wizards. Perhaps it was the motivation of going up against his former teammate and backup Marcin Gortat, but for whatever reason, Howard has averaged 40.4 fantasy points in about 31 minutes in four games against the Wizards.
Clint Capela, HOU vs OKC ($5600): Capela has been solid in his first season replacing Dwight Howard as the main center in Houston. He has scored between 22.8 and 46 fantasy points in each of his last 10 games, with an expected value in the very high 20s or low 30s of fantasy points. In three games against the Thunder, he has averaged in that same range with 28.4 fantasy points in just over 22 minutes.
Steven Adams, OKC at HOU ($4400): Adams averaged 26.1 fantasy points on the season and produced three straight games between 27.5 and 30.3 fantasy points before coasting in the finale. In four games against the Rockets this season, he has averaged 27.5 fantasy points in 29 minutes.
