This article is part of our FantasyDraft NBA series.
Thursday's slate may be limited to five games, but there are some intriguing value plays as a result of long-term injuries to a pair of big men. Additionally, there's a potential shootout between the Bulls and Nuggets, while the Bucks and Trail Blazers face off in what could be one of the most tightly contested games of the night. With a host of options to consider, let's dive into some of the best plays at each tier:
GUARDS:
Premium Option
Ben Simmons, PHI at BOS ($17,600):Joel Embiid will sit out Thursday's contest for rest, putting Simmons firmly in play despite the fact he just logged 40 minutes on Wednesday evening. Simmons boasts a 31.5 percent usage rate and averages 1.32 fantasy points per minute without Embiid on the floor, and he's scored between 48.00 and 66.00 fantasy points in five of his last six games, with the high end of that range having come Wednesday. The Celtics have been playing stingy defense all season and have been tough versus power forwards, but Simmons' talent has transcended virtually every matchup thus far. With what should be some extra responsibility down low Thursday, he's worthy of the investment in cash or GPPs.
Mid-Tier
Damian Lillard, POR vs. MIL ($15,600): Lillard has scored between 42.25 and 57.00 fantasy points in the last four games and is now averaging 44.38 fantasy points per contest on the campaign. Those are all very strong returns at his current price, and the Bucks could facilitate more of the same in what should be a competitive matchup. Milwaukee has allowed 45.3 fantasy points per game to point guards, along with the second most made three pointers (2.7) to the position, furthering Lillard's already strong case.
Affordable
Kris Dunn, CHI at DEN ($12,200): Dunn's production has been all over the map, but the upside he's demonstrated certainly makes him worthy of a tournament play. He went off for 48.50 fantasy points Tuesday versus the Suns and has crossed 30 fantasy points on four other occasions. The Nuggets check in allowing the fifth most fantasy points (50.9) per game to point guards, including an even more generous 55.4 fantasy points over the last five. They're also ranked in the bottom 10 in points (23.4) and assists (9.9) surrendered to the position on the season and have allowed the second most steals (2.6) to ones, while Dunn has recorded multiple thefts in five of the last seven contests.
FORWARDS/CENTERS:
Premium
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at POR ($19,600): Naturally, LeBron James ($21,800) is always under consideration, but Antetokounmpo offers the same upside at over $2K cheaper. He's also in a more favorable positional matchup, as the Trail Blazers have yielded 45.0 fantasy points per game to power forwards over the last five, along with the most blocks (2.0) to the position on the season. Antetokounmpo has eclipsed 50 fantasy points in three of his last four, with double-doubles in a pair of those games. With a team-high usage rate of 33.0 percent and an average of 1.46 fantasy points per minute, he stands an excellent chance of providing a solid return in what should be a back-and-forth affair.
Mid-Tier
Kevin Love, CLE at ATL ($14,500): Love blew up for 56.75 fantasy points against the Heat on Tuesday, as he took on a larger role after LeBron James was ejected in the third quarter. While his usage may not be quite up to the same level with LeBron back on the floor Thursday, his reasonable price and appealing matchup still put him squarely in play. The Hawks have been vulnerable to centers throughout the season, and will be even thinner in the frontcourt Thursday with Dewayne Dedmon now out with a leg injury. Atlanta has surrendered the seventh most fantasy points (39.6) and a 52.0 percent success rate from the field to fives on the campaign, while Love's 46.1 shooting percentage is his best since the 2010-11 season.
Affordable
John Collins, ATL vs. CLE ($10,800): Collins is primed to start at center for the time being due to Dedmon's aforementioned injury, but his bargain price doesn't quite reflect his new opportunity. The rookie has averaged 1.09 fantasy points per minute with Dedmon off the floor this season and should be in for plenty of run Thursday against a Cavaliers defense that's allowed the third highest shooting percentage (58.0) to centers on the season. Before an atypical 19-minute appearance against the Raptors in his last contest, Collins had scored between 20.00 and 39.50 fantasy points in his prior six games, and he's eclipsed 30 fantasy points on seven occasions overall in his rookie season despite making only three starts.
UTILITY:
Donovan Mitchell, UTA at LAC ($13,400): Mitchell is in a fine spot Thursday versus a Clippers defense that's allowed a whopping 64.6 fantasy points to two-guards over the last five, a full 18 fantasy points over their season average. They've also yielded an average of 34.8 points, 10.4 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 3.6 steals to the position over that span, along with five made three-pointers per contest. Meanwhile, Mitchell has scored between 30.50 and 41.50 fantasy points in four of the last six games and hasn't tallied less than 20.75 fantasy points since Nov. 7.
Montrezl Harrell, LAC vs. UTA ($6,800): Much like Collins, Harrell is slated for a major boost in opportunity due to an injury in front of him, as he's projected to be the first man up in Blake Griffin's (knee) stead. Harrell has seen very limited action this season, yet has managed to score double-digit fantasy points on six occasions despite seeing double-digit minutes in only four contests. Given his price, expanded playing time and efficient 1.15 fantasy points per minute thus far in a modest bench role, Harrell could potentially finish as one of the best fantasy-point-per-dollar values on the short slate. Additionally, despite the Jazz normally being a stay-away matchup for fantasy purposes, it's worth noting they're ranked in the bottom half of the league against fours, including allowing the fourth most rebounds (12.7) per game. Moreover, the 48.9 fantasy points per contest they've allowed to power forwards over the last five games is a full eight fantasy points higher than their season average.
